Well, tonight's the night. The Democrats' hopes lie in staving off Republican challengers to a dozen Senate districts they hold, while maybe, if they're lucky, picking up one of the two seats they've targeted. Virginia's results generally come in from the rural areas first, so we may have a fairly early picture of how things will turn out, since two of the biggest races are in the rural part of the state, SD-20 and SD-38. Just as a reminder, it will take a three-seat net pickup for the Republicans to take total control of the Senate; a two-seat pickup will give them de facto control on the floor, as Republican Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling will be the tie-breaking vote, but committees would be split 50-50 between the two parties.
Results from the Virginia State Board of Elections are here: Senate | House
Live updates:
11:34 PM - I give up, I'm going to bed.
11:24 PM - I think I'm talking to myself at this point, but I'm projecting Joseph Yost picking up HD-12 for the Republicans..
11:17 PM - Now with all precincts in they're reporting an 86-vote lead for Reeves. God... Anyway, it looks like I can now project Dave Marsden to hold SD-37 for the Democrats and George Barker to hold SD-39 for the Democrats.
11:07 PM - Oh, fuck, I knew this was going to happen. Tabulation errors happened in SD-17, so now (with all precincts in) Bryce Reeves leads by 166 votes. Not that it matters now, but I'll project Toddy Puller to hold SD-36 for the Democrats.
11:00 PM - Looks like it's all down to Barker. Marsden and Puller are looking likely to win at this point. Barker's down to a 53-47 lead with 61% in. If the current numbers are indicative of what's left, Barker wins. I have no idea if that's true, however. Looking at local races: the Democrats are getting pulverized in Loudoun County; they're currently losing every single Board of Supervisor race (they won 5 of the 9 seats in 2007, as I recall). Prince William County BoS Chairman Corey Stewart is thumping his opponents 57-27-15. The one competitive BoS race in Fairfax (I guess John Foust's omnipresent google ads worked; he's winning 60-40) is a slight lead for Democrat Janet Oleszek over Republican incumbent John Cook. And here in Virginia Beach, the anti-tax nutjob John Moss won a special election to the city council. Great.
10:41 PM - Projections: John Edwards holds SD-21 for the Democrats. Randy Minchew picks up HD-10 for the Republicans, Mike Watson picks up HD-93 for the Republicans.
10:33 PM - The Spotsylvania precinct came in and Houck maintains a 124-vote lead. Barring any tabulation errors, I think he's got it. I will hold off a projection since there is likely to be a recount anyway. I will, however, project Chuck Colgan holding SD-29 for the Democrats.
10:27 PM - Houck's Albemarle precinct came in, he's up to a 198-vote lead now. The last Spotsylvania precinct is Brents Mill, which gave McDonnell 766 votes and Deeds 328 votes. The last Fredericksburg precinct is the absentee precinct. This one is going to a recount, I'm sure. SD-21: Montgomery County is finally starting to report. Maybe I'll be able to call that one soon. Puller and Marsden still holding on, Barker's lead still 54-46, Colgan still at 55-45.
10:06 PM - Projection: Jim LeMunyon holds HD-67 for the Republicans.
9:54 PM - Projected winner (sigh): Dick Black holds SD-13 for the Republicans. Houck is up to a 151-vote lead with one precinct left in Albemarle, Spots, and Fredericksburg. Looking optimistic there. Colgan at 55-45 in SD-29, 53% in. Puller and Marsden both at 53%. Barker's lead keeps shrinking, if he costs the Dems the majority after having helped to draw the goddamn map...
9:45 PM - Houck has extended his lead... to 37 votes. 6 precincts left, 3 from Albemarle, 2 from Spotsylvania, and 1 from Fredericksburg, so mostly favorable territory. They're taking a ganja break in MontCo, still no results. In SD-36, Puller is ahead in PWC now, if she maintains that, it's all over for J-Fred. Marsden maintains a small lead in SD-37. In SD-39 Barker's down to 55-45, and is still losing Fairfax and PWC. Making me nervous here. House projection: Barbara Comstock holds HD-34 for the Republicans.
9:25 PM - Houck/Reeves is still all tied up; Houck is now up by 4 votes with 87% in. Spotsylvania and Albemarle still have precincts out. SD-29, Colgan is at 54-46 with 38% in. SD-36 is looking good, Puller is at 52-48 with more Fairfax outstanding than PWC. Marsden up 52-48 now in SD-37. SD-39 is troubling, Barker is currently down in both PWC and Fairfax; he's at 58-42 overall. Over in the House, HD-10 is not looking good, Randy Minchew is up 55-45 with 23% in. Jim LeMunyon starts out with a 55-45 lead in HD-67.
Races to Watch: (projected winners in bold)
Democratic-Held Seats
SD-01 - John Miller (D) vs. Mickey Chohany (R)
SD-17 - Edd Houck (D) vs. Bryce Reeves (R)
SD-20 - Roscoe Reynolds (D) vs. Bill Stanley (R) and Jeff Evans (I)
SD-21 - John Edwards (D) vs. Dave Nutter (R)
SD-29 - Chuck Colgan (D) vs. Tom Gordy (R)
SD-31 - Barbara Favola (D) vs. Caren Merrick (R)
SD-36 - Toddy Puller (D) vs. Jeff Frederick (R)
SD-37 - Dave Marsden (D) vs. Jason Flanary (R)
SD-38 - Phil Puckett (D) vs. Adam Light (R)
SD-39 - George Barker (D) vs. Miller Baker (R)
HD-02 - Esteban Garces (D) vs. Mark Dudenhefer (R)
HD-10 - David Butler (D) vs. Randy Minchew (R)
HD-12 - Don Langrehr (D) vs. Joseph Yost (R)
HD-64 - Bill Barlow (D) vs. Richard Morris (R)
HD-87 - Mike Kondratick (D) vs. David Ramadan (R)
HD-93 - Robin Abbott (D) vs. Mike Watson (R)
HD-99 - Nick Smith (D) vs. Margaret Ransone (R)
Republican-Held Seats
SD-13 - Shawn Mitchell (D) vs. Dick Black (R)
SD-22 - Bert Dodson (D) vs. Tom Garrett (R)
HD-09 - Ward Armstrong (D) vs. Charles Poindexter (R)
HD-21 - Adrianne Bennett (D) vs. Ron Villanueva (R)
HD-34 - Pam Danner (D) vs. Barbara Comstock (R)
HD-67 - Eric Clingan (D) vs. Jim LeMunyon (R)
HD-94 - Gary West (D) vs. David Yancey (R)
Older updates
9:10 PM - Projection: John Miller holds SD-01 for the Democrats. Not looking likely for a pickup in SD-13, however, Shawn Mitchell is down 43-57 with 6 precincts in. Reeves and Houck still tied... In SD-36, Puller pretty much running where she needs to be to (barely) win. Marsden/Flanary tied in SD-37. Over in the House, projection: Charles Poindexter holds HD-09 for the Republicans. Barbara Comstock starting out with a 56-44 lead in HD-34, with 4 precincts in. David Ramadan leading in HD-87, 54-46 with 4 precincts in. Robin Abbott is struggling to get past the finish line in HD-93, she's down by 366 votes with 3 precincts to go. Probably not going to happen, but who knows.
9:00 PM - Hurry the hell up, Fairfax, I have to work tomorrow. Miller is on the cusp of winning SD-01. Houck and Reeves are tied up in HD-17 (it's going to depend on how friendly the remaining Spotsylvania precincts are for Houck). Projection: Bill Stanley picks up SD-20 for the Republicans. Colgan up to 55-45 in SD-29 with 32% in. Projection: Barbara Favola holds SD-31 for the Democrats. Puller's pulled into the lead in SD-36, but she really needs to tighten up the PWC numbers. Projection: Phil Puckett holds SD-38 for the Democrats. Barker's at 62-38 with some non-Alexandria precincts in. Not looking too bad for him right now.
8:40 PM - House projections: Ron Villanueva holds HD-21 for the Republicans, Rick Morris picks up HD-64 for the Republicans, David Yancey holds HD-94 for the Republicans.
8:35 PM - SD-01 has tightened up a bit, Miller's now up 52-48 with 73% in. Looking good for him, though. Houck maintains a 1-point lead in SD-17 with 46% in; good news for him is Albemarle is still out. SD-20 is going down to the wire, Reynolds is down by 1% with 83% in. Roanoke gives John Edwards a 57-43 lead in SD-21 with 63% in; still waiting on MontCo. Projection: Tom Garrett holds SD-22 for the Republicans. Ugh, Toddy Puller is still down 47-53, but only with 15% in. Marsden also starts off down in SD-37, 48-52 with 3 precincts in. Puckett maintains his lead in SD-38. Barker is up to 71-29 in SD-39, but only with Alexandria in.
8:24 PM - Let's look at the House again. Ward is down 49-51 in HD-09 now. Judging by what's left, I don't think it looks good for him. HD-12, the Republicans' money is buying them an early lead; Don Langrehr is down 38-62 with 35% in, but nothing from Montgomery. Villanueva maintains a big lead in HD-21. Barlow is trailing in HD-64, and some of that is Isle of Wight; his goose is probably cooked. Robin Abbott leads 54-46 in HD-93 with 50% in; Yancey leads 57-43 with 46% in for HD-94. And a projection: Mark Dudenhefer picks up HD-02 for the Republicans.
8:16 PM - I was afraid we were in the midst of a jenga break, but we got some more results in. SD-01 is looking very good for John Miller; he's still up 54-46 with 52% in. We've got one precinct in for SD-13, Dick Black up 53-47. Edd Houck has pulled ahead in SD-17, up by 1% with 30% in. SD-20 inches closer to completion, with 69% in, Reynolds is down by 1.5%. SD-22 is in full swing, Edwards is up 54-46 with 44% in; this one's going to depend on how Nutter did in Montgomery County. Dodson still not getting any traction in SD-22, I may call this one soon. Colgan has inched up to 53-47 with 21% in. Favola still dominating SD-31; once I see something outside of Arlington, I'll probably call that one for her. SD-38 has tightened up, Puckett is only up 51-49 with 56% in.
8:05 PM - SD-20 seems to be a problem spot; Reynolds is still down 45-48 with half of the precincts in. SD-21, Edwards is now up 51-49 with 27% in. Dodson continues to trail in SD-22. Chuck Colgan is barely ahead in SD-28 with 11% in. 2 precincts have come in for SD-36, Puller is down by 21 votes, but those are in Stafford County, the southern tip of the district. Puckett continues to lead, 53-47 with 43% in. Also, time to make my first projection (sorry, Barbara): Margaret Ransone picks up HD-99 for the Republicans. It was always expected, so this is just a formality.
7:48 PM - House update 2: Ward is up 51-49 in HD-09; HD-64, Bill Barlow starts out ahead with a couple precincts in Franklin; HD-93, Robin Abbott starts out ahead 74-26 with one Newport News precinct in;
7:45 PM - SD-01, Miller is up to 55-45. SD-17, Bryce Reeves has pulled ahead 53-47 with 13% in. 26% in for SD-20, it's tightened up, Reynolds is down by only 1.5%. SD-20, Nutter still leads, but only with three precincts in. SD-22 does not look promising, Dodson is down everywhere but Lynchburg. SD-38 does look good, Puckett remains ahead 56-44 with 20% in.
7:38 PM - First round of House updates: HD-09, Ward Armstrong is down 48-52. HD-12, Don Langrehr is up 56-44 with a couple precincts in. One precinct in HD-21, Villanueva leads 58-42. HD-94, David Yancey leads 61-39 with three precincts in.
7:35 PM - More early results: in SD-01, John Miller barely leads with a few precincts in from Newport News. He needs to win there, that's the majority of the district. Two precincts in SD-17, Edd Houck has a 5-point lead. Only one precinct in SD-21, which Dave Nutter won 2-1. Dodson drops to 45% in SD-22. Big early lead for Barbara Favola in SD-31, she's up 74-26 with two precincts from Arlington. Puckett is up to a 56-44 lead in SD-38, while one Alexandria precinct gives Barker a 76-24 lead out of the gate.
7:25 PM - Some early results in; three precincts in SD-20 and Bill Stanley has a huge lead over Roscoe Reynolds. In SD-22, Bert Dodson narrowly trails Tom Garrett. SD-38 looks promising; Phil Puckett is leading Adam Light, including in a couple Tazewell County precincts (Light needs to do well there to win).
7:00 PM - Polls have closed, we should see some results coming in in about the next 20-30 minutes.