If Maine's marriage equality referendum were being voted on today, the ayes would carry the day, according to a new poll of voters in the state
conducted by Public Policy Polling. If passed, the measure on the
November ballot would reverse a 2009 statewide vote that rejected same-sex marriage by 53 percent to 47 percent:
A majority of Maine voters say same-sex marriage should be legal, by a 54-41 margin. A plurality of voters (47-32) favor a law that would allow “marriage licenses for same-sex couples that protects religious freedom by ensuring that no religion or clergy be required to perform such a marriage in violation of their religious beliefs.
There's some indication that the exact ballot language is confusing people a little at this point. Only 67% of those who support gay marriage in general say they'll vote yes while 12% say they'll not and 21% are not sure. At the same time just 60% of those who oppose gay marriage generally say they'll vote against the proposed referendum, while 24% say they'll vote for it and 16% are not sure.
Backers of this year's referendum gathered 105,000 voter signatures to get the measure on the ballot, of which 85,000 were verified. It only needed to 57,000.
If the referendum passes, it would make Maine the first state in which voters have approved marriage equality. Voters have rejected such laws in 31 referendums on the issue, according to Freedom to Marry, a New York-based national advocacy organization.
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jpmassar has a discussion going on the subject here.