It's now T-minus 24 hours until the 2012 race for the White House begins in earnest with the first actual tallying of votes. Pollsters understand the importance of these early battles--which might explain why it is possible that, in the wake of a weekend that also coincided with one of the most festive holidays of them all, we have enough polls to conduct a legitimate Polling Wrap.
So, with that in mind, let's check out the numbers that accumulated over the weekend. Predictably, all of them are exploring the Republican primary in either Iowa or New Hampshire.
IOWA (American Research Group): Romney 22, Paul 17, Santorum 16, Gingrich 15, Perry 9, Bachmann 8, Huntsman 4, Roemer 1
IOWA (Insider Advantage): Romney 23, Paul 22, Santorum 18, Gingrich 16, Perry 10, Bachmann 6, Huntsman 2
IOWA (PPP Tracking Poll): Paul 20, Romney 19, Santorum 18, Gingrich 14, Perry 10, Bachmann 8, Huntsman 4, Roemer 2
IOWA (Selzer/Des Moines Register): Romney 24, Paul 22, Santorum 15, Gingrich 12, Perry 11, Bachmann 7, Huntsman 2
NEW HAMPSHIRE (Magellan): Romney 41, Paul 21, Gingrich 12, Huntsman 12, Bachmann 4, Santorum 4, Perry 3
NEW HAMPSHIRE (Suffolk University Tracking Poll): Romney 43, Paul 17, Huntsman 9, Gingrich 8, Santorum 3, Bachmann 2, Perry 2, Roemer 1
Analysis below the fold.
For those who want extended analysis of how the Iowa caucuses will be won, I will direct your attention to the analysis I wrote this morning based off of the PPP and Selzer/DMR polls. The new data today (from ARG! and Insider Advantage) don't do much to change the calculus there.
One does have to start to wonder, however, if the Iowa outcome will mean less than normal if it devolves into what will essentially be a three-way tie.
This one will really, regrettably, come down to how the press plays the caucuses. If someone wins it with 24 percent, and two other hopefuls are at 20 percent or more, will they play it as a win, or a three-way tie?
One also has to wonder about New Hampshire. In theory, ekeing out a win in Iowa, coupled with a dominating win in New Hampshire, should put Mitt Romney on the fast track to the GOP nomination. But New Hampshire is essentially a home game for Romney, and therefore it is hard to see him getting much credit if he runs up the score the way he looks to, according to both Magellan and Suffolk.
Romney is still in fine shape, however. His nightmare scenario is an unambiguous Santorum win tomorrow, and while that might be possible, it doesn't seem likely. Santorum definitely has had a wind at his back over the last week, but every poll here (all of which were in the field over the last few days) had him in third place.
If a Santorum victory in Iowa does happen, however, Romney might start shitting bricks. Because the clearest way to deny Romney the nomination is if Santorum becomes the clear anti-Mitt, and some of the other pretenders bow out of the race. If Santorum wins with a little daylight between him and Romney tomorrow, it makes that scenario much more plausible.
Needless to say, there will be a lot for us to pay attention to tomorrow night, when "the only poll that counts" takes place in Iowa.