Below is a country-by-country round-up of events in the MENA region
Bahrain
Bahrain has continued to repress protests in the capital Manama. Bahraini protesters requested international activists to help them commemorate the first anniversary of protests on February 14. Witness Bahrain reports that two American protesters were deported and several arrested. Robert Naiman of Just Foreign Policy reported in an earlier Daily Kos diary that he was one of many people prevented from entering Bahrain.
In better news from Bahrain, two prominent protesters, former MP Mattar Ebrahim was acquitted by a Bahrain court on charges of unlawful assembly. Also released was blogger Zainab Alkhawaja, better known as angry arabiya after she was arrested for taking part in the protests earlier this month. These are better strategic moves on the part of the Bahraini government but the protests show little sign of going away.
Syria
The rhetoric from Western countries still seems to support military intervention but China and Russia vetoed this in the Security Council and France's foreign minister Alain Juppe has recently mooted the idea of humanitarian corridors in Turkey possibly run by NATO. The proposal is not meeting with much support outside of the EU parliament and some Gulf Countries:
Not everyone seems to be sold on the idea, however. NATO would be the first choice for guarding duty, but its Secretary-General Anders Fogh Rasmussen stated the alliance has “ no intention whatsoever to intervene in Syria." He also reiterated that “a regional solution” should be found for the conflict.
This passes the ball to the Arab League, though Syria’s lack of trust in some League members like Qatar and Saudi Arabia could get in the way. Damascus suspects the two Sunni monarchies of fueling the unrest in Syria in a bid to oust the Shia Alawite minority from power, so Syrian acceptance of their troops on its soil is unlikely.
And Lebanon and Turkey, the two countries that could easily deliver aid into Syrian territory, aren’t in a hurry to do so. Turkish press recently reported that Ankara would prefer an aid corridor going through the Mediterranean Sea and supported by the British military base in Cyprus, rather than through Turkey’s southeastern territories.
There are also concerns on the part of Russia, China and other countries that the humanitarian corridors could be used to funnel weapons and fighters into Syria.
Fighting is continuing in Syria with reports that al-Qaeda has entered the fighting on the side of the opposition. Ayman al-Zawahiri has released a video supporting the opposition and calling for Jihad against Bashar al-Asad. The CIA reports that car bombs in Syria have been planted by al-Qaeda and the Iraqi branch appears to be sending fighters to Syria:
As the violence in Syria escalates, several analysts said, Al Qaeda is seeking to exploit the turmoil and reinvigorate its regional ambitions after being sidelined in the initial popular uprisings of the Arab Spring a year ago.
The precise role of the Iraqi branch of Al Qaeda in Syria is unclear. Some intelligence officials and diplomats in Washington, Baghdad and Beirut, Lebanon, said the Qaeda franchise was responsible for the deadly bombings in Aleppo last week and in Damascus, the capital, on Dec. 23 and Jan. 6, which killed scores of people. But they acknowledged that they did not have the forensic or electronic intercept evidence to prove it.
Other officials said Sunni fighters loosely affiliated with Al Qaeda but not directly controlled by the terrorist group may also have been involved, operating in common cause with but independently of pro-democracy forces seeking to topple the embattled government of President Bashar al-Assad.
The problem in Syria is complicated. It seems as though the society is deeply divided, with significant sections of the population still supportive of the regime and the military relatively intact. Most likely those supporting the regime don't do so out of love for it but rather fear of a sectarian split, fear of uncertainty about what comes next, or opposition to the more extremist parts of the opposition. The opposition itself has remained fragmented. While the west has given support to the Syrian National Council, there are many other opposition groups, some secular, some Islamic. Some of those opposition groups do not want western intervention, as some expressed to Chinese vice foreign minister Zhai Jun who visited Syria last week, who met with a range of figures in the regime and
opposition. This fragmentation on the part of the opposition, as well as the lack of majority support for regime change is responsible for the endurance of the regime in Syria. However, the deep divisions in Syria indicate that the protests won't end soon.
Western countries should also be careful how they tread in Syria. Allying with extremist elements like al-Qaeda and Salafists from all over the Middle East is something we want to think very carefully about because of the types of unintended consequences we have seen in other countries. (Not to mention the parlous state of public finances in the US and Europe in the wake of the financial crisis). Not only that but western leadership in the Middle East is dependent on the credibility of that leadership. The increasing opposition of China and Russia to western plans in the region as well as the non-cooperation of many Asian countries is a sign that western plans are going too far.
Iran
The lack of support for western plans in the Middle East is even more apparent in Iran. Western sanctions were not supposed to start until mid-year yet Iran has unilaterally decided to stop selling oil to European countries immediately. Countries like Italy, Spain Greece will suffer disproportionately, both from the loss of Iranian oil supply (which requires a time lag to line up new sources) and from the resulting increase in oil prices.
OIL prices have hit nine-month highs after Iran halted sales to France and Britain, and as China eased credit policy amid expectations of a bailout deal for Greece.
The Brent and New York contracts reached $US121.15 and $US105.44 a barrel in early trading on Monday - the highest levels since May 5, 2011.
In late London deals, Brent North Sea crude for delivery in April stood at $US120.14 a barrel, up 56 cents compared with Friday's closing level.
New York's main contract, West Texas Intermediate light sweet crude for March, jumped $US1.84 to $US105.08.
Saudi Arabia has ratcheted up production but markets are nervous about the lack of spare capacity in Saudi. Many Asian countries have announced their opposition to the sanctions and are continuing to buy oil from Iran, with expectations that they will get new contracts for more oil at discounted rates.
The Iranians are currently in talks with the IAEA in Tehran and sees itself as defending its borders and sovereignty, particularly in the light of a recent series of assassinations of its citizens involved in nuclear research. The head of Iran's Atomic Energy Organization, Fereydoon Abbasi Davani insists that Iran's nuclear program is for peaceful purposes and urges the west to ease the pressure on Iran. Also on Iran there appears to be a two-speed world with the west pursuing sanctions at great economic cost (and possible future military cost if something goes wrong in the Straits of Hormuz) with many eastern and southern countries resisting this approach and positioning to benefit economically from the west's strategic mistake. And the non-western world seems to have no problem with Iran's program right now since they are not violating the NPT. Repeatedly discredited IAEA reports (the November 2011 report targeted a scientist who was making nano-diamonds, not nuclear weapons) just serve to make the IAEA and the west seem stupid and desperate in the eyes of other countries. I would like it if we started to look less stupid.
Yemen
Violence has marred the run-up to elections Tuesday in Yemen to replace former President Saleh.
One soldier was killed and another injured when unidentified gunmen opened fire on an army patrol shortly after the blast, an official said. No one was hurt in the explosion but the official could not confirm whether the two incidents were related.
"The explosion caused a big hole in the building's wall and shattered the windows of nearby houses," the official told Reuters.
Three soldiers were wounded on Sunday in a clash with separatists near a polling booth in the southern Lahij province.
Vice-President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi is the only candidate in the elections [!] which tends to raise doubt about just how much change is going to happen as a result of the elections. Several groups have called for a boycott of elections but whatever happens, Yemen will remain in conflict, with food and water shortages and in desperate need of aid.
Tue Feb 21, 2012 at 8:17 PM PT: Updated to add that the sole candidate in Yemen's presidential election has won. It's a great day for democracy.