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9:44 AM PT: NJ-05: After many weeks of Dems playing "not it," we've finally got a few takers in the GOP-leaning 5th. (As you'll recall, this district, held by Rep. Scott Garrett, by far the most conservative member of the New Jersey delegation was deviously made slightly more Democratic, to create the appearance of a fair-fight district between Garrett and Dem Rep. Steve Rothman, when really it was designed to move Rothman into a Dem-vs-Dem primary against Bill Pascrell, which is exactly what happened.) At any rate, Jim Steve McQueeny, a TV journalist and PR executive who used to be Frank Lautenberg's chief of staff, is poised to announce this weekend. Two other Dems who've pulled papers and are collecting signatures are Passaic County Freeholder Terry Duffy and Teaneck deputy mayor Adam Gussen, though Duffy, who'd previously seemed like our best bet left, said he'll get out of the way if McQueeny runs -- which would suggest that McQueeny has some real chops. One other sorta-credible-sounding Dem, ex-Marine Jason Castle, is definitely getting in, though he doesn't seem to have any sort of political base in this machine-driven state.
10:11 AM PT: ME-Sen: The Dem side of the brand-new Maine Senate race already looks pretty set: Rep. Chellie Pingree vs. ex-Gov. John Baldacci. The Republican side, though, is a bunch of question marks, and they just got even more questionable, with a flurry of "no"s from four of their top prospects. The biggest name, ex-Sen. and ex-SecDef William Cohen, confirmed he won't run, though he was probably always a pipe dream to begin with for the GOP (hat tip to Red Racing Horses for getting the scoop). Neither will 2002 Gov. nominee and ex-Ambassador Peter Cianchette (who yesterday seemed the likeliest, and who would have had Paul LePage's backing had he run), nor will former Susan Collins CoS and 2010 Gov. primary loser Steve Abbott. And finally, it looks like state Sen. president Kevin Raye will keep his bid in ME-02 against Mike Michaud going, rather than heading for the Senate race.
The newest likeliest GOP name that seems to be bubbling up today is Bill Schneider (I assume people mean the current AG, and not the former CNN pundit, when they bring up the name). However, it also sounds like state Sen. majority whip Debra Plowman is interested in doing it, now that her previous plan of running in ME-02 is out (with Raye staying there). One other interesting tidbit from the Maine rumor mill: Scott D'Amboise, the teabagger who's the only active candidate yet, is having trouble meeting the signature requirement and may not be around either.
10:29 AM PT: Wisconsin: PPP is out with its usual grab bag of stat lege numbers, approvals, and sports miscellany, this time for the Badger State. Voters would prefer a return to a Dem-controlled state Senate by a 48-41 margin, which bodes well for the upcoming second wave of recalls. Herb Kohl leaves office very popular at 54/28, while Ron Johnson remains a cipher, 36/35.
10:39 AM PT: NE-Sen: Well, Bob Kerrey's getting quite the welcome to the Nebraska Senate race from the local Republicans, on just his third day in the race. They're already talking about challenging his residency. He's in the process of buying property in the state, but he initially listed his sister's residence when he changed his voter registration and then switched to a friend's guest house... but there's no requirement that Kerrey live in Nebraska for any specific period of time before filing, so the challenge doesn't seem likely to succeed. And AG Jon Bruning, the likeliest GOP nominee, is already out with an ad going after Kerrey, using the plainly obvious "New York liberal" line of attack. The ad buy is for $70K (which seems small, but goes a lot further in Nebraska than New York).
11:50 AM PT: ME-Sen: Politics1 is tweeting that we've got our first major Republican to pull papers for the Senate race: Richard Bennett, who was state Senate president long ago, lost the 1994 ME-02 race to John Baldacci, and who more recently has been an RNC committeeman. Also, as the musical chairs continue downballot, now the state Senate's current minority leader, Barry Hobbins, has pulled papers to run in ME-01, which will apparently be vacated by Chellie Pingree. The full tally of legit Dems with papers pulled in the 1st is now at six: in addition to Hobbins, there's state Sen. Cynthia Dill, state Rep. Jon Hinck (both of whom bailed on the Senate race), Wellington Lyons, David Costa, and former state Treasurer David Lemoine. (There's also mention in that link of one other potential GOP Senate candidate, though she's on the obscure, though probably rich, side: Georgette Mosbacher, the former wife of Bush 41's Commerce Sec., Bob Mosbacher.)
11:57 AM PT: NY-25: It's not every day when you see a local GOP county chair advise the local U.S. Rep. that maybe she should find a different district to run in, but that's what Onondoga Co. party chair Tom Dadey has suggested to Ann Marie Buerkle. Buerkle probably wasn't going to win even under the old lines (it's a Dem-leaning district, with ex-Rep. Dan Maffei, whom Buerkle barely defeated with 2010's wave in full effect, seeking a rematch), and the state legislature's plans released this week (which, as we pointed out yesterday, have no legal force, though the court may give them some deference) make her district even more Democratic. Dadey is suggesting she move over to the Dem Bill Owens's 23rd, where nobody would know her (maybe a good thing, considering how out of step she is with the district; she's by far the most conservative member of New York's delegation) but which is a few points less Democratic. For what it's worth, Buerkle is already haranguing the court that will be charged with the final redistricting decision, saying the legislature-proposed maps are politically motivated.
12:01 PM PT: ME-Sen: Make that two credible Republicans: now state Treasurer Bruce Poliquin has taken out papers to run for Senate. (H/t to jmartin4s, who's been staying on top of Maine developments all day in comments.)
12:07 PM PT: NJ-10: 77-year old Democratic Rep. Donald Payne, who's held this Newark-area seat for decades, is reportedly "gravely ill," with reports that he has cancer and that his condition has "greatly deteriorated" in the last few days. We wish him and his family the best. (Payne had been planning on running for re-election, though he faces a likely primary challenge from Newark city councilor Ron Rice.)
12:13 PM PT: RI-01: Cumberland mayor Dan McKee had been a rumored primary challenger to Democratic Rep. David Cicilline, who finds himself very vulnerable, at least on paper, both in a primary and the general despite the district's very blue hue. (That's thanks to stories of Cicilline's financial mismanagement as Providence mayor, which mostly emerged after the 2010 election.) McKee ruled out a bid on Friday, though, leaving conservaDem businessman Anthony Gemma the only major Dem who still seems to be gearing up for a bid against Cicilline.
12:17 PM PT: North Carolina: I seriously have no idea who most of these people are, but if you have the patience, PPP has GOP primary numbers for the many, many statewide offices that are up for grabs in November. (In case you're wondering about the higher-profile stuff, at the Prez level, it's Rick Santorum 31, Mitt Romney 25, and Newt Gingrich 23, while Pat McCrory is at 57% in the NC-Gov primary vs. a bunch of no-names, none of whom top 3%.)
12:22 PM PT: Campaign finance: Congressional primaries are happening in Alabama and Mississippi on March 13, which means last night was the deadline for filing of pre-primary reports with the FEC:
• AL-05 (R): Parker Griffith Can Lose! (...but he'll raise a good amount of scratch doing it!) Griffith outraised the man who defeated him two years ago, incumbent Mo Brooks, $175k to $128k between January 1 and February 22. Brooks has a solid CoH advantage though, $392k to $27k. Perhaps this is what Griffith gets for entering the race so late...
• AL-06 (R): Insider-trading posterboy Spencer Bachus is being challenged by state Sen. Scott Beason, who, like Griffith, also joined the party late. Perhaps unsurprisingly, Bachus has a massive fundraising advantage here, having raised $303k to Beason's $54k. Bachus' CoH advantage is even greater, $646k to $17k.
• MS-02 (D): Heather McTeer is challenging incumbent Bennie Thompson, but her FEC filings wouldn't have you know that -- she hasn't filed a pre-primary report yet. Thompson, beteween January 1 and February 22, raised $48k, but has a massive $1.6 million on hand. (jeffmd)
12:28 PM PT: PA-12: Not a surprise, since he's from Johnstown and has deep roots at that end of the district: Mark Critz got the unanimous endorsement of the Cambria Co. Dems over Jason Altmire in their member-on-member redistricting-forced primary. (Correspondingly, Altmire has been getting all the endorsements in the western half of the district, his old turf.)
12:32 PM PT: IA-02: Rep. David Loebsack may be getting a credible primary challenge this year. State Sen. Joe Seng says he's "considering" a bid. While Seng sounds like he'd carve out a niche to Loebsack's right (he says he's a moderate "upset at the lack of bipartisan action" and is anti-abortion), it looks like Seng's real base that he'd rely on would be regional, though: he's from Davenport, and the Quad Cities are a recent addition to the 2nd (formerly in Bruce Braley's 1st district), so Loebsack is new to them too.
12:38 PM PT: NY-26: Remember David Bellavia, the tea-partier and co-founder of astroturfers Vets for Freedom, who tried to get picked for the GOP nomination in the NY-26 special election... then considered an indie run after he wasn't picked, and finally threw his backing behind Crazy Jack Davis's indie run that helped get Dem Kathy Hochul elected in this light-red district? Well, maybe he's sensing that the tea party's moment has passed, and now he's decided to ingratiate himself with the GOP again, saying he's "strongly leaning" toward a run in the GOP primary. Local GOP officials sound a little skeptical, as the Orleans Co. chair says, a little understated, that Bellavia "burned some bridges" with the local party.
12:42 PM PT: MD-Init: Maryland, as you probably know, became the eighth state in the nation to legalize gay marriage, with Gov. Martin O'Malley signing the legislation on Thursday. Much like Washington -- which also enacted it through legislative action earlier this year -- it looks like there will also be a "people's veto" referendum putting the matter on the November ballot. (If there's probably a good time for it to be on the ballot, though, it's gotta be during a presidential election.) Opponents have begun a petition drive to get the referendum on the ballot.
12:49 PM PT: TX-23: Democratic State Rep. Pete Gallego staked out his ground in the 23rd, rolling out a list of 140 endorsements, including former San Antonio mayor Henry Cisneros and a variety of state legislators. That's important because he's our best shot to take out GOP freshman Rep. Quico Canseco in what's really the only swing district left in Texas after the last round of redistricting (and that he's not moving over to the safer TX-20, left vacant after Charlie Gonzalez... not that he'd given any indication he was interested in that). Although he still faces lawyer John Bustamante (son of long-ago ex-Rep. Albert Bustamante) in the primary, this show of force was mostly oriented toward one guy: Dem ex-Rep. Ciro Rodriguez, who lost the 23rd in 2010 and is looking for some place to run (though he could seek out the open 20th or even the Austin-dominated 35th, where Rep. Lloyd Doggett seems poised to run).
12:53 PM PT: Polltopia: You might see less polling of New Hampshire in this cycle, thanks to the chilling effect of a new enforcement action by the state's Attorney General, intended to limit the use of true "push polling" but throwing such a wide net that it could snare any poll that includes negative information about candidates. Republican pollster OnMessage has already settled with the state for alleged violations, and the American Association of Political Consultants is warning its other members about polling the Granite State.
12:57 PM PT: NY-10: Lots of people have tried to dislodge Brooklyn's immovable object -- long-time Rep. Ed Towns -- and failed. But state Assemblyman Hakeem Jeffries may have a better shot at winning the Dem primary than those who've come before him, as he's getting some key union backing, something which usually has gone to Towns before or else stayed on the sidelines. Friday he rolled out district-level backing from the Communication Workers of America; he's already scored UFCW and Machinists support as well.
1:31 PM PT: WA-06: The dust is starting to settle from Norm Dicks's surprising retirement announcement on Friday morning, and the Great Mentioner has finally kicked into full effect. The name seemingly at the top of everyone's mind is, as I predicted this morning on the front page, state Sen. Derek Kilmer, designated the frontrunner by both Roll Call and local wags Publicola. RC's Kyle Trygstad gets Kilmer on the record, saying he's "seriously considering." Other Democratic names culled from these articles include fellow state Sens. Jim Hargrove and Christine Rolfes, Kitsap Co. Commissioner Josh Brown, state Rep. Kevin Van De Wege, and Tacoma mayor Marilyn Strickland. Indicative of the relative strengths of the benches in this light-blue district: no new Republican names seem to have surfaced, leaving IT consultant Jesse Young as the only GOPer on the table.
1:51 PM PT: ME-Sen: And here's one more big-name Republican getting in the Senate field, now that the dam has broken. Secretary of State Charlie Summers has pulled papers to run as well. (It's worth noting that SoS, like Treasurer and AG, are all appointed, not statewide elected, positions in Maine.) There's also one other Democrat to add to the increasingly huge heap of contenders in ME-01, where Chellie Pingree is expected to vacate for a Senate run. Westbrook city councilor Brendan Rielly also says he'll run, assuming that Pingree follows through.
1:54 PM PT: MD-Gov: Never too early to get a jump on the 2014 Governor's race in Maryland, which will be open after Martin O'Malley's second term ends. This hasn't been an even remotely hospitable state for Republicans in recent years, but moderate (or at least non-labor-hostile) Harford Co. Exec David Craig has started to lay public groundwork for a run in two years.
1:56 PM PT: WATN?: A lot of people have been eager for Steve Novick to run for something again, and now it looks like he finally will: Portland city council. (Novick, if you've forgotten, was the 2008 Democratic Senate opponent to Jeff Merkley, in one of those rarest of beasts: a mostly-positive battle between two solid progressives and all-around good guys.)
1:59 PM PT: NM-Sen: I can't imagine this would actually turn into a campaign issue that would affect Heather Wilson's race for the Senate, but it is a definite 'oops' for her campaign. In an attempt to prove how easy it is to commit the nebulous Republican bugaboo of voter fraud, the husband of one of her campaign staffers may be in serious legal trouble (like felony-level trouble) for going ahead and registering the family's dog to vote. (Irony alert: recall that Wilson set off after Bush-era New Mexico US Attorney David Iglesias for being too lax on prosecuting alleged voter fraud cases.)
2:03 PM PT: UT-Sen: I'm not sure too many Senate candidates would be enthused to have Mitt Romney cut a radio spot on their behalf, but Utah's a special case, and Orrin Hatch is probably glad to have Romney cut a 60-second radio spot for him, rousting out Republicans for the state caucuses. (Delegates for the state convention will be picked at the caucuses, and thanks to Utah's weird nominating process, Hatch's fate could be determined there before even facing GOP primary voters.)
3:14 PM PT (James L): ME-Sen: The biggest outstanding question surrounding the race to replace Olympia Snowe is whether or not popular Independent Gov. Angus King will throw his hat in the ring. While he has until June to decide due to Maine's generous ballot access deadlines for independents, Sun Journal reporter Steve Mistler reports that King will make a decision on the race within the next 48 hours. At least we'll know sooner rather than later.
3:41 PM PT: IN-05: It's hard to imagine a primary in the 5th without Dan Burton (and without a bunch of other clowns in the car), but that's what we've got. But now the retiring Republican has given his blessing to one of his many would-be successors: Marion mayor Wayne Sebold. Ex-Rep. David McIntosh, ex-Marion Co. Coroner (and narrow '10 primary loser) John McGoff, and former prosecutor Susan Brooks are the main GOP opposition.