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Leading Off:

• Daily Kos Elections is pleased to announce our first set of Senate race ratings for the 2012 election cycle:

Every contest not listed here is considered "safe" for one party or the other. For our full writeup of every single race (including the "safe" ones), please click here. We'll be keeping this list updated regularly throughout the election cycle, and every time we issue a change, we'll keep you posted in the Daily Digest, so stay tuned!

P.S. Look for our gubernatorial race ratings later today at Daily Kos Elections.

Senate:

AZ-Sen, AZ-01, AZ-09: The Arizona AFL-CIO just handed out endorsements in three contested Democratic primaries. In the Senate race, they went with former Surgeon General Richard Carmona, in the 1st Congressional District, they're backing ex-Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick, and in the 9th, they're supporting ex-state Sen. Kyrsten Sinema.

MD-Sen: Dem Sen. Ben Cardin is out with his second ad of the primary, and, well, I just plain like it! The narrator talks about "oysternomics," explaining how Cardin's help in restoring oyster beds helped not only the oyster industry but the whole food chain (forgive me) that depends on the oyster trade, from the sea to the restaurant table. The spot actually features Cardin on an oyster boat sorting through the catch, and unlike, say, Harold Ford wearing a hunting cap, he doesn't look out of place. Just a joyful ad with a great spirit (and excellent production values). The feel-good TV spot of the year! Check it out at the link or below:

ME-Sen: When I first came across this quote yesterday, I mistakenly thought it was new, though it's actually from a couple of weeks ago. (Seacoast Online recycled it without giving a sense of when it was originally uttered.) But as Angus Kingisms go, this one was pretty entertaining and worth sharing:
However the election shakes out this fall, it's clear that the majority margin will be razor thin. Into this situation, any party candidate, no matter how reasonable, automatically comes with baggage. "We could send down a combination of Pericles and Thomas Jefferson, and if that person's reporting to (Senate Majority Leader) Harry Reid or (Senate Minority Leader) Mitch McConnell, he's going to be ineffective. Every vote is a test vote. Every vote is party loyalty. We're sunk if it keeps up this way," King said.

He believes, if he heads to Washington truly as an independent and beholden to no one, he may have a chance to break the logjam. Certainly, if five or six senators like him were elected to Washington — which could just happen in 2014 if politicians around the country see that King has been effective — it could end the damaging political impasse.

NJ-Sen, NJ-06: A good catch by sapelcovits in comments: Former Highlands mayor Anna Little, who for a long time appeared to be on the brink of running for Senate, was spurned at her recent party convention and now, according to PolitickerNJ, will go back to doing what she planned to do at the start of the cycling: seeking a rematch against Dem Rep. Frank Pallone. It's an almost certainly futile bid—if she couldn't win in 2010, how can she hope to prevail in 2012? But it's not like the Senate race was a much better option, seeing how the establishment has broadly rallied around state Sen. Joe Kyrillos. New Jersey Republicans have picked the less-electable candidate in statewide primaries before (see Brett Schundler, NJ-Gov, 2001), but I think Little would have had a real struggle. Now, instead, she has a real struggle.

TX-Sen: Former state Solicitor General Ted Cruz is out with his first ad of the campaign, a $220K buy that's appearing on Fox News. I have to say, I'm impressed: He seriously manages to tickle conservative erogenous zones by claiming he fought back against U.N. and World Court rulings which "overruled" the conviction of Jose Ernesto Medellin, "a Mexican national convicted of gang-raping and murdering two teenage girls in Houston" (as the Dallas Morning News summarizes). Obviously that whole "overruling" thing didn't go so well, seeing as the Supreme Court cleared the way for Medellin's execution—but that's precisely what Cruz is taking credit for, and that should really appeal to the black helicopter crowd. Cruz then somehow segues into the argument that his success in the Medellin case is why he'll save the nation from bankruptcy. (Seriously.) Watch for yourself here or below:

VA-Sen: Rasmussen: George Allen (R): 46 (46), Tim Kaine (D): 44 (46)

Gubernatorial:

VA-Gov: Republican Gov. Bob McDonnell is finally looking a bit more mortal, and it only took an ugly controversy over forcible transvaginal ultrasounds to make that happen. In Quinnipiac's newest poll, McDonnell's at an all-time job approval low, though his numbers are admittedly still pretty good at 53-32. That's down from 58-24 just one month ago, though, so it's a pretty abrupt drop.

House:

AZ-02: Here's another Democrat saying "no" to the AZ-02 race in the wake of Ron Barber's decision to seek a full term: Businesswoman Nan Stockholm Walden won't run, and it sounds like she's endorsing Barber, adding that she plans to "work hard" to get him elected.

AZ-06: Oh god, this cat fud is so tasty I can hardly stand it! The Club for Growth, furious about Eric Cantor's intervention in the IL-16 GOP primary on behalf of the ostensibly less-conservative Adam Kinzinger, has sent an open letter to House GOP leadership warning them not to get involved in the upcoming AZ-06 member-on-member primary between Ben Quayle and David Schweikert. Republican honchos have, for inscrutable reasons, been fluffing Quayle's candidacy, but the CfG wants them to stay neutral—and in fact, they're demanding that John Boehner match his $10,000 donation to Quayle with one to Schweikert. (That contribution was made before redistricting set the two men on a collision course.) If not, the Club says it "will consider it necessary to intervene on behalf of Rep. Schweikert." Oh please, oh please....

FL-02: After her recent court setback (in which Florida's law barring her from running as a Democrat in 2012 was upheld), former Republican state Sen. Nancy Argenziano sounded pretty glum about her congressional prospects, so it's no surprise that she's now announced she won't continue with her House bid. That's good news for Democrats, since a third-party effort by Argenziano would have undermined our attempts to take this seat back from freshman GOPer Steve Southerland. We haven't seen the last of Argenziano, though: She's going to run for the state House as an independent.

IL-10: If it's a diary by Daily Kos Electioneer Xenocrypt, you know it's going to be thorough. Xeno starts with an observation about the winner of Tuesday night's Democratic primary, Brad Schneider:

Schneider has a fairly impressive record of community involvement and philanthropy, but basically, he's a businessman who hasn't just never run for elected office—as far as I know, he's never worked in government, never worked as a staffer, never worked on a campaign, and has never been an ideological or party activist.
And then asks a question: "Do candidates with that 'profile' really have an impressive electoral track record?" Xeno takes a close look at every single member of the House who was first elected from 2000 onward (excluding those who'd run for office before) to figure out who, if anyone, has a similar background. I can't possibly summarize the findings, though, so to find out the potential answers, you'll have to click through.

IL-13: When I went to bed on Tuesday night (at 2am!), the IL-13 Democratic primary still had not been called. It wasn't been called by Wednesday morning, either, though 100% of votes have now been counted, and physician David Gill has declared victory, with the AP reporting he received 15,507 votes to 15,364 for prosecutor Matt Goetten—50.2% to 49.8%. But wow was Gill's statement churlish. He didn't offer a single polite word for Goetten and instead kept acting like he has a huge chip on his shoulder, declaring: "The Wall Street money and the DC politicians couldn't stop our citizen-powered campaign." (That sort of remark is very in keeping with the tenor of many of his press releases.)

Goetten isn't conceding, though, saying he wants the absentee ballots to be counted. But Gill's 143-vote margin will be hard to overcome. The winner faces GOP Rep. Tim Johnson in November.

IL-16: One post-mortem detail about the Kinzullo race is that the oddball Campaign for Primary Accountability—which likes to spend money to defeat incumbents of either party, for no reason other than the fact of their incumbency—forked out over $200K to help beat Don Manzullo. Given the complicated circumstances of this race, the CPA can't claim this scalp all for themselves (Adam Kinzinger clearly ran a hell of a race, as evidenced by his 12-point win), but this is now the second race (out of six so far) where they've been on the winning side. However, we'd be remiss if we didn't mention the $90K or so they flushed trying to beat Dem Rep. Jesse Jackson, Jr. in IL-02, though.

MD-06: With less than two weeks to go before the Democratic primary, physician Milad Pooran is pumping $200K of his own money into the race, claiming he has polling showing that 40% of voters are still undecided. Still, it will take a lot for him to move past the contest's two big names: state Sen. Rob Garagiola and financier John Delaney. Delaney's camp claims they've raised $739K so far this year, but I'm sure a lot of that came from Delaney's own fat wallet. Garagiola hasn't previewed his fundraising, but pre-primary reports are due at midnight Eastern on Thursday.

MI-06: The conservative American Action Network is coming in to rescue GOP Rep. Fred Upton, who faces a primary challenge from the right in the form of ex-state Rep. Jack Hoogendyk. According to Politico's Morning Score, AAN is spending in the "low six figures" to run a bunch of paid media on behalf of Upton, including this ad which tries to paint him as a "fiscal conservative." (A question for the audience: Do you think anyone ever actually picks up the phone to call Politician So-and-so about Issue Such-and-such when they're exhorted to by fakey "issue" ads?)

NC-08: Former congressional aide Richard Hudson is on the air with a small ($15K) buy backing a goofy spot in which he tries to compare his bulldog "Hoover" to Dem Rep. Larry Kissell. (I can't believe the things I have to write sometimes.) The ad doesn't even make sense on its own terms, because on the one hand, he says Hoover is a good watchdog, unlike Kissell. On the other, he says Hoover "consumes everything in sight," just like Congress. So is this a good dog or a bad dog? I'm not clear, but either way, I think this dog won't hunt.

While we're on the race, we should note that the Club for Growth just endorsed one of Hudson's rivals for the GOP nomination, former Iredell County Commissioner Scott Keadle. And finally, in Roll Call's extensive new backgrounder on key races in the South, they cite an unnamed Republican operative who frets that former Winston-Salem City Councilman Vernon Robinson, if he captures the nomination, could seriously screw things up for them, given his history of outrageous statements. I never thought I'd say this, but go Vernon!

NY-06: Though Assemblyman Rory Lancman may not be the official favorite of the Queens Democratic Party (that honor went to fellow Assemblymember Grace Meng), he just picked up the first big non-party endorsement of the race. The Retail, Wholesale and Department Store Union (aka the RWDSU), which has 40,000 members in NYC, just gave him their backing. And there may be more to come. Says the organization's president: "We wanted to weigh in early because we wanted to send a message to the rest of [the] labor-friendly coalition in New York City."

NY-13: Dem Rep. Charlie Rangel, in spite of his age, ethics woes, health issues, and the specter of a serious primary challenge, announced on Wednesday that he will indeed seek a 22nd term. Now the real question is whether that serious primary challenge will actually materialize, seeing as some of the biggest players apparently prefer to keep waiting until the seat is open. The main guy to keep an eye on is state Sen. Adriano Espaillat, who has started petitioning just to keep his options open but hasn't formally made up his mind yet.

NY-26: Former Buffalo Bills hall-of-fame running back Thurman Thomas quickly shot down reports on Wednesday which suggested he might want to run for Congress, saying he won't challenge Dem Rep. Brian Higgins. Wisely so: This would have been a suicide run for Thomas, who happens to be a big Carl Paladino supporter, seeing as the redrawn 26th is now a 63% Obama district.

NY-27: One more potential Republican candidate is saying he won't run against Dem Rep. Kathy Hochul: state Sen. Patrick Gallivan. While everyone is waiting on former Erie County Executive Chris Collins, the article also mentions a couple of other new GOP names: Erie County legislator John Mills and Assemblyman Stephen Hawley.

PA-17: Well, now I'm just not sure what to make of this story. On Wednesday, The Hotline's Scott Bland reported that "a source with" attorney Matt Cartwright's campaign says they've already raised a monster $600K for Cartwright's challenge to Rep. Tim Holden in the Democratic primary. But not long after, Cartwright's own campaign manager took issue with Bland's piece, saying they've never released any advance numbers and don't plan to. Did someone crack seriously out-of-turn here? Or is this all part of some weird game?

If these numbers are accurate, then this is a game-changing sum of money. If not, well, someone got played, and if I were the Cartwright campaign (or The Hotline), I'd be pretty pissed. Meanwhile, Holden's campaign says they've taken in $230K so far this quarter. But until we see official FEC fundraising reports (due April 12 on account of Pennsylvania's primary), we might not have a clear picture of what's going on here.

WA-01: If you're talking publicly like you're considering dropping out, that pretty much means you're dropping out. Witness this quote from Dem state Rep. Roger Goodman, in response to rumors that he was planning to bail: "It’s full steam ahead for now. We may come to a fork in the road, we’re crunching the numbers now. I don’t know." Goodman also described his own fundraising this quarter as "anemic."

WA-05: Democrats have lined up a candidate in the 5th (the Spokane-area, GOP-leaning district held by Cathy McMorris Rodgers): Rich Cowan, CEO of a film production company. He says he'll be "competitive" in fundraising, though I don't know if that means he has a lot of personal cash that he's willing to use, or just that he promises to work the phones extra-hard. Maybe the most important sentence of the article is the last one, though, which says that Spokane's ex-mayor, Mary Verner, is reportedly still interested in the race. Verner is probably the Dems' biggest local name, except maybe for state Senate Majority Leader Lisa Brown. (David Jarman)

Other Races:

Special Elections: Johnny Longtorso updates us on Tuesday night's interesting and unusual set of specials in New York:

New York SD-27: It hasn't been called yet, but Republican David Storobin leads Democrat Lew Fidler by 120 votes. If his lead holds, it would up the Republican ranks in the Senate to a 33-29 advantage.

New York AD-93: Shelley Mayer easily held onto this seat for the Democrats, defeating Republican Donnamarie Nolan by a 78-22 margin.

New York AD-100: Former Assemblyman Frank Skartados will be going back to Albany; he picked up this seat for the Democrats by a 61-39 margin, defeating Republican John Forman.

New York AD-103: This one also hasn't been called, but Democrat Didi Barrett is holding on to a 154-vote lead over Republican Richard Wagner. Her victory would be another pickup for the Democrats.

New York AD-145: Okay, this one requires some explanation. Michael Kearns, running on the Republican ticket, defeated Democrat Christopher Fahey by a 57-43 margin. However, Kearns is a Democrat, and has said he'll caucus with the Democrats. So it's not really a loss. New York is weird.

Regarding the Senate special, both candidates declared victory on Tuesday night, but the Daily News' Celeste Katz reports that absentee and affidavit (provisional) ballots won't be counted until March 27. So it'll be a while before we know the actual result here.

WI Recall: Republicans have announced a replacement candidate for ex-state Sen. Pam Galloway, who abruptly resigned last week but nevertheless has to "face" the recall election she was otherwise destined to face. They're tapping state Rep. Jerry Petrowski. He'll most likely square off against fellow state Rep. Donna Seidel in the recall.

Grab Bag:

Candidate Filings: We've seen filing deadlines pass in several states in recent days, so here are links to official filing lists:

Iowa (PDF) | Maine | Nevada (Clark County-only races) & Nevada (all others)  | New Mexico (federal) & New Mexico (state) | Utah
Demographics (PDF): If you're in the mood for a whole lot of charts and maps, the Census Bureau is out with an interesting new report on the remarkable growth in the Asian-American population over the 2000-10 decade (even greater, on a percentage change basis, than Hispanics). It's at its most interesting toward the end, when it starts looking at the tapestries of the many varied Asian-American ethnicities in different metro areas. (David Jarman)

NRCC: Yowza. The NRCC just held its annual dinner on Wednesday night, headlined by South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley—and the event brought in $12 million. That compares to $10 mil for the same dinner last year. We'll bring you a full roundup of the most recent month's fundraising reports for all six major federal campaign committees shortly.

Redistricting Roundup:

FL Redistricting: Votes on Florida's new proposed Senate map are scheduled for Wednesday and Thursday, but even some Republicans are sounding awfully rebellious toward their leadership, so I wouldn't rule out the possibility of a derailment. One related bit of craziness: Lawmakers on the redistricting panel used lottery machine cages to randomly select balls to determine which districts would get odd numbers and which would get even numbers. (One reason the Florida Supreme Court struck down the original map was because district numbers had been picked to maximize advantage for incumbents.)

NY Redistricting: You'll have to scroll all the way down to the very bottom, to the entry following Docket No. 252, for this bit of welcome news. Even though the legislature just passed (and the governor just signed) new legislative maps, the court which drew the state's new congressional map isn't closing up shop. Certain parties (led by the state Senate Democrats) have taken the position that the court should still draft legislative lines of its own, arguing that the legislature's own maps might fail to pass muster for two separate reasons. First, they need to go through the Dept. of Justice's preclearance process, and second, there's also a pending lawsuit (now in state court) over whether the state Senate map can constitutionally be expanded from 62 to 63 seats, as Republicans have now drawn it.

While I'd expect the lege's maps to get precleared, the 63 vs. 62 seat issue is a serious one, and I think the plaintiffs in that state court case have a very good argument as to why 62 is the right number. Unfortunately, I also figure that the legislature has a 62-seat version ready to go if the 63-district plan gets knocked down, so they could still short-circuit the federal court even if the state court nukes the new lege plans. Still, this is very good news and gives us a small ray of hope that we might see better maps. Now we just need the state court to strike down the Senate map....

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Thu Mar 22, 2012 at 05:00 AM PDT.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  i have to give credit to Florida on that one (5+ / 0-)

    Using a random number system like that is actually quite creative.

  •  If we hold all our likelys and leans, and pick up (0+ / 0-)

    all the tossups, we could stand to lose ND and NE.

    "Nothing in all the world is more dangerous than sincere ignorance and conscientious stupidity." --M. L. King "You can't fix stupid" --Ron White -6.00, -5.18

    by zenbassoon on Thu Mar 22, 2012 at 05:29:53 AM PDT

  •  A suggestion for ratings: (6+ / 0-)

    Have a row for the overall chamber math.

    Ok, so I read the polls.

    by andgarden on Thu Mar 22, 2012 at 05:43:28 AM PDT

  •  Tester and McCaskill are gone IMO (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    wwmiv, AZphilosopher

    I don't see either one surviving. Rehberg is pretty popular and in Mo Obama is going to drag Claire down, the state has gotten pretty red.
    The rest I think we can hold but control of the senate may actually come down to Maine and if King is the winner he can hold both parties hostage.
    Then again I suppose if Obama is winning big he may drag some people with him.

    •  My Hunch Is That They Both Lose But..... (0+ / 0-)

      ......the political climate in November is still a question mark, as is just how weak (or strong) the top of the GOP ticket will be.  Current indications is that the top of the GOP ticket will be a McCain level of weakness which would put tossup Senate races in uncharted territory.

    •  That's too pessimistic (8+ / 0-)

      Tester: Rehberg may have racked up big margins in previous races, but when's the last time he faced a credible opponent?  

      McCaskill: She's been an active presence in the state, and her opponents are underwhelming enough that the GOP is still fishing for candidates.

      Oh, and both are incumbents this time around, instead of trying to knock off the same.

      Both are in Lean R states, but that alone isn't enough to say that they're goners.

      NY-12 resident, lives across the street from NY-14

      by Bobby Big Wheel on Thu Mar 22, 2012 at 06:21:44 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  McCaskill (0+ / 0-)

        Her polling is abysmal. I'd sooner bet on holding ND than holding MO.

        Although I do agree with him about MT as well, I do agree with you that that race isn't necessarily gone yet. That's a race which will be down to the wire.

        22, Nice Calm Burkean Post-Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Childhood), TX-21 (School), TX-10 (Home); SSP: wmayes

        by wwmiv on Thu Mar 22, 2012 at 06:47:12 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  It is not abysmal. (4+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          dc1000, LNK, itskevin, askew

          Sh*t politicians say: “Well It’s not a stereotype at all. This is a — you know, through the creative — this is a young woman in China who is speaking English. That’s quite an achievement. " -Pete Hoekstra

          by KingofSpades on Thu Mar 22, 2012 at 06:48:47 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Both MT and MO are tossups. (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            itskevin

            Sh*t politicians say: “Well It’s not a stereotype at all. This is a — you know, through the creative — this is a young woman in China who is speaking English. That’s quite an achievement. " -Pete Hoekstra

            by KingofSpades on Thu Mar 22, 2012 at 06:50:53 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  It is too! (0+ / 0-)

            ...

            http://www.realclearpolitics.com/...

            She's rarely above 45% and at a tie with her opponents. If she were at 45% and leading an opponent which had 35% I'd say she basically had the race tied up already, but that isn't the case. I'm not one to defend Rasmussen (ever), but I think their polling is more believable in this race than PPPs. They have all-comers beating her nicely.

            22, Nice Calm Burkean Post-Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Childhood), TX-21 (School), TX-10 (Home); SSP: wmayes

            by wwmiv on Thu Mar 22, 2012 at 06:56:08 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Why is it more believeable? (4+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              sacman701, itskevin, askew, stevenaxelrod

              Rasmussen is wrong in having her behind that much.  Besides, if the polling is like this, why is the MO GOP scrambling to find someone better than Akin and Steelman?  There have been internal rumblings for months that their GOP field is too weak.

              Remember, Harry Reid's polling numbers were worse than this.

              If she were ahead 45-35, she would be favored, not be "tied up."

              Sh*t politicians say: “Well It’s not a stereotype at all. This is a — you know, through the creative — this is a young woman in China who is speaking English. That’s quite an achievement. " -Pete Hoekstra

              by KingofSpades on Thu Mar 22, 2012 at 06:59:23 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  . (0+ / 0-)

                I don't think the two things are mutually exclusive. The Missouri GOP would, as all parties would, prefer the best possible candidate. They don't have that. That does not, however, indicate that their current candidates are not ahead of McCaskill. Rasmussen, ofcourse, is painting a slightly rosy picture for the GOP, but I still think they're closer to reality on this one than PPP.

                Remember: Even if you average the two polls you come up with McCaskill behind her opponents.

                22, Nice Calm Burkean Post-Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Childhood), TX-21 (School), TX-10 (Home); SSP: wmayes

                by wwmiv on Thu Mar 22, 2012 at 07:07:28 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

              •  No (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                dc1000

                Harry Reid's polling was not worse than this. He was rarely beneath 45% while McCaskill is routinely beneath 45%.

                http://www.realclearpolitics.com/...

                22, Nice Calm Burkean Post-Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Childhood), TX-21 (School), TX-10 (Home); SSP: wmayes

                by wwmiv on Thu Mar 22, 2012 at 07:09:01 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  Just like 2006 (5+ / 0-)

                  Rasmussen had her below 45% in almost all of their Winter/Spring 2006 polls, and often behind Talent.

                  You're not going to see anyone polling above 50% in a MO Senator race unless they get caught drowning puppies (or conversely saving some drowning orphans).  It's a state that has a large chunk of people whose minds are made up every time.  

                  On the other hand, I doubt you'll ever see a poll with anyone below 40% either.  So you're stuck with both candidates likely polling at between 40-45%, which of course puts it in MoE territory.

                  Then of course you get the fun of Ras: In Jan 2006, it was Mccaskill by +3, Feb 2006 it was talent by +5, March 2006 it was McCaskill by 3, Apr 2006 McCaskill by +1, may 2006 Talent by +3.  And the only person to poll over 45% or get a 5-pt lead or better in those 5 polls was Talent.

                  http://en.wikipedia.org/...

                  "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

                  by rdw72777 on Thu Mar 22, 2012 at 08:24:35 AM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                •  Is 45% the new 50%? nt (0+ / 0-)

                  22, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

                  by sapelcovits on Thu Mar 22, 2012 at 08:33:30 AM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  It can be (0+ / 0-)

                    Especially in early polling in a state like MO.  This seat itself wasn't won with more than 50.5% of the vote in 2000 or 2006, in fact in 2000 and 2006 49% would have been enough for a win (In 2002 Talent beat Jean Carnahan with less than 50% too, but more than the 49% I used above).

                    Depending on the strength of a 3rd party candidate and the closeness of the race, the battle might not be to 50%+1.

                    "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

                    by rdw72777 on Thu Mar 22, 2012 at 08:48:34 AM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

            •  Missouri doesn't work like that (5+ / 0-)

              You'll rarely see any close race with an incumbent up double digits, so being tied at 45% doesn't mean much else than it's a close race. If it was Safe Republican, they're numbers would be better than just tying and no, I don't count Rasmussen's poll, they've been fudging numbers all over the place lately.

              25, Male, CA-24, DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

              by DrPhillips on Thu Mar 22, 2012 at 07:21:21 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  Really? (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                Chachy

                I take issue with two things here:

                1. The idea that every race in Missouri is a coin flip, so having her tied at 45% is decent.
                This isn't the case. Her 45% shows are at the top of her range. Usually she's at 42 or 43%. How often do incumbents who tie their opponents at 42 or 43% routinely in polls get reelected?
                2. The idea that Rasmussen should be discounted because they purposefully fuge the numbers.
                This is ridiculous. Rasmussen does have a large house effect (2-3%) that does lean towards the Republicans, but I sincerely doubt that they are purposefully and routinely changing their numbers so as to get the best result possible for the Republican candidates. It is time to stop impugning and ignoring them because their results aren't as good for our side as other polling outfits. We should, instead, adjust our mindset and see the results for what they really are - just slightly rosy for the other side, but not wholly inaccurate.

                22, Nice Calm Burkean Post-Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Childhood), TX-21 (School), TX-10 (Home); SSP: wmayes

                by wwmiv on Thu Mar 22, 2012 at 07:31:40 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  Yes, really (4+ / 0-)

                  I think McCaskill still has a shot at winning, one above Likely Republican, but that's just opinion, so I'll leave it that.

                  Rasmussen's numbers in many races are very odd. Obama up by a good margin in Nevada, but Berkley trailing by a few points. The disparity there was too big, something just seems very off.

                  25, Male, CA-24, DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

                  by DrPhillips on Thu Mar 22, 2012 at 07:40:38 AM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                •  We aren't "impugning and ignoring" (4+ / 0-)

                  Rasmussen because their results aren't good for us. We're "impugning and ignoring" them because they have ridiculous results that bounce around wildly and just generally don't make sense. Combine that with the fact that the pollster clearly has an agenda and it makes them untrustworthy.

                  Although they do have their good days, like how they accurately predicted Blanche Lincoln's 38-point loss and Daniel Inouye's 13-point win...ok nevermind they just suck.

                  22, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

                  by sapelcovits on Thu Mar 22, 2012 at 08:36:44 AM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                •  Stop being such a doomsayer. (0+ / 0-)

                  24, Solid Liberal Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Gregg for Governor! Donnelly for Senate! Mullen for Congress!

                  by HoosierD42 on Thu Mar 22, 2012 at 05:02:13 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

        •  MO (4+ / 0-)

          McCaskill's opponents (especially if Akin wins) are so weak that I think she can hang on by running a brutal negative campaign just like Reid did in 2010. MO is more red than NV in general, but it will not likely be a better environment for the GOP in 2012 than NV was in 2010.

          SSP poster. 42, CA-5, -0.25/-3.90

          by sacman701 on Thu Mar 22, 2012 at 08:46:23 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  I don't know (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        wwmiv, pademocrat

        Rasmussen has Claire down double digits so I figure she is 5 behind. Mo  is no longer a real tossup state. In Mt. both Rehberg and Tester are popular but when they see Obama at the top of the ticket the will vote for Rehberg. Tester was just lucky to win in 2006 because it was a great year for democrats and he beat a crooked candidate and just barely.
        Just hope Schweitzer runs in 2016 because he would win easily. Hopefully Baucus retires.

    •  Rehberg's favorables are middling (5+ / 0-)

      He's not really popular, because he's not really likable, he's competitive for almost entirely partisan reasons. His attempt to sue firefighters did not impress many.

      25, Male, CA-24, DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

      by DrPhillips on Thu Mar 22, 2012 at 07:24:25 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Jobless claims! (12+ / 0-)

    Good again, 348K initial, compared to last week's 353K revised.  Most likely will be at least 350K when revised next week, so still not yet really below the next psychological benchmark of 350K.  Bodes well for a good March jobs report in a couple weeks.

    44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

    by DCCyclone on Thu Mar 22, 2012 at 05:54:06 AM PDT

  •  2 things: (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike

    i'm sure you guys working behind the counter have already seen this but apparently there is a poll of the CT-Sen Primary by Quinipiac showing McMahon leading shays 51%-42%    http://www.quinnipiac.edu/...

    2nd.  When is DK or DKE going to come out with a new elections map?  I miss having a congressional and senate map with history readily available.  The one over at CQ is impossible to find (not the senate one but the house map) But DK's map was always easy and convinient.  

  •  CT Sen (6+ / 0-)

    Things shaping up nicely. McMahon leads Shays 51-42, while Murphy leads she who must not be named 37-25. A Murphy-McMahon matchup is what we want here obviously. You can see this by the GE numbers included in the poll. And by Bysiewicz horrendous record of course.

    http://www.quinnipiac.edu/...

  •  Lugar-Sen (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Alice Olson

    He's toast, but that doesn't mean that I think we're going to get the seat if he's not the nominee.

    http://www.politico.com/...

    22, Nice Calm Burkean Post-Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Childhood), TX-21 (School), TX-10 (Home); SSP: wmayes

    by wwmiv on Thu Mar 22, 2012 at 06:42:59 AM PDT

  •  Personally I'd put NM in the "lean D" column (5+ / 0-)

    Bingaman (D)  retires with a lot of good will, Martin Heinrich (D) has done well in the House, and Heather Wilson (R) has been out for a while.  

    Even with very modest Obama coat-tails, I think Heinrich will take it.  

    Only Romney gives Obama a much closer run than it now appears he can, will Wilson be a serious threat.

    "The extinction of the human race will come from its inability to EMOTIONALLY comprehend the exponential function." -- Edward Teller

    by lgmcp on Thu Mar 22, 2012 at 06:43:37 AM PDT

    •  Coattails (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      lgmcp

      Read Campbell and Sumners' "Presidential Coattails in Senate Elections" American Political Science Review 84:2 (1990) 513-524.

      They found that in only 12 cases over the 72-88 elections did coattails change the result. They did find a moderate (and, ofcourse, significant) coattail effect.

      I.E. we should NOT be hedging our bets on a good coattail effect to bring our candidates over the edge, because in all likelihood that won't be the case.

      22, Nice Calm Burkean Post-Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Childhood), TX-21 (School), TX-10 (Home); SSP: wmayes

      by wwmiv on Thu Mar 22, 2012 at 07:01:24 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Not sure I buy that (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        askew, stevenaxelrod, lgmcp

        I can see that being the case in an average-turnout presidential election where the contest is won by grinding out the most indie votes without significantly growing the voter base.

        Obama, however, is likely to energize voters who don't typically show up at the polls, which could scramble the downticket math quite a bit. My guess would be that those voters are likely to go party-line, or support whoever Obama is supporting. (Some, of course, may not vote at all in other races.)

  •  And MD is not in your table, why? (0+ / 0-)

    You got Ben C. below it.

    The Muslim said "I wished I had met Christ before I met the Christians" - Rev. Marvin Winins

    by captainlaser on Thu Mar 22, 2012 at 06:54:50 AM PDT

    •  Safe (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      pademocrat, sapelcovits, itskevin

      Because that race is safe.

      22, Nice Calm Burkean Post-Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Childhood), TX-21 (School), TX-10 (Home); SSP: wmayes

      by wwmiv on Thu Mar 22, 2012 at 07:03:45 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Not of the CDRSCCs have anything to say about it (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        sapelcovits

        26, originally OK-1, currently NY-8. Former swingnut.

        by okiedem on Thu Mar 22, 2012 at 07:17:06 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Seriously though I think Maryland might be the (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Alice Olson, pademocrat, bumiputera

        only state in the union that is literally unwinnable for Republicans under any circumstances with its demographic changes that have taken place over the past several years.

        Although other states like Massachusetts, Hawaii, and Rhode Island might have slightly higher average Democratic performance, those states are reliant on voters that do at least occasionally vote Republican and therefore can send the state into the Republican column in a perfect storm scenario.

        In Maryland however, I would bet Dems could get to 50%+1 strictly with straight-ticket voters that vote for us 100% of the time (or at least 100% of the time when the Dem candidate isn't under indictment).  

        26, originally OK-1, currently NY-8. Former swingnut.

        by okiedem on Thu Mar 22, 2012 at 07:35:56 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Vermont (0+ / 0-)

          I think hell freezes over before a Republican wins a Senate seat here. The time that moderate Republicans could win here is long gone. Even Jeffords jumped ship.

          Obama-Biden in 2012!

          by Frederik on Thu Mar 22, 2012 at 08:14:32 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  That's a good point I forgot about VT (0+ / 0-)

            26, originally OK-1, currently NY-8. Former swingnut.

            by okiedem on Thu Mar 22, 2012 at 08:19:50 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  I assume you were talking about (0+ / 0-)

              gov races though (since RI hasn't voted R for any other statewide position since 2000, and that's not going to be changing as long as the R party stays crazy). In which case Vermont is in the same category.

              22, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

              by sapelcovits on Thu Mar 22, 2012 at 08:39:38 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  Certainly it's debateable, but RI is very similar (3+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                bumiputera, jncca, stevenaxelrod

                to Mass demographically. I think that Scott Brown's victory proved that it's possible for fauxderate mainstream Republican with working class appeal to beat a hapless Democrat in a strong Republican environment. Although it hasn't happened in Rhode Island I would guess that it could happen there as well given the demographic similarities between Mass and RI.

                Generally though, I was referring to federal office. Almost any state is capable of electing a governor of the opposing party in the right circumstances but some states will never vote for the non-favored party in Senate or Presidential elections (and I would argue that VT and MD (and DC) are the only states that's true of on our side in even the most unfavorable circumstances).

                26, originally OK-1, currently NY-8. Former swingnut.

                by okiedem on Thu Mar 22, 2012 at 08:46:00 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  MA and RI aren't (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  itskevin, The Caped Composer

                  completely demographically similar, though. For one thing RI is actually experiencing much faster Hispanic growth, I believe (Hispanic population increased around 50% over the last decade here). I think the urban/suburban split might be more favorable in RI as well.

                  22, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

                  by sapelcovits on Thu Mar 22, 2012 at 09:10:40 AM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

    •  Md get real (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      dc1000, okiedem, pademocrat

      I live in Md, no republican can ever win statewide. Ehrlich was a fluke. Cardin has minimal competition in the primary but he will win the general by 25%.

  •  North Dakota's Heitkamp is going to (7+ / 0-)

    win.  You heard it here first.  She's a tireless campaigner and is very well liked all across the State.

    North Dakotans have some history of ejecting an officeholder they didn't know when they elected him in a Repug landslide, and that's what will happen with Berg, in my opinion. He was a relatively unknown state legislator when he was swept into office by the "throw the bums out" movement in 2010. Now that he's been their Congressman for almost two years, they find him pretty uninspiring, and if there's one thing Heidi Heitkamp is, it's inspiring.  She will have especially strong support among women and she's not being shy about going after that vote.  This week, she's all about the Violence Against Women Act and that is not an issue one would see as calculated to draw in North Dakota -- she's solidifying her base and it will pay off in the end.

    Bill Clinton attended the ND Dem-NPL Nominating Convention last weekend, getting lots of press for Heidi and all the endorsed candidates -- including two other terrific women:  Pam Gulleson, running for Berg's seat in Congress and Ellen Chaffee, a former two-college President on the ticket for Lieutenant Governor. Both will be great campaigners.  They know how to organize, they work very hard, and they are extraordinarily articulate.

    The big issue will be money. Berg got gazillions from the Chamber of Commerce when he defeated Pomeroy -- he was on the telly every minute and a half.  A little money goes a long way in North Dakota so, if we want to hang on to that seat, that's where we should send our bucks this year.

    It's going to be a fun year to watch in North Dakota. There's a lot going on out there and political awareness will be high.

    The good we secure for ourselves is precarious and uncertain, is floating in mid-air, until it is secured for all of us and incorporated into our common life. Jane Addams

    by Alice Olson on Thu Mar 22, 2012 at 07:42:58 AM PDT

  •  Thanks for ratings. Question for Kossacks, tho (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Alice Olson

    Is there a parallel series to advise us on action?

    For example, races we should already be helping by donating money, volunteering, writing letters to editors, and contributing to voter registration efforts?

    This means a lot to me.

    Thanks.

  •  NC-8 - New Poll has Kissell Leading (8+ / 0-)

    Just got an e-mail from the Kissell campaign about a new poll from Anzalone research showing Larry Kissell leading all of his leading Republican opponents (Hudson, Steen, & Whitley) by 10 points or more.

    Kissell 46, Richard Hudson 36

    Kissell is getting 70% of the minority vote. Given that he got 90% of the minority vote in 2010, that level of support would push him to 51% now.

    45% of the new NC-8 is new to Kissell.

    Majorities also viewed Kissell as honest & ethical, focused on creating jobs, and moderate or conservative.

    Sorry but unable to link at the moment.

    If Kissell has the resources, this is a seat that Democrats could potentially hold onto despite the best efforts of the GOP-led NC General Assembly to redistrict him out of office.

  •  OT, colors. Blue. Red. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Alice Olson

    Notice how bold and vital the color red is, compared to the color blue.

    I blame TV for the 'framing' and for the subsequent polarization.

    Nice maps and explanations on the Wikipedia page for Red States and Blue States:

    SNIPPET:

    This unofficial system of political colors used in the United States is the reverse of that in most  other long-established democracies, where Blue represents right-wing and conservative parties, and Red represents left-wing and social democratic parties.
    http://en.wikipedia.org/...

    It's not for nothing that mainstream media switched which colors represent the parties.

    A bit about color and psychology, physiology:
    http://www.precisionintermedia.com/...

    •  framing theory (0+ / 0-)

      ... this really isn't related to framing theory (also called second level effects of agenda setting):

      A frame in social theory consists of a schema of interpretation, a collection of anecdotes and stereotypes, that individuals rely on to understand and respond to events.
      http://en.wikipedia.org/..._(social_sciences)

      22, Nice Calm Burkean Post-Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Childhood), TX-21 (School), TX-10 (Home); SSP: wmayes

      by wwmiv on Thu Mar 22, 2012 at 08:06:52 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  On the other hand (0+ / 0-)

        I could definitely buy into the idea that the colors have a priming effect!:

        See Scheufele and Tweksbury's "Framing, Agenda-Setting, and Priming: The Evolution of Three Media-Effects Models" Journal Of Communication 57, 9-20

        22, Nice Calm Burkean Post-Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Childhood), TX-21 (School), TX-10 (Home); SSP: wmayes

        by wwmiv on Thu Mar 22, 2012 at 08:11:43 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  My understanding (0+ / 0-)

      was that red was somewhat threatening to men while blue is calming, whereas women are drawn more to red and averse to blue. This is the sort of thing I "know" because I read it in a magazine once or something but don't remember where are when.

  •  WI-Redistricting: Maps mostly upheld. (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, sapelcovits, askew

    The court ruled that the Legislature must redraw two assembly districts on the south side of Milwaukee, but that the rest of the maps are ok.

    However, given the fact the Republicans no longer unilaterally control the Legislature, Democrats potentially have leverage to force broader changes.

    http://www.jsonline.com/...

    •  Hmm (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, sapelcovits, itskevin, askew

      This story from Madison.com (The Capital Time & Wisconsin State Journal website) says election officials cannot use the GOP-drawn maps, and Peter Barca seems quite happy in his response.  The story sounds more hopeful for Dem chances of a re-draw, vs. the Journal-Sentinel story which makes it sound like just the 2 Milwaukee Assembly districts need a re-draw and everything else in the state will keep the GOP redistricting for the next 10 years.

      Madison.com story

      So, which is it?  GOP gerrymander with 2 districts that need redrawing?  Or a totally new map?  Or something else?

      •  Here's the deal (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades, LordMike, itskevin, askew

        The only constitutional violation the court found was in districts 8 & 9. They ordered the legislature to draw new maps to correct the violation. However, in order draw new maps, they'd have to pass new legislation, and the Republicans no longer control the Senate, so they wouldn't be able to pass a map that merely corrected the violation.

        I imagine that rather than throw out the whole map, the Republicans will just refuse to come back into session, and throw the whole thing back to the court, which will correct the map themselves.

  •  (That) Patrick Murphy on the air (3+ / 0-)

    In PA-AG race.  And I'm not linking to this because of the ad or the buy, but the Kathleen Kane camp's reaction.

    “How do you quote a shrug? Congressman Murphy gets to spend his $1.2 million as he sees fit.  Kathleen Kane gets to spend her $2 million as she sees fit,” said Kane Communications Director Josh Morrow.
    There's really nothing negative or offensive about the ad, but that reaction from the Kane camp is just beyond snobbish.  The idea he mentioned the COH numbers specifically in the response really tells it all, the Kane camp believes it can buy the race and that's pretty much their lone plan.

    http://www.politicspa.com/...

    "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

    by rdw72777 on Thu Mar 22, 2012 at 08:15:08 AM PDT

  •  IL-10: I don't think PPP was wrong (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    wwmiv, rdw72777

    I think that something screwy happened with turnout.  It's a primary race where Democrats have no upper-ticket reason to show up (unlike 2008, 2010).  Sheyman's base in places like Waukegan and North Chicago probably had poor turnout while Schneider's base in places like Deerfield had decent turnout.

    Sh*t politicians say: “Well It’s not a stereotype at all. This is a — you know, through the creative — this is a young woman in China who is speaking English. That’s quite an achievement. " -Pete Hoekstra

    by KingofSpades on Thu Mar 22, 2012 at 08:26:20 AM PDT

    •  illinoyedr said pretty much the same thing (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      rdw72777

      and he lives just outside this district so I take his word on it

      Sh*t politicians say: “Well It’s not a stereotype at all. This is a — you know, through the creative — this is a young woman in China who is speaking English. That’s quite an achievement. " -Pete Hoekstra

      by KingofSpades on Thu Mar 22, 2012 at 08:31:49 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Well (0+ / 0-)

      then they could have thrown that in their analysis to the people paying. Or more importantly the people paying may have even cited it as a worry.  But I doubt they could have fully figured it out beforehand, we have the benefit of hindsight.

      At the end of the day maybe the likely voter screen turned out to be bad, but maybe they had visibility based on area codes to determine which end of district the respondents were from.  It'd be interesting if PPP had that data and looked at that too.

      Maybe not though, I can never tell in Philly where the 215 area code ends and 856 or 646 begin.

      "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

      by rdw72777 on Thu Mar 22, 2012 at 08:35:35 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  I fear the Senate table is a tad optimistic. (0+ / 0-)

    McCaskill should be "Lean R"
    Heller should be "Lean R"
    Tester should be "Lean R"
    ND  should be "likely R"
    AZ should be "likely R" (even if Carmona runs--largest county is 60-40 Repub)

    Other small quibbles: ME should be "lean Angus" (lean D).  MA should be "lean Dem".

    I'll always be...King of Bain...I'll always be...King of Bain

    by AZphilosopher on Thu Mar 22, 2012 at 08:45:27 AM PDT

    •  Very confused why you move (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      itskevin, askew

      MA towards us if you're going to move MO, NV, MT, ND away from us.

      22, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

      by sapelcovits on Thu Mar 22, 2012 at 09:12:05 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  ND has been represented by Democrats (4+ / 0-)

      in the US Senate for decades, except for the most recent two years when Hoeven, "the most popular and longest serving governor in the nation," won Dorgan's seat against a very weak opponent whose entire campaign budget barely exceeded $100K.

      North Dakotans have proven over and over again that they want to send to Washington smart and appealing people who will represent them well.  Berg doesn't fill that bill, and Heitkamp does. So far, there's been only one poll made public and it showed Heitkamp up by 5%.  Admittedly, it was a Dem internal; but if Berg had one showing him ahead don't you suppose we'd have heard about it?

      Why do you say "likely R"?

      The good we secure for ourselves is precarious and uncertain, is floating in mid-air, until it is secured for all of us and incorporated into our common life. Jane Addams

      by Alice Olson on Thu Mar 22, 2012 at 09:53:55 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  AZ's largest county (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      sapelcovits

      is more like 55 45

      19, D, new CA-18 (home) new CA-13 (college). Economic liberal, social libertarian, fiscal conservative. -.5.38, -3.23 Check out my blog at politicohen.com

      by jncca on Thu Mar 22, 2012 at 11:14:14 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I'm using as my measure the Thomas (0+ / 0-)

        election results.  60-40 for a guy who had major legal troubles at the time.   I figure that's the true measure of who is voting R as opposed to self-identifies.

        I'll always be...King of Bain...I'll always be...King of Bain

        by AZphilosopher on Thu Mar 22, 2012 at 01:28:07 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Re: Rick Hudson... wow. (0+ / 0-)

    His Linked In page

    I don't think, aside from playing rugby, he's ever done a thing without a GOP pin on his collar.

  •  Washington state (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    WaltK, askew

    Sure it's early and events can happen, but you can move Cantwell to the safe D column.  This "rising star" R you mention is a nobody and from the East side, never gonna happen, take it to the bank.

    •  I'd be concerned if Reagan Dunn were running (0+ / 0-)

      Though I think Cantwell would still beat him by about 10.

      "I hope; therefore, I can live."
      For SSP users, see my Tips for Swingnuts diary

      by tietack on Thu Mar 22, 2012 at 11:20:49 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Baumgartner (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      stevenaxelrod

      A real snake who has a slick presentation and no ethics. He could indeed go far. He's mostly running 2-years into his 4-year Senate term to bump his name recognition for future attempts, a trick the late (and not-lamented) Jim West taught the local GOP. Washington legislature is not well-paid, no place for a fellow with aspirations like this carpetbagging a-hole. Surprisingly, Cantwell is much better liked in eastern Washington than the less liberal Patty Murray or our disastrous (in terms of firing up the opposition) governor of the past 8 years, Gregoire. Cantwell took Spokane County and essentially tied in the red 5th CD 6 years ago. She may slip a little, but not much.

      William O. Douglas- “I am for the individual over government, government over big business and the environment over all.”

      by WaltK on Thu Mar 22, 2012 at 12:06:55 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Please include with these election updates . . . (0+ / 0-)

    the number of seats we need to win to maintain the dem majority. Without that context, it's not immediately obvious how we're doing!

  •  WA-05 (Tom Foley's old district) (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades

    Rich Cowan IS hitting the phones hard. Also developing a lot of support in the business community, which no matter their party affiliation, has come to realize McMorris Rodgers is an ideologue with zero ability to do anything for the district. She spends most of her time in San Diego when she's not in DC. Her biggest goal seems to be the GOP power broker for the entire state, having succeeded at helping staffers get elected in WA-03 and as Spokane mayor. But that is causing rifts in the GOP. Cowan has a very uphill battle, but there are cracks appearing in the McMorris facade. And she is totally capable of a "Macaca moment," a vicious personality who is virulently "Wise Use" anti-environmentalist, plus a Dominionist Christian.

    Redistricting made 05 slightly more Spokane-centric, about 75%. Not the greatest liberal bastion, until you look at the outlying areas pared off.

    Mary Verner is NOT running this year. She's now CEO of Spokane Tribal Enterprises, and is laying the groundwork for a 2014 run.

    William O. Douglas- “I am for the individual over government, government over big business and the environment over all.”

    by WaltK on Thu Mar 22, 2012 at 11:56:02 AM PDT

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