Iowan Republicans to their candidates: meh.
Mitt Romney received exactly 6 votes less than he did in 2008. In 2008, Romney won second place with 30,021 votes for 25.19 percent. This year, Romney won first place with 30,015 votes for 24.6 percent.
But unlike in 2008, where Mike Huckabee was the clear first place winner with over 10,000 votes more than second place finisher Romney, this year Romney squeaked by Rick Santorum, the second place finisher, by eight votes.
Iowa's Republicans have not shown a clear favorite to rally behind come November and there doesn't seem to be an enthusiastic bunch of Republican voters set out to defeat President Obama. "Anyone but ______" candidates are hardly inspiring to many voters.
For purposes of comparison, the turnout for the 2012 Republican caucuses was higher than it was in 2008 by 3,067 Iowans. 119,188 Iowans voted in 2008 Republican caucuses compared to 122,255 Iowans voting this year. In January 2008, there were 607,927 registered (active/inactive) Republicans in Iowa. This year, there are 643,950 registered (active/inactive) Republicans there.
While Romney may be celebrating his "victory" in Iowa, he's shown how little appeal he has beyond his 25 percent threshold. Republican voters are skeptical of Romney and after the previous flavors of the month — Bachmann, Perry, Cain, and Gingrich — left a bitter taste, the only candidate the not-Romney crowd was left with Santorum. The Atlantic reports:
Even though Romney officially won, he lost, according to the conventional wisdom. He got cocky earlier this week, saying he was going to win. But Politico's Jonathan Martin says, "This was not the nite Mitt wanted." His semi-victory speech was awkward... Slate's John Dickerson says Santorum's tie is a win, too: "Santorum is now the only Flavor of the Week candidate to actually win anything, which makes him a genuine threat to Romney, at least for the moment."
Indeed, Santorum's Iowa showing helped him with New Hampshire Republican voters according to a CNN poll conducted Tuesday night, TPM reports. "The network found that the number of New Hampshire Republican voters who said they’d support Santorum went from 5 percent in late December to 10 percent last night."
After his fifth place finish in Iowa, Gingrich praised Santorum and maligned Romney. Republican skepticism of Romney continues and his inability to win support beyond his baseline is proving to be his vulnerability. Iowans have exposed this and, according to the Washington Post, Romney's opponents smell his weakness.
But it appears that for the first time in this campaign, Romney is about to come under intense attack by his opponents, which could further roil — and prolong — the race.
Spurned Newt Gingrich has issues to settle with Romney. On Tuesday, he called Romney a "liar" and asked "Do we want a Massachusetts moderate who in fact would be pretty good at managing the decay and has given no evidence in his years in Massachusetts of any ability to change the culture or change the political structure?" His campaign is running ads depicting Romney as the "Timid Massachusetts Moderate".
The two things Romney has going for him are 1) he's the Republican establishment's favorite and 2) money. According to Todd Starnes of a Fox "News", Romney outspent $113 per vote versus Santorum $1.65 per vote in Iowa. But really, Romney may have spent even more. The Des Moines Register reports that David Kochel, Romney’s Iowa strategist, said Romney spent $10 million on Iowa.
The investment of $10 million, more than 70 candidate days and thousands of voter contacts four years ago paid off because a significant number of his 2008 supporters stuck with him.
$10 million to have six fewer Iowans vote for him in 2012. Money can't buy Mitt love.