On Tuesday, disgruntled GOP voters in ten states get their chance to vote for a candidate that they probably do not favor. The states range from legitimate battleground states (Ohio) to potentially more competitive states (Tennessee, Georgia) to states that might choose Ron Paul.
It's definitely not a fun time to be a Republican voter (or a Democrat disguised as one) but it's certainly awesome for people who wish Jersey Shore was more real.
But all jokes aside, Tuesday could bring the de facto end of the race to the Republican nomination for President or could open another can of worms in what has been a slimy contest.
Let's take a look at recent polls and trendlines in all the states that are going to the polls on Tuesday.
Alaska
Key Endorsements:
Lisa Murkowski backed Mitt Romney
Sarah Palin half-heartedly backed Newt Gingrich while her husband, Todd is in his corner....and Newt's.
Polls & Visits:
Polling out of Alaska has been rather quiet given how it's not been highly contested. However, in lieu of polls, Alaska has seen visits by Ron Paul, Newt Gingrich with surrogates of Mitt Romney also making appearances.
Expectations:
Alaska's turnout has been notoriously low in its history but it has been more contested than years past. Given how Alaska has a caucus format, one could expect Ron Paul to make a serious challenge to win the state. However, Romney's organization could give him an edge here.
Prediction:
Mitt Romney beats Ron Paul by high single digits. Paulites cry foul. Gingrich and Santorum round out field.
Georgia
Key Endorsements:
Governor Nathan Deal endorsed Newt Gingrich
Former Governor/Senator Zell Miller endorsed Gingrich
Former Governor Sonny Perdue endorsed Gingrich
Polls & Visits:
Recent Georgia polls have former Georgia congressman, Newt Gingrich, pulling away from Mitt Romney & Rick Santorum. Gingrich has made many visits to the state he represented in Congress while Romney made a recent visit to the Peach State.
Expectations:
Looks like Newt Gingrich has surged to a pretty convincing lead in a state he represented for over 20 years as congressman. For a while it seemed that he lost his grip in the state but he might salvage another win in this year's contest. Romney visiting was very smart as a safe second-place visit would really make Rick Santorum finishing in third look bad. Ron Paul isn't even bothering to compete in the state.
Prediction:
Safe win for Gingrich who might have one half-ass challenge to Mitt left in him. Romney will best Santorum by five-plus percentage points and Ron Paul will look to crack 5%.
Idaho
Key Endorsements:
Governor Butch Otter endorsed Mitt Romney
Senator Jim Risch endorsed Romney
Polls & Visits:
Idaho hasn't had many polls conducted, like Alaska. However, Romney visited the state recently which actually seemed receptive towards him. Plus he didn't mess it up. Paul has also visited the state frequently.
Expectations:
Romney has key establishment support while Paul has vigorously toured the state as he tries to win a caucus. It's a two-horse race but with Idaho's 25% Mormon population, expect this to be a harder state for Paul to compete in. Santorum was in the state earlier in the month after his surge but seems to have dropped focus there.
Prediction:
Romney wins state by double digits with Paul second and Santorum a distant third.
Massachusetts
Key Endorsements:
Senator Scott Brown endorsed Mitt Romney
Polls & Visits:
Romney dominated a Suffolk poll with Santorum the only other candidate in double digits.
Expectations:
This is one of Romney's homestate and the one where he lost a Senate election in and then served as it's Governor. He dominated nearby New Hampshire and "won" Maine so you have to think New England is definite Romney territory. If Santorum can get above 15% he qualifies for some delegates. But overall, Romney will finally break 50% in a state.
Prediction:
Good news for John McCain as Romney wins.
North Dakota
Key Endorsements:
Former Governor and current Senator John Hoeven endorsed Mitt Romney
Polls & Visits:
Not many polls exist but Romney and Paul both have made visits to the state.
Expectations:
Just like Alaska & Idaho, ND has a caucus and thus Paul's best chance for victory. Expect the same results.
Ohio
Senator Rob Portman endorsed Mitt Romney
Polls:
No need to highlight the visits as a lot of polls coming out of Ohio show the race closing between Rick Santorum & Romney.
Expectations:
Ohio is THE race to watch on Tuesday. Santorum had an early lead in the state but Romney has dramatically chipped away and is at the worst, the co-frontrunner. He pulls this out, the race is over. If Santorum wins, Romney's momentum after Super Tuesday makes this race irrelevant anyway. However, Santorum NEEDS this and TN to have any reason to keep his campaign going another day.
Prediction:
I think Santorum wins Ohio by less than a percentage point. Now I am unsure if that's me wanting the race to continue or me being realistic. Gingrich will stay at around 15% and Paul might bust into the double digits. Regardless of outcome, Romney looks great no matter what.
Oklahoma
Key Endorsements:
Senator Jim Inhofe earlier endorsed Rick Perry but no endorsement of current candidates.
Polls & Visits:
Santorum has visited the state numerous times. A recent poll shows Santorum sitting pretty at the top.
Expectations:
Santorum will likely hold on to Oklahoma which might be a small consolation prize if he gets trounced in the other states. The battle for second will be between Gingrich & Romney.
Tennessee
Key Endorsements:
Governor Bill Haslam endorsed Romney
Senator Lamar Alexander endorsed Romney
Polls & Visits:
Santorum is leading in a brand-new poll out by PPP tonight and has a lead amongst early voters. Santorum has visited TN recently.
Expectations:
After Ohio, this is the other state that I'll be watching closely. Santorum had a bigger Tennessean lead before Michigan & Arizona voted and it has dwindled rapidly as Romney closes in and Gingrich claws his way up. This is probably the only three-way race on the circuit.
Predictions:
Santorum has the advantage to the lead amongst early voters which should help him ease his way into a win here. This part of the nation was Romney's weak point and the closer he gets to winning, the better. Gingrich has an outside shot at capturing the state but unlikely. Now if this state was hosting a primary on "Super Thursday", I'd be more inclined to give a Romney win.
Vermont
Predictions:
One of the bluer states in the country, Vermont doesn't have many key endorsers and not many polls. Romney should easily carry the state though as he did in NH, ME and likely MA. Who wants to guess who finishes 2nd, 3rd & 4th?
Virginia
Key Endorsements:
Governor Bob McDonnell endorses Romney
Congressman Eric Cantor endorses Romney
Expectations:
Two men are on the ballot: Mitt Romney & Ron Paul. So who's buying Paulmentum? Due to Gingrich & Santorum's lack of organization, a potentially close race will be a Mitt blowout and Paul scoring some delegates. However, if Romney doesn't trounce Paul; the media narrative could shift to Romney still not being the nominee.
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So as it stands, it will be a Mitt Romney Tuesday. Get the antacids ready as we see Romney's victory speech and Santorum/Gingrich attempting to twist Tuesday into a great day for them.
If Santorum somehow loses both OH and TN (not unlikely either), then I wouldn't be shocked to see him finally drop out of the race. Nonetheless, seeing one less of these guys, the better for all I'm concerned.