I just watched Rick Santorum's Iowa caucus victory speech -- or what was essentially a victory speech, and not only that but an introduction speech to the American people.
I am worried. He is going to be a formidable candidate not only in the primary, but also in the general election if he makes it past Mitt Romney. And if his performance tonight, both in the voting and the speaking is any indication, he will do just that.
Most of the commentary on this site about Santorum has been to joke about his name. That may be a mistake. Rick Santorum is positioning himself as the one Republican candidate who can appeal not only to Evangelical Christians -- as he is often pigeonholed -- but also to the disgruntled working class in Rust Belt states.
First, why does Santorum have a realistic shot to get the Republican nomination? Simple: he is a good speaker, conservative, likeable to the average Republican voter, and will quickly become the consensus Not-Romney candidate. Since Romney basically has a hard ceiling of about one-third of the vote among Republicans, Santorum can win if he can raise enough money to keep going and fight the nomination battle to the end. Frothy mix? Yeah, a frothy mix of pain and disappointment for the perennial plastic candidate Mitt Romney, as he watches a likeable "true conservative" shatter his presidential ambitions.
Second, why does Santorum have a realistic chance to win the presidency against Barack Obama? Simple: he is positioning himself as a populist, and will be strong in precisely the areas where Obama is weak. Santorum appears to have a smart strategy of speaking to issues that appeal to the old "Reagan Democrats" and Hillary Clinton voters in the traditional midwestern swing states whom Obama had trouble attracting to his side. In his big speech tonight, he emphasized restoring American manufacturing and bringing jobs home that have been outsourced overseas. How he could actually do that with the policies he supports is another question -- and I think it's actually quite absurd -- but most voters respond to rhetoric and narrative frames rather than detailed policy arguments. And the story he told about his working-class, coal miner grandfather was pitch perfect.
So, the bottom line is this: It's time to put away the rancid jokes about a "frothy mix coming from behind" and actually take Santorum seriously. People don't care what his name is -- only liberal activists will see that as a "problem" for him. Most ordinary Americans will see a clean cut family man who is a solid Christian, conservative but not overtly crazy, not a corporate whore, and who talks about restoring American manufacturing jobs. I'm sorry to say, but that's going to be a tough race for Barack Obama if Santorum is the opponent he must face.
If you really care about Obama getting reelected, you better hope that Mitt Romney will be the nominee, not Rick Santorum. Santorum may in fact be Obama's worst nightmare, out of all the Republican candidates running this year.
P.S. I don't actually like Rick Santorum. In fact, I disagree with almost everything he stands for -- even more than I disagree with most Republican candidates, who are not quite as ultra-conservative on social issues. I am just trying to provide some reasonable political analysis about him and his chances, rather than the typical articles that have been appearing on this site lately in which he is mocked as a non-serious candidate whom nobody would vote for because of the repulsive slang term that comes up on Google.