See the previous diary for a rundown on the method. This diary will follow a bit of a different method in terms of pictures because of California's elephantine size. Each district will be given its own photograph, but I will include statewide and regional photographs at the end of the diary.
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District 1
Mike Thompson (D-St.Helena)
Safe Democratic
69.5 White, 19.9 Hispanic
62.6-58.4 Obama
58.4-41.6 Brown
This district expands inland quite a bit and, hence, becomes much redder. Not that that means the district is competitive at all... Napa Valley is the key area in the district and, as such, whoever represents it will represent winery interests.
District 2
Wally Herger (R-Chico)
Likely Democratic
61.4 White, 19.1 Hispanic, 9.8 Asian
57.7-42.3 Obama
55.9-44.1 Brown
I took this district all the way into Sacramento so as to vote sink Redding into the 4th. Chico and Yuba City are Democratic enough now that I can't imagine a Republican actually winning here barring a scandal.
District 3
Dan Lungren (R-Gold River)
Tossup
69.4 White, 14.0 Hispanic, 7.5 Asian
51.0-49.0 Obama
50.2-49.8 Whitman
Contracting substantially into the urban Sacramento core, this district can now legitimately be described as a tossup. Lungren is way too far to the right to continue winning here, but the average voter is probably too stupid to know that and will continue to vote whichever way the wind blows.
District 4
Tom McClintock (R-Roseville)
Non-Winnable
83.1 White, 9.8 Hispanic
56.6-43.4 McCain
59.6-40.4 Whitman
I had this as winnable. See comments for change. *Rating this district as winnable is admittedly a stretch, but as we definitely came close to winning in 2008 I think its appropriate even with the addition of Redding.
District 5
Doris Matsui (D-Sacramento)
Likely Democratic
46.2 White, 20.5 Asian, 19.1 Hispanic, 10.3 African American
57.2-42.8 Obama
56.6-43.4 Brown
Although the district moves form D+15 to D+5, I feel comfortable with Matsui's ability here. This district is actually less white and more minority than before, so it would take alot of effort for the GOP to actually win.
District 6
Lynn Woolsey (D-Petaluma)
Safe Democratic
72.5 White, 17.9 Hispanic
77.2-22.8 Obama
70.1-29.9 Brown
Same as before. It would take an apocalypse for Republicans to win this district.
District 7
George Miller (D-Martinez)
Safe Democratic
44.9 White, 23.0 Hispanic, 15.1 Asian, 12.8 African American
67.3-32.7 Obama
64.2-35.8 Brown
I took San Pueblo and Richmond and moved them to a neighboring district, but other than that this is much the same as before.
District 8
Nancy Pelosi (D-San Francisco)
Safe Democratic
47.1 White, 31.2 Asian, 13.0 Hispanic
86.6-13.4 Obama
82.2-17.8 Brown
This district is likely to elect an Asian representative when Pelosi hangs up her saddle.
District 9
Barbara Lee (D-Oakland)
Safe Democratic
32.8 White, 23.3 Asian, 20.4 Hispanic, 20.0 African American
86.5-13.5 Obama
84.9-15.1 Brown
I took out a substantial portion of Berkeley which was overwhelmingly white to keep this district as minority as possible. Other than that the district is unchanged.
District 10
John Garamendi (D-Walnut Grove)
Safe Democratic
53.7 White, 18.0 Hispanic, 17.0 Asian, 8.0 African American
76.8-23.2 Obama
71.6-28.4 Brown
Garamendi's home base isn't in the district anymore (not that it was of any particular size or electoral strength anyway), but that shouldn't be a problem as he has statewide legitimacy from his stint as Lt. Governor.
District 11
Jerry McNerney (D-Pleasanton)
Safe Democratic
43.0 White, 28.6 Asian, 19.7 Hispanic
67.1-32.9 Obama
59.2-40.8 Brown
This is what is called "shoring up a valuable member of the team". On the other hand, though, this may make him significantly vulnerable to an Asian-based primary challenge with the Asian percentage quadrupled.
District 12
Jackie Speier
Safe Democratic
41.1 White, 32.5 Asian, 20.9 Hispanic
74.4-25.6 Obama
69.3-30.7 Brown
The Asian percentage in this district is slightly higher than it was, but the key factor here is that the white percentage is significantly cut. When Speier retires, don't be surprised to see an Asian representative take her seat.
District 13
Pete Stark (D-Fremont) v. Mike Honda (D-San Jose)
Safe Democratic
42.0 Asian, 27.2 Hispanic, 25.1 White
72.6-27.4 Obama
67.9-32.1 Brown
I love myself some Pete Stark, but a district had to be eliminated in Northern California somewhere due to slow growth relative to the Inland Empire. Mike Honda is definitely favored here for two reasons: Asians comprise the bulk of the district (lets assume that they vote as a bloc, which we all know is a dubious assertion) and San Jose definitely comprises a larger base than Fremont. From here on out the incumbent representatives may not match the district numbers assigned to them, but rest assured that they're place in the districts modeled on their current constituencies.
District 14
Anna Eshoo (D-Atherton)
Safe Democratic
50.0 White, 29.6 Asian, 15.4 Hispanic
73.1-26.9 Obama
64.1-35.9 Brown
Anna's district shifts just a slight bit south, but stays in large measure the same.
District 15
Zoe Lofgren (D-San Jose)
Safe Democratic
50.9 White, 25.0 Hispanic, 18.9 Asian
72.5-27.5 Obama
65.9-34.1 Brown
Zoe actually gets safer in that she could no longer be conceivably challenged in a race-based primary - the district's white share jumps by 20 percent.
District 16
Sam Farr (D-Carmel)
Safe Democratic
56.4 Hispanic, 33.6 White
66.7-33.3 Obama
60.7-39.3 Brown
Now a Hispanic majority district instead of one with a white-Hispanic racial parity by extending into the central valley to take in Madera. Nonetheless, Sam Farr can probably continue winning primary elections here.
District 17
Dennis Cardoza (D-Atwater)
Lean Democratic
46.7 White, 40.1 Hispanic, 7.5 Asian
55.7-44.3 Obama
50.3-49.7 Brown
The configuration of this district actually makes me quite nervous for Cardoza's future electoral prospects. It is now plurality white, instead of plurality Hispanic, because it lost Stockton. As time moves forward, however, this district will slip further and further away from Republicans. They'd need to win this immediately and entrench that person quickly to hold it for any time frame longer than a term or two.
District 18
No Incumbent
Safe Democratic
39.2 White, 34.9 Hispanic, 14.7 Asian, 7.8 African American
60.2-39.8 Obama
56.1-43.9 Brown
This is basically an entirely new configuration based in Stockton. I'd bet money that a Hispanic will win the primary, as whites here are significantly Republican.
District 19
Jim Costa (D-Fresno)
Likely Democratic
61.5 Hispanic, 23.3 White, 7.3 African American
57.7-42.3 Obama
56.1-43.9 Brown
Unfortunately, Costa had to shed a few Hispanic to neighboring districts for two reasons. The first is that this district grew, and the second is to make the others more Democratic. I wouldn't be too worried about him though.
District 20
Devin Nunes (R-Tulare)
Winnable
42.7 White, 42.1 Hispanic, 9.0 Asian
50.9-49.1 McCain
57.1-42.9 Whitman
Tulare is actually outside this district, but he represents the majority of it. The other major reason I've placed him here is that Kevin McCarthy is extremely likely to take the district that Tulare is in. He's also a better fit in this extremely Hispanic district (despite him being of Portuguese descent and not Mexican).
District 21
Kevin McCarthy (R-Bakersfield)
Non-Winnable
47.2 White, 42.7 Hispanic
60.9-39.1 McCain
62.4-37.6 Whitman
I wanted, desperately, to rate this district as "winnable" because of the demographics, but in the end I knew better. The citizenship rates, participation rates, and whatever else rates for Hispanics are just too low to make a difference.
District 22
Lois Capps (D-Santa Barbara)
Likely Democratic
62.0 White, 29.0 Hispanic
57.7-42.3 Obama
50.3-49.7 Brown
In order to dismantle a bunch of Republican districts, this had to expand inland quite a bit. I'm not too worried about Lois Capps' ability to win here, though, so it isn't too big a deal.
District 23
Elton Gallegly (R-Simi Valley)
Likely Democratic
50.7 White, 38.6 Hispanic, 6.8 Asian
57.5-42.5 Obama
50.7-49.3 Whitman
The addition of Oxnard, Ventura, and other coastal communities screws Gallegly royally.
District 24
Jeff Denham (R-Atwater)
Non-Winnable
69.5 White, 20.8 Hispanic
61.2-38.8 McCain
63.4-36.6 Whitman
This district wasn't hard to classify (quite clearly not winnable under any circumstances). What was hard was to identify who the incumbents were. Obviously the district most resembles McKeon's, despite the lack of his suburban political base, but it also takes in a substantial portion of Denham's current district. I chose Denham because McKeon has other good options to run in.
District 25
David Dreier (R-San Dimas)
Lean Democratic
58.7 White, 22.1 Hispanic, 10.8 Asian
55.9-44.1 Obama
51.5-48.5 Brown
Instead of being narrowly Obama and narrowly Whitman, the district is moderately Obama and narrowly Brown. I think this qualifies as legitimately lean Democratic, but the "moderate' Dreier may be able to hold on for a few more terms given the district's high income makeup.
District 26
Brad Sherman (D-Sherman Oaks)
Safe Democratic
51.5 White, 28.4 Hispanic, 13.8 Asian
61.6-38.4 Obama
53.4-46.6 Brown
In this alternate universe Sherman gets his own district in the west San Fernando Valley and parts of Simi Valley.
District 27
Howard Berman (D-North Hollywood)
Safe Democratic
57.3 Hispanic, 28.9 White, 8.1 Asian
77.2-22.8 Obama
73.9-26.1 Brown
Berman, also in this alternative universe, gets his own district, but in the east San Fernando Valley.
District 28
Adam Schiff (D-Burbank)
Likely Democratic
59.4 White, 23.5 Hispanic, 11.0 Asian
58.3-41.7 Obama
51.1-48.9 Brown
Adam Schiff, as a Blue Dog, could afford to take on a much more conservative district than he previously had (where he was well to the right of what the district could support). Even this district could support someone more liberal, but that is neither here nor there.
District 29
Henry Waxman (D-Los Angeles)
Safe Democratic
72.0 White, 10.9 Asian 10.6 Hispanic
74.8-25.2 Obama
68.3-31.7 Brown
Henry Waxman's district, of all the L.A. area districts, most closely resembles his current constituency.
District 30
Xavier Becerra (D-Los Angeles)
Safe Democratic
57.1 Hispanic, 17.7 Asian, 16.7 White, 6.8 African American
83.1-16.9 Obama
83.2-16.8 Brown
I know what you're thinking: this district is totally bad on communities of interest concerns! Well, actually, it isn't that bad according to the map from the last decade (which I basically just smoothed out). It isn't as Hispanic as the previous iteration by a long shot, but population shifts prevented it from being any more than I have it if the goal was continuity. I doubt Becerra would face any significant challenge as no other group is a large percentage.
District 31
Judy Chu (D-Monterrey Park)
Likely Democratic
50.8 Asian, 25.4 Hispanic, 20.1 White
58.7-41.3 Obama
53.9-46.1 Brown
In the interest of protecting Judy Chu, I made as Asian a district as was possible and it just happened to get to majority. I wonder if this would qualify as a VRA protected district? Any input on this?
District 32
Karen Bass (D-Los Angeles) v. Maxine Waters (D-Los Angeles)
Safe Democratic
33.4 Hispanic, 29.9 African American, 25.4 White, 8.5 Asian
82.7-17.3 Obama
78.1-21.9 Brown
The second primary matchup sees someone who isn't really corrupt with someone who sure as hell is. Good riddance to Waters, but I hope Bass would win.
District 33
Lucille Roybal-Allard (D-Los Angeles)
Safe Democratic
72.8 Hispanic, 13.3 African American, 7.9 Asian
88.0-12.0 Obama
87.7-12.3 Brown
Lucille's district actually isn't the most Hispanic in the state anymore.
District 34
Buck McKeon (R-Santa Clarita) v. Jerry Lewis (R-Redlands)
Winnable
41.5 White, 39.2 Hispanic, 12.6 African American
50.6-49.4 McCain
55.0-45.0 Whitman
This is the district I mentioned above when I said that McKeon had another good option to run in. Unlike his current district, McCain actually won this one. Another Republican has a good claim on this district, though, which could help us if the primary turns bitter: Jerry Lewis. His district was completely dismantled. The only large population base left together was the Hesperia-Apple Valley area - and guess where that is?
District 35
Janice Hahn (D-Los Angeles)
Likely Democratic
40.6 White, 30.7 Hispanic, 21.8 Asian
58.5-41.5 Obama
52.9-47.1 Brown
In order to accomodate expansions of some other districts, this had to shift down the coast slightly. As a result, it became somewhat more Republican.
District 36
Laura Richardson (D-Long Beach)
Safe Democratic
39.1 Hispanic, 23.0 African American, 17.9 White, 17.7 Asian
75.5-24.5 Obama
72.2-27.8 Brown
Another incumbent representative that I could care less for on the back of corruption and impropriety.
District 37
Grace Napolitano (D-Norwalk)
Safe Democratic
73.9 Hispanic, 13.0 White, 9.6 Asian
73.5-26.5 Obama
72.7-27.3 Brown
As a result of the new Asian district to the north, Norwalk was severed from Pomona. I actually tend to think this is good news for Napolitano, as it was a competing population base with different interests from which a primary challenge could emerge.
District 38
Linda Sanchez (D-Lakewood)
Safe Democratic
57.7 Hispanic, 21.7 White, 13.2 Asian
64.1-35.9 Obama
61.2-38.8 Brown
This district absorbs some moderately Republican places like La Mirada and Cypress so that surrounding, and more marginal, districts don't have to. I wouldn't be too worried about the wonderful Linda Sanchez, though, as she's got national support.
District 39
Ed Royce (R-Fullerton)
Tossup
39.0 White, 32.4 Hispanic, 21.6 Asian
53.0-47.0 Obama
53.4-46.6 Whitman
This district shifts radically to the left with its large shift to the west. Ed Royce can probably hang on for another few terms under such lines, but will be gone soon if targeted heavily.
District 40
Gary Miller (R-Diamond Bar) v. John Campbell (R-Irvine)
Winnable
57.3 White, 21.6 Hispanic, 17.0 Asian
50.3-49.7 McCain
61.2-38.8 Whitman
You're probably thinking I'm insane for rating this as winnable given the Whitman performance, aren't you? I disagree. I think that the truth lies in between the two results, and given that I drew this district to take in every Obama or close to Obama precinct in Orange county that one of the better districts didn't take in, I might as well rank the fruits of that labor as favorable to us!
District 41
No Incumbent
Safe Democratic
60.0 Hispanic, 19.1 White, 17.0 Asian
65.0-35.0 Obama
62.8-37.2 Brown
This is the replacement Hispanic district from the creation of Judy Chu's Asian majority paradise. A totally new creation based in West Covina and El Monte.
District 42
No Incumbent
Safe Democratic
52.8 Hispanic, 29.3 White, 8.9 Asian, 7.1 African American
60.9-39.1 Obama
57.0-43.0 Brown
Also a totally new creation on the heels of Judy Chu's Asian majority paradise, but not as a replacement. It is, instead, because that district necessitated the split of Pomona from Norwalk. I'm not sure this will elect a Hispanic representative right away, but it does stand a decent chance as doing so.
District 43
Joe Baca (D-Rialto)
Safe Democratic
57.2 Hispanic, 23.6 White, 11.3 African American
65.4-34.6 Obama
63.3-36.7 Brown
Joe Baca's San Bernadino based 43rd is safely in his hands for as long as he, or whatever Hispanic succeeds him, wants it.
District 44
Ken Calvert (R-Corona)
Lean Democratic
44.1 Hispanic, 37.5 White, 9.2 Asian, 7.0 African American
55.0-45.0 Obama
50.3-49.7 Brown
Calvert's district loses the blood-red portions of Orange County that have been keeping him in office since 1993. He's no better than a 50/50 bet for reelection under these lines.
District 45
Mary Bono-Mack (R-Palm Springs)
Lean Democratic
50.1 Hispanic, 42.3 White
55.9-44.1 Obama
50.8-49.2 Brown
I honestly don't know if Democrats could dislodge Mary from her seat given that she actually is a moderate on some issues. Without regard to her, though, the seat definitely leans Democratic.
District 46
Dana Rohrabacher (R-Huntington Beach)
Non-Winnable
70.8 White, 13.3 Hispanic, 12.6 Asian
56.6-43.4 McCain
67.5-32.5 Whitman
This is probably the most Republican district in the state if you go only by the Brown-Whitman numbers. Rohrabacher could potentially see a primary challenge from John Campbell, if he decides not to run in the prior district I've assigned him to.
District 47
Loretta Sanchez (D-Anaheim)
Safe Democratic
61.0 Hispanic, 22.9 White, 13.0 Asian
60.1-39.9 Obama
55.1-44.9 Brown
Loretta should be safe here, as will any Democrat.
District 48
No Incumbent
Tossup
41.1 White, 36.8 Hispanic, 12.2 Asian, 7.4 African American
53.3-46.7 Obama
54.4-45.6 Whitman
Ken Calvert may actually run here, where his chances are better in the general. Unfortunately, his political base is wholly outside the district, so he may be vulnerable to a primary challenge - one which may be bitter and through the district to the Democrats.
District 49
Darrell Issa (R-Vista)
Non-Winnable
62.3 White, 24.5 Hispanic
60.0-40.0 McCain
67.0-33.0 Whitman
If you look at both of the results, this is definitely the most Republican district in the state.
District 50
Brian Bilbray (R-Carlsbad)
Winnable
60.4 White, 20.9 Hispanic, 13.6 Asian
52.9-47.1 Obama
57.6-42.4 Whitman
I didn't know it was possible to do what I did here. I both made this district more Obama (he got 51.3 percent here) and more Whitman at the same time (she got 55.2 percent). Despite Obama's strong performance, I wouldn't call this a tossup. Even within the "winnable" category this is probably on the outer bounds of our possibilities.
District 51
Bob Filner (D-San Diego)
Safe Democratic
51.7 Hispanic, 26.8 White, 12.9 Asian
60.4-39.6 Obama
55.1-44.9 Brown
Does anyone know why Obama performed so strongly in San Diego County relative to Brown (or why Brown did so poorly here)? Whoever succeeds Filner will probably, finally, be Hispanic.
District 52
Duncan Hunter (R-Lakeside)
Tossup
55.1 White, 23.6 Hispanic, 9.6 Asian, 8.3 African American
54.4-45.6 Obama
51.7-48.3 Whitman
Duncan Hunter is probably too conservative to hold this district, but we should never underestimate the ability of a tossup district to elect a member out of the mainstream.
District 53
Susan Davis (D-San Diego)
Likely Democratic
63.4 White, 17.7 Hispanic, 12.8 Asian
60.0-40.0 Obama
50.6-49.4 Brown
Again I must ask why Brown did so badly in San Diego county. Why?
Recap
Pennsylvania
7 Safe, 3 Likely, 3 Tossup, 5 Non-Winnable
New York
15 Safe, 5 Likely, 2 Lean, 3 Tossup, 1 Winnable, 1 Non-Winnable
At Large and The South
See comments for changes to Georgia, North Carolina, and Virginia
26 Safe, 7 Likely, 2 Lean, 9 Tossup, 11 Winnable, 35 Non-Winnable
California
See comments for changes to certain districts
28 Safe, 8 Likely, 4 Lean, 3 Tossup, 5 Winnable, 5 Non-Winnable
Total
76 Safe, 23 Likely, 8 Lean, 18 Tossup, 17 Winnable, 46 Non-Winnable