Want the scoop on hot races around the country? Get the digest emailed to you each weekday morning.
Sign up here.
8:59 AM PT: KY Redistricting: We've been burned so many times before by stories that a deal on congressional redistricting was about to go down in Kentucky, but this one looks legit: A new compromise map just passed a panel in the Republican-controlled Senate, with support from both parties. As Democrats, we're all conditioned to assume that any "compromise" our party's made with the other side must mean we've caved, but this time, I'm not so sure: Several GOP senators are quite pissed, with one calling the new plan "the Ben Chandler lifetime employment act." (Of course, Republicans are conditioned to think that getting anything less than 110% of what they want out of redistricting is "unfair," so this kind of whining is usually par for the course.)
Anyhow, the map has to clear the full Senate, but since it apparently has leadership's blessing (as well as crossover votes from Dems), you've gotta figure that's in the bag. It would then go on to the D-held House, and again, if this agreement is for real, you'd have to expect it'll pass there, too. But nothing's ever certain in redistricting, so we'll keep monitoring the situation closely.
9:11 AM PT: Official versions of the new map haven't been published on the web yet, but it looks like the Lexington Herald-Leader managed to snap a few cameraphone shots of the plan on display in the Senate. Pretty grainy, but for now, better than nothing if you want to see what Kentucky's proposed new congressional map looks like.
9:24 AM PT: MA-04: Oh man. You know the editors at the Boston Herald were pissed when they got back these poll results from their partners at UMass-Lowell. The Herald, sort of a Beantown version of the New York Post with a real hatred of the Kennedy clan, was nevertheless forced to give a favorable front page to Joseph P. Kennedy III because their new survey shows him absolutely crushing Republican Sean Bielat, 60-28. (For some reason the poll didn't test a head-to-head with the other main GOP candidate, Elizabeth Childs—though they did ask about her favorables—but I can't imagine it would have made much of a difference.) It's gonna be fun watching the Herald suffer like this.
10:05 AM PT: FL Redistricting: Even though Gov. Rick Scott hasn't even signed the new state's new maps into law yet, the Florida Democratic Party has already filed suit against them under the new Fair Districts amendments to the state's constitution, and other groups are promising to do the same. (The Miami Herald has copies of a couple complaints at the link, include the FDP's.) Without much in the way of legal precedent, it's almost impossible to predict how the courts will rule; I'd say anything from allowing the maps to stand to a radical re-draw is possible.
Meanwhile, there have been a whole number of moves brought about by the new congressional lines, which we'll summarize here:
• FL-03: Resolving one question, GOP Rep. Cliff Stearns, who currently represents the old 6th, announced he'd seek re-election in the new 3rd. (There had been some question about where Stearns would go, given how many options he had.) He won't have a free shot here, though, as state Sen. Steve Oelrich and Clay County Clerk of Court Jimmy Jett are already running here (and Oelrich's not hesitating to lay down some early fire in Stearns' direction).
• FL-06: There's a new Republican entrant in the 6th CD (which is now open because Reps. John Mica and Sandy Adams are fighting it out in the 7th): state Rep. Fred Costello. He joins former steakhouse CEO (and Senate race drop-out) Craig Miller, as well as former prosecutor and Iraq war vet Ron DeSantis in the primary.
• FL-14: Hillsborough County Commissioner Mark Sharpe's desire to take on Dem Rep. Kathy Castor never made a whole lot of sense to me: Castor's district was a deliberate Democratic vote sink that was never going to be made materially more competitive in redistricting, and lo and behold, it was not. (The old 11th was a 66% Obama seat; the new 14th is... 65% Obama.) So now Sharpe has finally acknowledged the obvious and is suspending his campaign, though he's holding out hope that the courts will revamp the lines sufficiently so that he'll have a reason to get back in.
• FL-22: Adam Hasner may not have the Republican primary to himself here, in the district Rep. Allen West abandoned for FL-18, one seat to the north. Broward County Commissioner Chip LaMarca (who is also a former Broward GOP chair) says he's thinking about entering the race. Now's your chance!
10:39 AM PT: FL Redistricting: We will, as promised, be bringing you a lot of Florida goodness today, but if you want to check out the election results according to the new CDs, click the link. (They're from an official source—Florida's "My District Builder" tool, which is linked here.)
10:44 AM PT: KY Redistricting: That was quick: The full Kentucky Senate just passed the new redistricting bill, 29-7. It will now go to the House, where passage is expected later today.
11:40 AM PT (David Jarman): FL Redistricting: Here's Part I of our rollout of the new Florida map: a district-by-district walk through the whole state. (Stay tuned for a condensed version later, in the form of a Florida cheat sheet, too.)
12:05 PM PT: FL Redistricting: In addition to David Jarman's must-read writeup of the new Florida congressional map, here's a handy spreadsheet showing you which old district, geographically speaking, can best be considered the predecessor of each new district, along with Obama-McCain numbers under the old and new lines. There are obviously some judgment calls here, since there's never a perfect correspondence, but this is probably the "best fit." It's also very helpful because the new map is completely renumbered.
12:13 PM PT: KY Redistricting: Like that, Kentucky's new congressional map has passed the House (by a 58-26 margin) and will go to Dem Gov. Steve Beshear for his signature. (Joe Sonka has a good writeup about the last-minute histrionics on the part of some dissident Republicans who flipped out about the bill.) We also now have a proper version of the map:
(click for larger)
12:53 PM PT: NC-Gov, NC-07: Scratch another name off the list: Dem Rep. Mike McIntyre says he won't run for governor and will continue with his plans to seek re-election.
1:10 PM PT: CA-02, NM-01: Two new full-fledged endorsements from EMILY's List: businesswoman Stacey Lawson in the safely Dem CA-02 and Bernalillo County Commissioner Michelle Lujan Grisham in the swingy NM-01. As I said when they added Lujan Grisham to their preliminary "On the List" tier in December, I'm worried that this will make it harder for progressives, many of whom are backing state Sen. Eric Griego, to unite and stop conservaDem Marty Chavez from walking away with the nomination.
1:18 PM PT: CO-St. House: So much for that: Republican state Rep. Laura Bradford, who threatened to bolt the GOP and throw control of the House up for grabs because she'd be targeted by what she alleged was a bogus ethics investigation, is staying put. Why? Her colleagues voted to drop the inquiry. Oh well.
1:34 PM PT: GA-03: Former Lamar County Commission chair Kent Kingsley, who is also a retired military officer, says he'll run in the GOP primary against Rep. Lynn Westmoreland.
1:36 PM PT: NE-Sen: Democrats have finally landed a candidate in the Nebraska Senate race: University of Nebraska Regent Chuck Hassebrook. One more potential entrant, state Sen. Steve Lathrop, will announce his plans on Monday.
1:43 PM PT: CA Redistricting: No surprise: The California GOP's federal lawsuit against the state's new congressional map, led by Rep. George Radanovich, just got bounced. A big reason why, ruled the court: because the California Supreme Court already smacked down the same suit. Republicans can appeal, but it would just be a further waste of money.
1:55 PM PT: NM Redistricting: On Friday, the New Mexico Supreme Court overturned a lower court's ruling that adopted a specific redistricting plan for the state House (known as "Executive Alternative Plan 3") and sent the case back to the district judge with orders to draw a new map. The high court felt that the map split too many communities, but interestingly—and this is something we haven't really seen happen anywhere else this cycle—they also felt the map exhibited unfair partisan bias, saying that the plan added too many Republican seats. A redrawn map should, presumably, hew more closely to the baseline numbers of the map from a decade ago, but we'll see what the trial court does on remand.
2:03 PM PT: Virginia: It looks like Virginia's primaries are definitely moving: The state House unanimously adopted a bill to change the primary date from June 12 to August 7, to give the state more time to deal with litigation over redistricting. Presumably the Senate will follow suit.
2:08 PM PT: OH-Sen: Last cycle, it was all you could do to avoid getting squished on the head by another Rasmussen poll every few hours. This time... almost bupkes. But a rare Rasmussen Reports non-presidential poll has indeed surfaced, of the Ohio Senate race. Of course, it shows much more exciting results for Republicans than any survey seen heretofore, with Dem Sen. Sherrod Brown leading GOP Treasurer Josh Mandel by a mere 44-40 margin. Of course, virtually every poll taken by Quinnipiac and PPP over the last year has given Brown double-digit leads, with the tightest being PPP's eight-point margin back in October. So who you gonna believe?
2:12 PM PT: NY-12: So New York City Councilman Erik Dilan, who is from Brooklyn, finally confirmed in his own words that he's thinking about taking on Rep. Nydia Velazquez in the Democratic primary. (A recent invitation for a Dilan fundraiser directed donors to give to a federal account.) But I remain pretty skeptical as to whether he'll ever pull the trigger.