Mitt Romney is still the underwhelming overwhelming favorite (Jessica Rinahldi/Reuters)
According to
AP's delegate count heading into Saturday's Louisiana primary, Mitt Romney had 563 delegates, putting him 581 short of the 1,144 he needed to clinch the nomination and making him the only candidate with a realistic chance of securing the nomination before the convention. Despite Rick Santorum's blowout win, Romney gained another 5 delegates, bringing his total to 568 and putting him 576 short, maintaining his position as the only candidate with a shot of clinching before the convention.
Before Louisiana, Mitt Romney had won 48.5 percent of the delegates available in states that had already voted. After Louisiana, that figure dropped to 47 percent, because Romney won just 5 of the 46 delegates in the state.
In the 34 contests that have already been held, 1,187 delegates have been up for grabs; 173 of them—14.6 percent—remain unallocated. That includes some super delegates, some unbound delegates, and delegates that will be selected in future state caucuses. Before Louisiana, there were 142 unallocated delegates from states that already voted and 1,133 unallocated delegates from states that hadn't. Those figures are now 173 and 1,087—a total of 1,260.
A simpler way of looking at those numbers is that before Louisiana, 1,275 delegates had yet to be allocated. That number is now 1,260—a relatively small shift. However, in states that have yet to vote, there are now just 1,087 unallocated delegates, down from 1,133 before Louisiana.
Heading into Saturday's event, Mitt Romney needed to win 581 of the 1,275 total unallocated delegates to secure the nomination, 45.6 percent. Afterward, he needed to win 576 of the 1,260 unallocated delegates, 45.7 percent. So there was virtually no change there.
However, if you only look at the unallocated delegates available from states that have yet to vote, the numbers change. Before Saturday, Romney needed 581 of 1,133 delegates available from states that had not yet voted—51.3 percent. Now he needs 576 of the 1,087 delegates available from states that have not yet voted—53 percent.
As you will recall from the above numbers, Romney thus far has won 47 percent of available delegates from states that have already voted, significantly less than the 53 percent he needs from the future states. If Romney were to continue to win at that 47 percent clip from here on out, he'd end up with 1,087 delegates, short of the 1,144 he needs.
Of course, Romney would still be in an extremely strong position. He'd need 57 more delegates, and if unallocated delegates continued at their current pace, there would be a pool of about 331 unallocated delegates, from which he'd need just 57.
So there really isn't much question about whether he'll win the nomination; there's mostly just a question of how he'll win it. And if he doesn't pick up the pace, it won't be Republican voters who ultimately make him the nominee; it will be insiders.