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Big night tonight -- while Arizona will be an easy victory for Mitt Romney, Michigan is neck-and-neck. If Romney wins Michigan handily, it'll mark the start of the end of this primary campaign. If he wins narrowly, he can claim a moral victory. But if he loses, the race will continue in chaos at least through Super Tuesday.
Results: CNN (AZ, MI) | Google (AZ, MI)
5:33 PM PT:
So Sheldon Adelson reinvested w/Newt Gingrich to hear stories about trees? #buyersremorse
— @RalstonFlash via TweetDeck
5:37 PM PT (David Nir): CNN seems to be running a bit ahead of the AP, putting Santorum up 1% with 6% reporting.
5:40 PM PT (David Nir): Compared to his 2008 performance in the counties which have reported so far, Romney is actually doing 16% better than he did back then. But I caution: These are almost all small counties, and the total vote reporting is small at this point.
5:43 PM PT: Now Ron Paul is yelling at us on the television. With any luck, the networks will cut away from him soon. But I'll note this -- that dial focus group in Ohio is at least paying attention to Paul, not flatlining like Gingrich.
5:45 PM PT (David Nir): There's very little reporting from this turf so far, but Romney is underperforming in the Grand Rapids area. Trailing by double digits in big counties (Kent, Ottawa) that he won last time. He's also underperforming in the middle-class Detroit burbs. Leading by single digits where he needs to lead by double digits. (But he's overperforming in Wayne.)
5:46 PM PT (David Nir): One other data point: Romney's actually leading in Kalamazoo (40-36), with 7% reporting, which is one of the few big counties that he lost to McCain in 2008 (31-37).
5:51 PM PT (David Nir): 27% of Romney's votes so far come from the 3 big counties of the Detroit area (Wayne, Oakland, Macomb). Only 17% of Santorum's votes come from them. Could have implications for delegate totals, which are awarded by congressional district.
5:51 PM PT: The final poll composite of Michigan:
Romney 37.3
Santorum 36.6
Paul 10.7
Gingirch 8.8
As of right now, Paul is right around that mark while Gingrich is 2 points back at 7%. Santorum and Romney appear to be splitting the undecided vote almost evenly. But of course, it's still very early.
5:52 PM PT (Jed Lewison): Mitt Romney can't do anything right:
Bartender at the hotel where Mitt Romney is staying outside Detroit: "John Kerry stayed here too, remember?"
— @kasie via Twitter for iPad
5:53 PM PT (David Nir): Recalibrating our spreadsheet a bit, Romney is still outperforming 2008, but by much less than we'd previously thought. He's doing 4% better than he did in areas reporting so far.
5:54 PM PT (Jed Lewison): I tuned into Fox briefly, and it was like watching a funeral service. O'Reilly and Krauthammer were as sad and somber as sad and somber can be.
5:55 PM PT (David Nir): We're about to hit the 10% mark reporting statewide, and this is when things start to get a bit more baked in. It's Santo 40.2, Rom 39.2, Paul 10.8, Ging 6.9%.
5:56 PM PT (Kaili Joy Gray): Liveblogging continues here.