Mitt Romney survived Michigan. Now he faces states like Washington, Ohio, and Georgia.
In one sentence, the Michigan Republican primary comes down to this: Mitt Romney won, albeit narrowly, and while that's very good news for him, it's only good because the alternative would have been so much worse.
Romney's victory was certainly not a show of strength—he neither destroyed Rick Santorum nor fueled enthusiasm for his own candidacy. Rather, it showed his campaign's ability to hang on for dear life. If he'd lost the popular vote, even by a slim margin, the media would have written his campaign's obituary. Avoiding that fate is the main reason for Romney to be pleased with the results. As far as delegate math, however, Michigan was a draw: Romney and Santorum are likely to split the state's delegates.
Romney spent yesterday freaking out that Rick Santorum's embrace of Operation Hilarity would cost him the election. But it turned out that Sheldon Adelson's Operation Sugar Daddy played a bigger role: Newt Gingrich's 6.5 percent share of the vote provided Romney the margin he needed to get over the top.
But while Romney certainly was glad to see Newt Gingrich on the ballot yesterday, he might not be so happy in March. Gingrich and Santorum will be waging a two-front war against Romney throughout the month. The upside for Romney is that it lets him take a divide-and-conquer approach, splitting the not-Romney vote between two rivals, allowing him to win with plurality support. But there's a risk: if Gingrich wins southern states like Georgia and Santorum wins industrial states like Ohio, Romney will be seen as vulnerable to not just one but two rivals.
Despite the risks that lay ahead of him, Mitt Romney's Michigan victory was still crucial, giving his campaign a chance to focus on Super Tuesday instead of rehashing his defeat. If he manages to win key states like Ohio and Georgia next week, the nomination battle will probably begin to wind down, and quickly. But if he doesn't, he'll find himself right back where he was on Monday.