Phil with his handlers at Gobbler's Knob in Punxsutawney PA. Source.
Punxsutawney Phil, America's favorite whistle pig, has for 122 years been ripped out of a stump in the ground at the crack of dawn by a group of fat old men and told to predict the weather with little more than his shadow. This is acknowledged by meteorologists as the most accurate method of prognostication we know -- in fact, it's how my weather forecasting final exam was administered. If the portly rodent sees his shadow, it means he looked at the calendar and saw that we'll have six more weeks of winter. If the furry killing machine doesn't see his shadow, it means that nature will prematurely equinox.
The tradition continued this morning, and in fluent English, the groundhog spake:
As I look at the crowd on Gobbler's Knob
Many shadows do I see
So six more weeks of winter it must be!
Phil was too busy running from an angry mob to be reached for comment.
The Punxsutawney Groundhog Club bills him as the "Prognosticator of Prognosticators," but even if it is the most accurate and scientifically sound method of weather forecasting we know, how accurate is it?
Well, it depends on who you ask.
My favorite group of meteorologists with no lives, the Capital Weather Gang at the Washington Post, researched how accurate Phil has been over the last twelve decades: nobody knows for sure. Phil's handlers say he's 100% accurate. Rick Santorum's pimps say Phil is generally right. StormFax.com (complete with creepy man-on-groundhog action at the top) says he's right 39% of the time.
Since the United States has a fixation on cute animals and an aversion to, you know, checking what the experts have to say, a litany of copycat Phils have popped up in the most godforsaken parts of the continent. Balzac Billy, Wiarton Willie, Staten Island Chuck, and a ton of other rodents (real or statues) with sexually suggestive names are trotted out on February 2nd to tell us whether or not it'll be an early spring or long winter. According to the Wikipedias (which is never wrong,), 23 furry freaks prognosticated this morning. 20 didn't see their shadow (early spring), and only 3, including Punxsutawney Phil, did (long winter).
However, according to the so-called "experts" at the socialist headquarters NOAA, you can expect a warmer-and-drier-than-average winter across much of the southeastern United States thanks to La Niña, with cold snaps interspersed throughout the rest of winter every other week or so.
Pffft. As if. I took the liberty of making my own forecast, which can be seen below. (Audio potentially NSFW if your boss is a jerk).
Stay cool. Or warm. Or not fucked. The choice is yours.