Yes, Iowa was close. Yes, Newt finished fourth, which is where John McCain finished in Iowa four years ago.
Here's what the media won't report: Iowa is losing Republicans like crazy. At least, they're losing the caucus-going kind, which is the kind that might actually volunteer to campaign for a candidate.
Here are the numbers:
In 2008, there were contested primaries in Iowa for both Democrats and Republicans. In Iowa, independents can go to caucuses, but they have to choose which one, and have to declare themselves, at least nominally, a member of one or the other party.
The total number of votes cast in the GOP caucus in Iowa in 2008 was
Huckabee 40954
Romney 30021
Thompson 15960
McCain 15536
Paul 11841
Giuliani 4099
Hunter 506
Keyes 247
Others 24
TOTAL 119,188
Now let's look at the demographics of that, using CNN's 2008 entrance poll.
Scroll down to "Vote by Party ID" and we find that 13% of GOP caucus-goers in 2008 identified themselves as independents, and 86% as Republicans. So the number of non-independent Republicans at the 2008 caucus amounted to
86% x 119,188 = 102,502
Now let's take a look at the 2012 results from last night. The total number of votes cast was:
Santorum 29944
Romney 29926
Paul 26163
Gingrich 16210
Perry 12574
Bachmann 6064
Hunstman 744
No pref 133
Other 117
Cain 58
Roemer 31
TOTAL 121,964
But according to the 2012 CNN entrance poll, the number of independents at the GOP caucus jumped significantly, to 23%. This is not surprising, since the Dems don't have a contested race, the Indies can all go over to the GOP. So we expect that. And 2% of the GOP caucus goers identified as Democrats, who presumably showed up as spoilers, or to vote for Ron Paul. (If the Dems had had a contested race, those people would have caucused Dem, as they did in '08). That leaves only 75% of caucus goers Republicans.
So the number of non-independent Republicans at the 2012 caucus amounted to:
75% x 121,964 = 91,473
In four years, the number of Republicans in Iowa, who call themselves Republicans and are committed enough to the Party to get to a caucus, has dropped from 102,500 to 91,500: a 10% decline. Eleven thousand people in four years. In Iowa.
In '08, Obama spanked McCain in Iowa by 148,000 votes, 54% to 45%. There is no indication from these numbers that it's going to be much different this time around.