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8:34 AM PT: ME-Sen, ME-02: Well, that was fast. The Bangor Daily News says that Dem Rep. Mike Michaud has already taken out papers from the Secretary of State to run for Maine's now-open Senate seat.
8:54 AM PT: Special Elections: Johnny Longtorso:
Michigan HD-29: Easy Dem hold; Tim Greimel defeated Republican Bob Gray by a 77-23 margin.
Michigan HD-51: Republicans had a fairly easy time here; Joseph Graves defeated Democrat Steven Losey by a 53-42 margin. Green Cary Neuville-Justice picked up 4% of the vote.
Makes you wonder if all that effort to recall Paul Scott in HD-51 last November was really worth it, since he was just replaced by another Republican.
8:59 AM PT: NY Redistricting: Daily Kos Electioneers, look alive! The magistrate judge drawing new congressional maps for New York is accepting public submissions! Click here for instructions and the upload form. It's not clear what the deadline is, but the court is moving fast, so if you want to make your voice heard, hop to it!
9:23 AM PT: Okay, so the deadline for public submissions of New York maps is this Friday, March 2.
9:35 AM PT: FL Redistricting: The Florida Supreme Court will hear oral arguments over the state's new legislative maps on Wednesday, per the new Fair Districts amendments, but there's already been some wrangling among the justices over how broad a review to conduct. The court's conservative justices almost want to wish away the new amendments, saying any inquiry into the plans' compliance with the law should be "extremely limited"—and they didn't even want to force lawmakers to cough up a list of their home addresses, to be able to judge whether incumbents were protected under the new lines. Fortunately, the conservatives were over-ruled on that issue, but on others, they've carried the day. Click the link for the full background—definitely an interesting read.
9:42 AM PT: NE-Sen: Mercifully, the Bob Kerrey tea-leaf watch can only last another day at most, so for what it's worth in the interim, you can know that Kerrey has now registered to vote in Nebraska, using his sister's Omaha address. Meanwhile, in keeping with his earlier comments, University of Nebraska Regent Chuck Hassebrook says he plans to stay in the Democratic primary regardless of what Kerrey decides.
9:52 AM PT: NY-Sen: My headline for this story: "Hedge Fund Manager Decides to Light Money on Fire." Joe Carvin, who is also the supervisor for the town of Rye (in Westchester) says he plans to join the GOP Senate field and will spend $1 mil of his own money on the race. Amazingly, that makes him the third Republican to run, along with attorney Wendy Long and Nassau County Comptroller George Maragos. Good luck to all of yous!
10:01 AM PT: ME-Sen, ME-01: Maine's other Democratic Rep., Chellie Pingree, is also considering a run, setting up a serious potential collision if both she and Michaud get in. That'd also leave both House seats open, which will of course set off a mad scramble on that front, too. The filing deadline is coming up very quickly—March 15—and Bob Tyrer, a longtime chief-of-staff to former Sen. Bill Cohen, explains why getting on the ballot can be a challenge:
Certainly the tight time frame before the filing deadline will be problematic especially given Maine’s somewhat rigorous requirement for 2,000 signatures (each validated by the town clerk of the signer’s town before they can be filed with the Secretary of State).
So time is clearly of the essence here.
10:21 AM PT: NJ-Sen: It's the second poll this week showing a big lead for Dem Sen. Bob Menendez over state Sen. Joe Kyrillos: Quinnipiac has Menendez up 49-34, which I believe is the first time they've tested the two men head-to-head. (A Rutgers-Eagleton survey the other day had Menendez on top 44-22.) Quinnipiac also notes that the incumbent's job approval rating is his best ever, 48-31.
10:50 AM PT: ME-Sen, ME-01, ME-02: It sure seems like everyone is expecting both Reps. Chellie Pingree and Mike Michaud to run for Senate—or at least, no one wants to get caught napping in the event that they do. Edward Murpy at the Portland Press Herald does a good job summarizing this fast-moving game of musical chairs. One Democratic Senate contender, state Sen. Cynthia Dill, is at least considering dropping down to the 1st CD race, where she's taken out papers. Former Secretary of State Markham Gartley (also a Dem) has done the same, though it's worth noting that SoS is not an elected position in Maine. And Republican state Senate Majority Leader John Courtney, who had been courted for a House run against Pingree but sounded extremely unlikely to pull the trigger, has also pulled papers for the 1st—clearly a much more appealing race with Pingree potentially headed for the exits.
Over in the 2nd, Republican state Sen. Debra Plowman has taken out papers, which suggests that perhaps she expects the chamber's president, fellow GOPer Kevin Raye to move up to the Senate contest—something he says he's considering. On the Democratic side, state House Minority Leader Emily Cain, who had at one point been talked about for a Senate bid, is now pulling papers for the House instead. (Not to be confused with the Emily Kane that British rocker Eddie Argos is "still in love with.")
11:04 AM PT: PA-01: Going up against the Bob Brady machine in Philadelphia always seemed like a fool's errand, so it was never quite clear what former judge Jimmie Moore was up to—except perhaps for the possibility that he was hoping to peel away African American voters in the Democratic primary in this heavily black district. But regardless of what his aims were, Moore's no more: He's pulled the plug on his bid. The fix appears to be in, though: Check out the weird "joint statement" he and Brady put out at the link, full of statements like: "Congressman Robert A. Brady praised Judge Moore for his noble and selfless decision to withdraw his candidacy." Who are they trying to fool?
11:06 AM PT: WI-Sen: Check out the awful makeup job on Republican ex-Gov. Tommy Thompson, who is out with his first ad of the Senate race. Tell me it doesn't look like he's wearing lipstick:
11:47 AM PT: NE-Sen: Democrats have landed their man: Bob Kerrey will run after all.
11:58 AM PT: ME-Sen: We have confirmation now that Chellie Pingree has pulled papers to prepare for a Senate bid—as has former Dem Gov. John Baldacci. Though Baldacci served two terms as governor, he was never very popular and only won his second election in 2006 with 38% of the vote.
12:13 PM PT (David Jarman): NH-Gov: Republican ex-Rep. and current state Sen. Jeb Bradley was on a lot of gubernatorial shortlists when four-term Dem New Hampshire Gov. John Lynch announced his retirement, but it's confirmed he won't run; he just offered his endorsement to Ovide Lamontagne, the '10 Senate primary loser who wasted no time after his loss in pivoting to a Gov race. Another pivot for Lamontagne is that, despite his having been the tea-flavored insurgent in the '10 Senate race, he now seems to have leveraged his way back into being the establishment candidate (with Kevin Smith now playing the insurgent role); with Bradley, John Stephen, and Sununu Jr. out, the only 'establishment' GOPer left who we haven't heard from is Manchester mayor Ted Gatsas.
12:23 PM PT (David Jarman): IL-16: The GOP primary between two members -- old Don Manzullo and young Adam Kinzinger -- gets hyped in the Beltway press as one of the nastiest House primaries of the cycle, and here's some local color from Illinois' Capitol Fax blog on how they're roughing each other up. (Not that it matters in terms of November; this is a GOP vote sink without a strong Dem candidate to pick up the mess.) Manzullo's also running a TV ad making the case that he's the conservative one of the two, though NWOTSOTB, nor does it say where the ad's running. (I can't imagine he can afford to run it in the Chicago market, so it might be Rockford-only, or a targeted cable buy.)
12:29 PM PT (David Jarman): UT-Gov: It's official; we've got a Democrat running for Governor in Utah. Obviously that's a heavy lift for any Dem, but we've got a guy with a strong resume in place: retired Major General Peter Cooke, the former head of the Salt Lake City-based 96th Readiness Command. (He'd expressed interest several months ago, but is kicking off his campaign Wednesday.) Given the state's lean, he starts as definite underdog, though he might have an opening if incumbent Republican Gov. Gary Herbert (a "moderate" by Utah's out-of-whack standards) gets Bennett-ized at the state nominating convention by his several more-conservative primary rivals.
12:37 PM PT (David Jarman): WI-Sen: Public Policy Polling just rolled out the Senate portion of its Wisconsin sample; we'll have a full post about it later today, but for now, suffice it to say that they see a closer race than that Marquette Law School poll from a few days ago; they see Dem Tammy Baldwin leading GOPer Tommy Thompson 46-45, with bigger leads against the more conservative Republicans in the field.
12:41 PM PT (David Jarman): CA-25: Rep. Buck McKeon already warded off the specter of a big primary challenge with fellow Republican member Elton Gallegly (who retired instead, thanks to redistricting), but he'll still face a fight in the GOP primary. His new opponent seems to have a Some Dude resume, but may be one cut above that thanks to what we'll call "inherited name rec" -- Catherine Wright has the same name as her mother, who represented much of this turf in the state Senate in the 1980s. (Though that begs the question: how many people in this fast-growing exurban district lived here 30 years ago, let alone remember their state legislator from then?)
1:00 PM PT (David Jarman): OH-09: The weirdest Super PAC ever, the Campaign for Primary Accountability, is riding to Dennis Kucinich's rescue with a new attack ad against his rival in the member-on-member Dem primary in the 9th, Marcy Kaptur (hitting her with the common cold of political scandals: late property tax payments). It's not for peanuts, either: a $116K district-wide buy. (The CPA actually puts some real money behind the inchoate bipartisan "throw all the bums out" mentality (usually the province of low-info voters, not guys with six figures to spend), spending in primary races of both parties where they deem one incumbent to have gotten too entrenched or unresponsive, without any clear ideological pattern to it.)
1:28 PM PT (David Jarman): ME-Sen: Everybody's talking about Maine today, and here are some more quotes of what the actual potential candidates from the non-Dem side of the aisle are saying (or having said about them):
• Ex-Gov. Angus King (I): "giving it serious consideration" (of note, as an independent, he has until June to collect the necessary signatures, so he can have a more relaxed ramp-up)
• '10 Gov independent candidate Eliot Cutler (I): "unlikely" (more interested in ME-Gov '14)
• State treasurer (and '10 Gov primary loser) Bruce Poliquin (R): "likely to very likely"
• '10 Gov primary loser (and former Susan Collins CoS) Steve Abbott (R): "maybe"
• Secretary of State Charlie Summers (R): among "names currently being circulated"
• Ex-Ambassador and '02 gubernatorial nominee Peter Cianchette (R): "Gov. LePage... would support... if he were to run"
• '10 Gov primary loser (and rich guy/co-owner of Boston Red Sox) Les Otten: "no indications... he's interested"
One other consideration that may lure more candidates into the race is that Gov. Paul LePage is considering pushing back the Mar. 15 filing deadline for the primaries. Given the manpower challenges involved in rounding up 2,000 signatures in two weeks, this would allow candidates who don't have the logistical apparatus immediately in place to gear up.
1:36 PM PT (David Jarman): CA-26: Republican Ventura Co. Commissioner Linda Parks will be doffing her GOP label and running as "no party preference" in the Top 2 primary in this district. That's not really a surprise, as she's staked out a moderate or at least unpredictable reputation on the county commission, and state Sen. Tony Strickland looms large as the top GOP option here. The question is whether this'll help her squeak into the #2 ticket out of the primary, a real possibility since there are a number of credible Democrats running here and dividing the Dem vote (though Assemblywoman Julia Brownley seems to have consolidated the establishment Dem backing).
1:46 PM PT (David Jarman): OH-09, WA-01: It just won't go away... Dennis Kucinich, or at least his spokesperson (when cornered by Politico), wouldn't entirely shut the door on beaming down to a different district in case he loses his primary election next Tuesday (a distinct likelihood, as he's up against fellow Dem Rep. Marcy Kaptur in a new district that contains more of her turf). Could he head back to Washington's open 1st district, where he was notoriously putting out feelers last year? Washington's filing deadline is May 18, so, yes, he'd have plenty of time to decide. (And, yes, we predicted something like this back in July.) In fact, over half (36) the states have filing deadlines that come after next Tuesday, so why limit himself to Washington? I hear Maine might be having a couple open seats this year, and they might be particularly receptive to his brand of wackiness. In fact, if he wanted to weigh his options until August 17, he could still run in Louisiana. (Geaux Kucinich!)
2:50 PM PT: MI-03 ($): Subscription-only tipsheet MIRS reports that former state Rep. Steve Pestka is considering a challenge to Republican freshman Justin Amash. Pestka has't held office for a decade (he made an unsuccessful bid for the state Senate in 2002), but he subsequently served as a local judge for a number of years. Pestka wouldn't be the only Democrat in the race—gay rights activist Trevor Thomas is already running—but Pestka's more conservative profile is almost sure to be a better fit for this seat in the general election. Don't be fooled by those Obama numbers: Though MI-03 was almost 50-50 in 2008, that represented an enormous swing from prior years, which Bush won by roughly 20% both times. (Those are pre-redistricting numbers, but the lines didn't change enormously.)
2:51 PM PT: ME-Sen, ME-01: One more name to account for: Dem state Rep. Jon Hinck, who had been running for Senate for quite a while, says he's considering dropping down to the 1st CD race—presumably if and only if Chellie Pingree jumps in.
3:08 PM PT: WI-Sen: In PPP's newest poll, Dem Rep. Tammy Baldwin leads all Republican contenders—including ex-Gov. Tommy Thompson. We'll bring you a full post shortly.
3:12 PM PT: NY Redistricting: Redistricting proposals ordered by the court can be found at the link. They're starting to trickle in and presumably should all be filed by midnight on Wednesday.