Platts is an energy industry mouthpiece of a higher caliber, a sort of set of "paper of record" where valuable well researched essays can be used to determine what's on the mind of the worlds energy experts. It generally appears, to me anyway, pro-fossil fuel, slightly, over other forms of energy. The real mouthpiece for fossil is, of course, Energy Tribune which is also good to read what's on the minds of this or that fossil fuel tycoon, but also links extensively to other papers of record for energy news items.
But I digress. The above mentioned Platts has their latest issue of Insight with a detailed overview of several important areas for Asia. They do these regional reviews now and again, I think for their November issues, which looks ahead for the following years.
This issues covers everything from generation, coal, renewables (meaning wind and solar, not hydro) plus country-by-country reports. Page 24 of this latest issue starts their nuclear overview, including Japan.
My focus here will be on S. Korea, China (PRC) and India.
Soutk Korea:
Insights makes an interesting observation:
South Korean enterprises are among those hoping to pick up overseas contracts at the expense of Japanese companies. They also appear to have the advantage of relatively limited opposition to the country’s domestic nuclear program, with one post-Fukushima opinion poll showing strong support for retaining the nuclear option.
This is taken up in the second paragraph below after parsing the numbers of the ROK expansion of nuclear energy even in light of Fukushima:
South Korean enterprises are among those hoping to pick up overseas contracts at the expense of Japanese companies. They also appear to have the
advantage of relatively limited opposition. Nuclear power is thus seen as critical by Kepco, which through KHNP owns 21 reactors with 18,716 MW of capacity. It also has seven reactors with 8,600 MW of capacity under construction for operation from 2017, as part of the 17,200 MW of nuclear capacity at 13 sites planned for operation between 2011 and 2024.
Nuclear power is equally important for the government, both for domestic security and overseas trade reasons. With successes already chalked up in countries such as the United Arab Emirates, but setbacks in tenders in Vietnam and Turkey, the Ministry of Strategy and Finance is setting up a one-stop shop to coordinate the supply of equipment, services and finance for overseas nuclear ventures.
What does this show? It shows that the much ballyhooed "death of the nuclear industry" is simply so much wishful thinking. At least in terms of Korea's expanding economy shows. To translate these numbers, it means that effectively ROK is going to increase it's %35 nuclear share of the grid to well over 45%...all the to the detriment of coal and gas (the latter of which is likely to expand anyway, which will be the subject of another essay). That in real terms because of the very high capacity factor of Korean nuclear energy means that nuclear today produced %45 of the energy generation and is heading to over 65% by 2024.
CHINA:
From Insights:
With 14 operational reactors with 11,271 MW of capacity at August 2011, increasing mainland Chinese nuclear capacity to 70,000 MW by 2020 will be a major but not unachievable effort. Some 27 reactors with 29,930 MW of capacity were under construction in September 2011, with a further 51 reactors with 58,770 MW of capacity then listed as firmly planned by the World Nuclear Association.
Beyond that there is a further tranche of proposed capacity. The 150 or so proposed reactors together have 154,000 MW [154GW-DW] of capacity, meaning that China hosts more than 240 identified projects with around 254,000 MW of proposed, planned, constructing and operational capacity.
Official plans say that about 200,000MW of this capacity will be operational by 2030, while by 2050 the government target is for up to 500,000 MW of capacity. By 2100, about 1,400,000 MW of nuclear plant is envisaged.
To give the reader a comparative understanding of the significance of these new builds, the US has "only" 100GWs of nuclear. Chine is aiming for 15 times this number by the end of this century, most of this of the Fast Reactor models, breeding it's own, sustainable, fuel.
India:
Insights notes:
Operational Indian nuclear capacity comprises 4,385 MW at 20 reactors. The figure is planned to jump to 62,000 MW by 2032.
The article goes onto explain the growing opposition to nuclear energy among some of India's political types and among locals where the plants are to be built. We've covered elsewhere the 3 phase nuclear program being developed by India that will boom it's nuclear generation out to this high 63GW capacity based on solid-fuel thorium fuel, of which India has one of the largest deposits (the Thorium Beaches of Kerala province).
The conclusion one makes here is that nuclear is doing 'just fine' in Asia, Fukushima notwithstanding. That Japan will now never meet's lower carbon goals goes without saying.