Nate Silver is wondering whether or not the elites wiring in Romney's Repug nomination win is coming undone by Gingrich as a result of his South Carolina win last night.
But Sliver's question is based on the assumption that there's actually a contest that will decide control of policy in the United States for the next four years.
That's not quite the right question to ask.
My position here is that should Romney get the nomination, fiscal policy (including the AHCA) will likely remain almost completely intact from the Obama years, despite Romney's rhetoric in speeches to the contrary. I say this because, with the exception of issues like abortion and control of the Supreme Court (which are serious concerns) Romney's behavior, based on his behavior in MA, would not be too different I suspect from Obama's.
And remember that Barney Frank quote about if Gingrich got the nomination? I forgot it myself, but to wit, Gingrich's nomination might likely guarantee an Obama win. But want some better correlation/prediction of this? Well,this should suffice:
Mr. Romney’s foam-rubber ideology was not built for an electorate this rigid. Mr. Santorum’s profound social conservatism might normally have played well, particularly because two-thirds of primary voters said they were evangelical or born-again Christians, but he appealed only to Republican minds, not hearts.
It was Mr. Gingrich who pulled the race into the gutter, where he found considerable support. He repeatedly called Mr. Obama “the greatest food-stamp president in American history,” and lectured a black questioner at Monday’s debate about the amount of federal handouts to blacks, suggesting their work ethic was questionable.
On Thursday, in the derisive tones of a radio talk-show host, he said Mr. Obama’s cabinet looked like Mickey Mouse and Goofy. At that night’s debate, he lashed into the moderator for asking a perfectly reasonable question about his ex-wife’s allegation that he wanted an open marriage, saying it was typical of an “elite media” that was trying to protect the president by attacking Republicans.
That was just what South Carolina voters wanted to hear, the signal that he would not only challenge Mr. Obama but work to bloody him, to destroy his dignity. As one voter told a reporter, “I think we’ve reached a point where we need someone who’s mean.”
(Emphasis mine.)
Now that right there is a preview of what's going to happen: Gingrich will be mean. This works quite OK for the Repugs in the isolated-and-demographically-threatened-by-death world of talk radio, but it won't work in real life. The precedent for this was set about 2 decades ago by Gingrich's booster, the Porcine One, Rush Limbaugh himself:
The fact is, if Gingrich continues with his bloated blustering bellicosity, all Obama has to do is a) be responsive, and b) appear reasonable in decisively dismissing Gingrich's attacks.
The "audience" of voters today still doesn't like Limbaugh tactics, and that's why, despite the "millions and millions" of people who fall for his drivel, they're a small minority in today's America.
I mean...can't you but see the commercials in the red states asking to electorate if you want somebody elected president who wants you to be so poor that your kid has to work as a janitor instead of spending that time getting an education?
Gingrich wins the Repub nod? Good.