I like Quinnipiac; I always have. I am a self-admitted poll junkie in even-numbered years and I always look for the Q-numbers. For those that may not know: Quinnipiac Polling Institute is officially part of Quinnipiac University, a private college in Connecticut for both under and post-graduate study.
The polls started as part of a class project in the Marketing Department in 1988 and grew into a full-blown professional organization over the first 4-6 years. They are still staffed with working students from the University and focus primarily on New England races and issues as well as polling New England residents about larger questions of public policy. During presidential elections they expand their scope to include notable swing-states across the country.
Oh, and they are a favorite of our friend Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight.
Now that I've sufficiently buried the lede, lets get to the poll Quinnipiac released today.
To put it simply, VA still looks Blue in November:
Obama 47 v. Romney 43 (+4)
Obama 51 v. Gingrich 37 (+14)
Obama 49 v. Santorum 41 (+8)
Some additional notes and questions below the fold
First, as many of us know by now, Newt and Santorum failed to qualify for the VA ballot in the GOP Primary, which means that a) Romney is a guaranteed winner of the Dominion State's 49 delegates on Super Tuesday*, giving him at least one win against Newt's hopes for a surge and b) VA will be spared the carpet-bombing crossfire of negative ads from/at Mitt Romney so any theory that a contested primary stirs up voters enthusiasm to help in the general fails here.
Second, are any of us surprised that as the nation gets an up-close and personal look at the GOP Freak Show and their medieval attitude towards women that more voters of the feminine persuasion are coming home to Obama? December showed him losing women voters 41-43 and now show him at 52-40. Thats a +14 point swing in a matter of months.
Third, for those of us playing along with the down-ticket races, the Kaine-Allen race has been within the margin of error since polling began. We haven't seen a lead wider then 2% until now with Kaine showing a 44-40 lead.
Yet, we clearly still need to so do some work on the ground. December numbers put the President at a 42% approval rating and the question of "Do you think Barack Obama deserves to be reelected" went 41-53 AGAINST. Now in February were at 46% approval and the reelected question is at 46-48 ...still AGAINST.
* --VA's GOP primary is winner-take-all for any candidate that breaks the 50% mark, and proportional in the event no candidate does. Seeing as how Romney and Paul will be the only names on the ballot, it is expected that Romney will win a majority.