Let's assume that, somehow, the coming Republican establishment onslaught against Newt Gingrich is survivable (I don't think it will be), and Newt becomes the nominee.
What would this mean for Obama's general election strategy?
Granted, Newt Gingrich is his own worst enemy. Newt's history is that the longer and brighter the spotlight shines upon him, the less the general public likes him. The great thing about Newt is that his unlikeability is almost universal. His own party ran him out of the House. No one likes a pompous, arrogant, condescending know-it-all, and the idea that Newt would somehow be able to mask his real personality over a long general election campaign is a virtual impossibility.
That said, Newt is smart enough to have tapped into the anger and angst that many Americans are feeling about economic matters. For those middle and lower income voters on the right who have bought into the manufactured (Koch brothers, et. al.) Tea Party belief that government policies, minorities and unions are at fault for their own economic distress, Newt has cast himself as the Washington outsider (cough, cough) riding into town to save the day.
This means that Newt, despite all the GOP mucky-mucks' protestations to the contrary, is likely to continue painting Romney as an out-of-touch plutocrat. Newt has gone right wing populist, reflecting the mood and the time.
So what would that mean for Obama in the general election?
One train of thought, illustrated by Fred Bauer, suggests that Obama and company need to do no more than let Newt be Newt, should he be the nominee:
Despite his (Gingrich's) long history as a Washington insider and many positions on many issues, he made himself the avatar of "conservative" frustration, victimization, and irritation. In a Republican primary in South Carolina, that's a good tactic.
If, however, a general election between Gingrich and Obama becomes a referendum on Gingrich, the former Speaker probably loses. Obama's mixed record is a hard thing to run on; surely, the White House would much rather run against Newt Gingrich as a cultural and political figure. Gingrich has proven all too glad to make himself the center of a political race, and the Obama administration will likely oblige him.
To an extent, that is true. Newt really is his own worst enemy. He would likely derail his own candidacy in a long campaign. Following that belief to its logical extreme would permit the Obama campaign to maintain its "moderate" position while kowtowing to the Beltway "wisdom" that elections are won among so-called swing voters.
But in a year of middle class anger at the economic circumstances of the country, relying on Gingrich to shoot himself in the foot (continually), may be an awfully big risk, particularly when Gingrich is tapping class resentments.
Obama should leave nothing to chance. What the president and his campaign team should do if Newt grabs the nomination is tack to a true populist position, defending lower and middle income Americans from the onslaught of the metastasized capitalism that has crushed the middle class and made permanent a pervasive underclass. (Yes, the very message of OWS.)
Now, we can debate in another diary whether Obama and the Democrats would really mean what they say should they choose this path (and Obama has already given hints of moving in this direction), but leaving a populist flank open to Newt Gingrich -- even a famously self-destructive Newt Gingrich -- would be a mistake in my opinion. That's the only path that would get him through to the White House, as unlikely as it is.
Ironically, it could be a Newt Gingrich nomination that forces Obama to move further left, a development that would please many in the OWS movement and many liberals and progressives who have long been pressuring the administration to undertake such a shift, albeit, with a great deal frustration.
I don't think Gingrich has a chance in hell at winning the nomination. The GOP establishment is just not going to allow it. But I certainly hope he somehow manages to squeeze through.
Such an occurrence may force the Democratic Party to realign itself with the working class values that long formed the foundation of the party's platform, pre-Bill Clinton.