Did you know gas prices are too high, Afghanistan is a mess and the economic recovery is fragile? Americans do. And, specifically, lower-income Americans very much know about gas prices and the state of the economy.
They also know who is president and therefore (fairly or not) who is to blame. But even that isn't so simple. Despite the lousy poll numbers, Americans still expect Obama to be reelected (by a whopping 54-40). From ABC's Gary Langer (.pdf), writing up the most recent ABC/Washington Post poll:
More than half of Americans for the first time expect Barack Obama to be re-elected – but that won’t make it easy: Even as expectations have moved his way, rising gas prices have dented the president’s rating on handling the economy, his overall job approval has slipped back under 50 percent and he’s reverted to a dead heat in public preferences against Mitt Romney.
There's the money quote: It won't be easy.
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In the ABC/Washington Post poll:
Obama’s approval, meanwhile, has taken a hit especially among Americans who are less financially secure, and therefore more likely to be affected by higher gas prices: Compared with last month his job rating is down by 17 points among whites with incomes less than $50,000, and by a similar 15 points among non-college-educated whites. His rating drops to 37 percent among people who report financial hardship from gas prices, vs. 60 percent of those who don’t.
Even while most Americans criticize Obama’s handling of gas prices, the public divides on whether there’s anything he can actually do about it. That’s a shift from 2005-6, when six in 10 or more thought the Bush administration could do something to counter the problem.
Interestingly, while the poll shows Democrats are favored by women over Republicans by 12 points, and a 25 point lead over Republicans on who is more "in tune" to women's issues, that's their historic norm and doesn't reflect possible recent gains.
What does that tell us? Some points always worth keeping in mind:
- Polls are snapshots in time, a moment in history, and not a sweeping crystal ball. That's true whether the numbers are good or bad.
- The overall picture still favors Obama, even in this poll, but only by a little. Expect a close election, not a blowout. As bad as the Republicans are (and they are truly awful), jobs, gas prices, Iran and Afghanistan will still be issues in November.
- Issues like the Republican war on women's health and reproductive rights take time to percolate and spread. They can be very powerful, but don't have the instant impact on all voters that they do on activists ready to respond to things like the Susan G. Komen controversy or Rush Limbaugh's latest idiocy du jour. The ABC write-up looks, for example, at a more subtle measure:
While these are essentially unchanged since last measured in 2010, there’s one group worth noting: Women who are political independents. They’ve shifted from an 11-point margin in favor of the GOP as better representing their personal values in September 2010 to a narrow +5 margin for the Democratic Party now. They’ve also moved away from the GOP, albeit more slightly, on which party is more concerned with their needs, from +8 GOP to +2 Democrats. While other shifts counteracted these in overall results, the finding suggests that independent women will be a group to watch as the campaign progresses.
- Independents like the ones above are just that, and their views are likely transitory. Don't expect them to be fixed and immutable between now and November. They are basically not happy with anyone (hey, that's why they call themselves indies!), and while it's hard to win them over, it doesn't take much to lose them, particularly if you are an incumbent.
Addendum:
Obama's approval rating up to 50 percent: Reuters/Ipsos poll
Obama's Job Approval Rating Reaches 49% Over Weekend
Pew: Obama's approval at 50%, gains ground on Mitt Romney
After Romney's Southern loss, not much has changed in terms of the dynamics of the race. Romney isn't uniting the party, Obama's not dropping like a stone.