Guess that Nevada bounce for Mittens came crashing down to Earth, didn't it?!
It obviously won't be showing up in the data as of yet, but last night's clean sweep for former Senator Rick Santorum has the definite potential to make the Republican primary a great deal more interesting. After all, only Maine's caucuses lie between now and February 28th, when Arizona and Michigan head to the polls.
For now, we get some data, that looks pretty decent for Mitt Romney, all in all. Use this as "Point A", and let's look to see where these numbers are in about a week or so:
NATIONAL (Gallup Tracking): Romney 37, Gingrich 21, Santorum 17, Paul 12
NATIONAL (Ipsos/Reuters): Romney 29, Paul 21, Gingrich 19, Santorum 18
NATIONAL (Rasmussen): Romney 34, Gingrich 27, Santorum 18, Paul 11
NATIONAL (YouGov): Romney 32, Gingrich 23, Paul 16, Santorum 16
NORTH CAROLINA (PPP): Gingrich 30, Romney 30, Santorum 20, Paul 11
OKLAHOMA (American Research Group): Gingrich 34, Romney 31, Santorum 16, Paul 10
VIRGINIA (Quinnipiac): Romney 68, Paul 19 (Gingrich and Santorum not on ballot)
On the general election front, Barack Obama continues to show some legitimate improvement, in both national and state polling (though the House of Ras goes back on an island by claiming Newt is more electable than Romney).
One slight caveat: the Pennsylvania poll is a little dusty (conducted two weeks ago--I just happened to come across it today).
NATIONAL (Ipsos): Obama d. Romney (48-42); Obama d. Gingrich (50-38)
NATIONAL (Rasmussen): Obama d. Romney (47-43); Obama d. Gingrich (46-43)
NATIONAL (YouGov): Obama d. Romney (51-39); Obama d. Paul (51-39); Obama d. Santorum (52-37); Obama d. Gingrich (54-36)
CONNECTICUT (Yankee Institute--R): Obama d. Romney (50-37); Obama d. Gingrich (56-35)
PENNSYLVANIA (Franklin & Marshall): Obama d. Romney (41-30); Obama d. Santorum (43-30)
VIRGINIA (Quinnipiac): Obama d. Romney (47-43); Obama d. Paul (47-40); Obama d. Santorum (49-41); Obama d. Gingrich (51-37)
A few thoughts about what lies ahead, right after the jump.
With a lull in the primary season for the next three weeks, this is as good a time as any to take a serious look at what has changed in the general election picture over the past month or so. Hard as it might be to believe, we are only a little over five weeks removed from the Iowa caucuses. In those 36 days, however, there has been an undeniable shift in the fortunes of Barack Obama in his bid for re-election to the presidency.
Perhaps it can be attributed to increasing voter satisfaction owed to the sense that the economy is lurching in the right direction. Or perhaps it can be attributed to simply looking better in comparison to the quartet of potential GOP nominees, who have had a disproportionate share of the media focus over the past month. Whatever the reason, there is enough evidence now to conclude that the president's odds of re-election have changed markedly over the last month.
Take the three states that had general election polling on tonight's Wrap. In Connecticut, an October PPP poll had Obama and Romney locked in a tight race. Today, a poll for a right-leaning think tank has Obama now ahead by double digits. In Pennsylvania, the 11-point lead for Obama in the Franklin and Marshall poll from late January represented a near-doubling of Obama's lead since the late summer, when Obama had a 6-point lead. Finally, in Virginia, Quinnipiac had Mitt Romney leading in the state right before Christmas. Today, the Obama lead is four points, not far removed from his 2008 margin of victory over John McCain.
National polling has tracked similarly. There are many miles to go before the finishing kick for both candidates can be unleashed. But Barack Obama and his supporters have to be breathing a little easier than they were six months ago, when things looked considerably more bleak. The primary appears to be defining Mitt Romney, and not in a way that suits him well should he become the GOP nominee.