Given the trajectory of the past week, it was not a particularly bold prediction for me to make when I wrote the following in last night's edition of the Wrap:
I, for one, would be absolutely shocked if today isn't the last day (for a while, at least) that Mitt Romney leads the national Gallup tracking polls. Newt has the momentum.
That came to pass today, as did other evidence that the Republican primary battle is more than taking a toll on the one-time undisputed frontrunner in the GOP field.
First, the numbers, which includes some contradictory data out of Florida which suggests that all may not be lost for Mr. Romney:
NATIONAL (Gallup Tracking): Gingrich 31, Romney 27, Paul 12, Santorum 12
NATIONAL (Rasmussen): Gingrich 35, Romney 28, Santorum 16, Paul 10
FLORIDA (Cherry Communications for the FL Chamber of Commerce): Gingrich 33, Romney 33, Santorum 10, Paul 6
FLORIDA (We Ask America): Romney 34, Gingrich 32, Santorum 9, Paul 8
Meanwhile, Rasmussen's daily tracker of the national general election numbers shows little change from yesterday. On balance, that is pretty good news for the Democrats and the president.
NATIONAL (Rasmussen Tracking): Obama d. Romney (46-43); Obama d. Gingrich (49-40)
The most interesting stat, however, may come from a poll with no trial heat numbers. What that poll reported, and why it matters, after the jump.
A poll that really caught my attention on Tuesday (and one I expect to see more data from as the week rolls along) is the new poll courtesy of ABC/Washington Post.
Thus far, ABC/WaPo have only seen fit to release favorability numbers on the two Republican presidential frontrunners and Barack Obama. But in those numbers, there is a great deal of intrigue.
Favorable/Unfavorable ratings, ABC/Washington Post poll, 1/24/12 (11/27/11 ratings in parentheses for Gingrich and Romney; 12/11/11 ratings in parentheses for Obama)
President Barack Obama (D): 53/43 (48/49)
Mitt Romney (R): 31/49 (38/38)
Newt Gingrich (R): 29/51 (35/42)
To put it in "net" terms, Barack Obama's fav/unfav ratings have improved by a net of 11 points over the past six weeks or so, going from narrowly underwater (minus 1 percent) to modestly postive (plus 10 percent).
In the same time period, Newt Gingrich has seen his fav/unfav ratings get markedly worse, by a net of 15 percent over the last eight weeks. He was already net negative back in November, but now he is even more so.
But what is most notable is that Mitt Romney has very nearly caught up to Newt. He went from neutral in November to a position now where he is underwater by a troubling (for his campaign, at least) net negative of 18 percent.
I don't think anyone should think it an accident, either, that the president's numbers have markedly rebounded during a time period where 90 percent of the attention has been focused on the Republican presidential contest. There is something to be said for looking better than the alternative.
But Romney's swoon is interesting. This is not just, as some have stated, a Gingrich boomlet predicated on a reassessment of Newt by Republican stalwarts. Part of Gingrich's boom has been Mitt's bust, so to speak.
And the public reassessment of Mitt Romney has been across the board. As WaPo's write up of the poll noted, earlier this month Mitt Romney was at 61/18 with his own party. He now stands at 58/32. With Independent voters, meanwhile, the collapse has been even more stark: Mitt was at 41/34 with Indies earlier in January. Today, according to the ABC/WaPo poll, he is at 23/51.
This is why the Democrats and the White House are rooting for an elongated primary season, even if Romney eventually conquers Gingrich and seizes the nomination (which, for my money, is still more likely than not). Neither man is endearing himself to the general electorate as time wears on.
Of course, given the lingering public pessimism about the state of the nation (which, while showing some signs of an upswing, is still a very real phenomenon), it doesn't mean Obama fans should be booking travel to DC for next January just yet. But the primary season, and the impact it has had on the general electorate, has to make Democrats and fans of the president immeasurably more optimistic than they had been even one month ago.