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8:54 AM PT: NY-21: Whoa. Did you guys get a load of this? Sometimes, a headline is all that you need:
Matt Doheny, ‘Strongest GOP Challenger in Country,’ Sucks Face with Campaign Consultant Who Is Not His Fiancée
Gawker (which broke the story, natch) has pics at the link—which
Doheny claims merely show "two old friends joking around." Gawker, of course, brought down another upstate New York Republican politician (ex-Rep. Chris Lee) thanks in part to compromising photos it managed to score... though those were only the tip of the iceberg. So if I were Doheny, I wouldn't feel like I was in a very happy place right now. (And if I were a local GOP official, I'd be wondering if how we'd be able to find a substitute with just a couple of weeks left before the filing deadline.)
8:58 AM PT: FL-Sen, OH-Sen: Quinnipiac has brand-new numbers out this morning for the hotly contested Senate races in both Florida and Ohio. Both show good results for Democrats, with Florida Sen. Bill Nelson increasing his lead over Rep. Connie Mack, and Ohio Sen. Sherrod Brown holding steady, by-and-large, with a double-digit margin over Treasurer Josh Mandel. We'll bring you the full results, and our analysis, later today.
9:07 AM PT: KS Redistricting: It seems like the Kansas House finally passed a congressional redistricting plan, one which splits the state capital of Topeka into two districts (it's currently entirely within a single seat). Amusing side-detail: The map was named "Bob Dole 1," even though "the iconic former Republican senator had no role in putting it together." (Bob Dole!) However, the process is far from over: Now the House and Senate, which passed its own map, have to form a conference committee to hammer out the differences. That may be a very tall order, given the intra-party cleavages that exist in the Kansas GOP.
9:31 AM PT: MD-06: It looks like that massive cash advantage is paying off for financier John Delaney: He's touting a new internal poll from Garin-Hart-Yang showing him with a 49-23 lead over state Sen. Rob Garagiola in the Democratic primary. (Physician Milad Pooran is back at 10.) The election is on Tuesday, so if these numbers are accurate, Garagiola is going to have a hard time turning things around.
Garagiola did get one piece of good news on Thursday, though: Gov. Martin O'Malley is endorsing him. Is this the kind of thing that moves votes, though? Well, O'Malley is about as big a name as you can get in Maryland Democratic circles, but unless he's leveraging whatever machine he has in the region, it's hard to imagine it will be enough.
9:37 AM PT: Filing Deadlines: Candidate filing deadlines passed in Missouri and South Dakota earlier this week; follow the links for official candidate lists.
9:52 AM PT: PA-12: Hoo boy. It looks like Jason Altmire really fucked up on this one. It's gonna require a bit of explanation, though. Remember last year when the House voted on a series of budget bills, culminating with the infamous Ryan plan which has caused Republicans no end of grief since they passed it? Well, just before the Ryan plan came up for a vote, the House voted on an amendment colloquially known as the "RSC budget" (that stands for the Republican Study Committee, home of the most radical dystopian wreckers in Congress). That budget was even more frightening than the Ryan plan—so frightening, in fact, that GOP leadership didn't want it to pass.
But Democrats were sharp—real canny. Republicans expected Dems would do them a favor and vote en masse against the RSC budget. That, plus a few GOP votes would have been enough to tank it. But Democrats utterly punked the Republicans because orders came down from the Minority Whip's office for Team Blue to merely vote "present" on the RSC amendment. All of a sudden, the GOP was faced with the very real possibility that the RSC budget might pass and had to madly scramble to whip its own members to vote against the bill, so that they could ensure its failure!
Well, pretty much every Dem followed Steny Hoyer's instructions, though a few voted "no" rather than "present"—and as I said above, in this case, a "no" vote was a gift to the Republicans. "Present" was the vote you took to screw with them. The handful of Dems who voted "no" were mostly more conservative Blue Dog types, with a couple of folks seeking higher office who didn't want to have to explain a complicated vote like this. One of those 16 "nays," though, was Jason Altmire, while his primary opponent, fellow Rep. Mark Critz, voted "present," along with 171 fellow Democrats. (The GOP did manage to tank the bill in the end.)
So why have I recounted all of this? Because in his newest ad, Altmire tried to attack Critz because he "didn't vote against the Tea Party budget that would dismantle Medicare and gut Social Security." But that, of course, is absolute bullshit. Critz did exactly the right thing and helped Democrats put a serious scare into the GOP. Altmire gave them succor at a time when they most needed it. Jake Sternberg of Keystone Politics lays this all out in even greater detail, but again I say, this is utter bullshit on Altmire's part. What's even more pathetic is that he had to stretch so far to find a vote where he could even try to position himself to Critz's left... and he still completely failed to do so. Altmire needs to take down this ad.
9:53 AM PT: Remarkably, by the way, as I write this, the House is voting on the Garrett amendment yet again. Let's see if history repeats itself.
10:44 AM PT: CPA: Josh Lederman takes a look at the updated target list of the Campaign for Primary Accountability, the weirdo super PAC which tries to unseat incumbents of both parties just for the crime of being an incumbent. But just because a name appears in the CPA's crosshairs doesn't necessarily mean much: Their spending has varied a lot between races, in some cases acting as a difference-maker and in others being very modest. So don't expect them to go all-out against every candidate named in Lederman's piece.
11:07 AM PT: NH Redistricting: The New Hampshire state Senate has now passed a new congressional redistricting plan, somewhat different from the one a panel cleared the other week. It apparently represents a compromise between GOP Reps. Frank Guinta and Charlie Bass, both of whom wanted redder turf—obviously an impossible situation in a state with only two districts. So in the end, only small changes were made: The towns of Center Harbor, Deerfield, and Northwood move from NH-01 to NH-02, while Campton, Sanbornton, and Tilton head the other way. The state House still has to sign off, though if this new map truly reflects a deal between Guinta and Bass, it's hard to see them not doing so.
11:39 AM PT: PA-AG: Just a few days after her rival for the Democratic AG nod, Patrick Murphy, went up on the air, Kathleen Kane, is doing the same. She has two ads: One is an introductory spot, the other tells of a man she prosecuted for rape whose brother then threatened her.
12:28 PM PT: PA-12: Pushback from Mark Critz: He held a conference call on Thursday afternoon with two senior House Democrats, Pennsylvania's Bob Brady (who just cut him a check the other day) and Illinois's Jan Schakowsky, both of whom defended Critz's "present" vote when the RSC budget came before Congress last year. Jason Altmire, for his part, has doubled down, putting out a press release (not online as yet) defending his bullshit ad and saying "Critz didn’t take a stand against the Tea Party when he had the chance. Critz didn’t stand up for seniors." The problem for Altmire is that he's now taking on pretty much the entire Dem caucus, since 176 other Democrats, in addition to Critz, all voted "present." That takes a lot of balls... but not a whole lot of brains.
12:32 PM PT: NH-Gov: Is New Hampshire's Republican gubernatorial field finally set? Rich guy Steve Kenda, who had floated his name for a possible run some time ago, has decided not to pull the trigger. That leaves Granite State GOPers to choose between one-time teabagger (but now establishment favorite) Ovide Lamontage and bonafide still-a-teabagger Kevin Smith.
12:35 PM PT: IL-08: GOP Rep. Joe Walsh is just one of those guys where it's just better to let him do the talking:
Sitting inside a coffee shop during a recent 30-minute interview, Walsh had several of his trademark characteristics on display: a feverish intensity, an embrace of rhetorical combat and unfettered criticism of his opponent, who lost both of her legs and part of her right arm in 2004 after her helicopter was struck by a rocket-propelled grenade.
"I have so much respect for what she did in the fact that she sacrificed her body for this country," said Walsh, simultaneously lowering his voice as he leaned forward before pausing for dramatic effect. "Ehhh. Now let's move on."
"What else has she done? Female, wounded veteran … ehhh," he continued. "She is nothing more than a handpicked Washington bureaucrat. David Axelrod, Rahm Emanuel just picked her up and dropped her into this district."
12:42 PM PT: NJ-10: Irvington mayor Wayne Smith, whose interest in the race had been clear for a while, officially announced his entry into the contest to replace the late Donald Payne earlier this week. Smith is the fourth Democrat declare a bid, joining Donald Payne, Jr., Ron Rice, and Nia Gill.
12:59 PM PT: PA-12: Hey! I just spotted a unicorn! Yes, it's an actual union actually endorsing Dem Rep. Jason Altmire. The Plumbers and Steamfitters Local 47 just gaving him their backing, one of only two labor groups (I believe) to do so—the rest have all gone for Mark Critz. As you'd expect, of course, there's a geographic connection here: Local 47 is based on Beaver County, Altmire's home turf.
1:07 PM PT: CA-10: We previously told you about the Republican lawsuit to prevent Democrat Jose Hernandez from describing himself on the June ballot as an "astronaut." Well, I think I have to break my usual rule against posting campaign web videos, because Hernandez' response is just awesome:
2:45 PM PT: MO-Sen: This is nice to see: The Dem-aligned group VoteVets is going up with a $200K ad buy on behalf of Sen. Claire McCaskill, touting her work on behalf of veterans. The spot (which you can watch at the link) features Iraq vets talking about how she protected their access to healthcare and helped push through a new GI Bill. I think it's pretty good.
2:48 PM PT: NY-06: Is the Democratic primary in NY-06 going to turn into a labor vs. EMILY's List race? Assemblyman Rory Lancmacn just picked up his third union endorsement, from the powerful SEIU Local 32BJ. EMILY announced a few days ago that they'd support Lancman's main opponent, Assemblywoman Grace Meng, who also has the formal backing of the Queens Democratic Party. It'll be very interesting to see how this one plays out.
2:52 PM PT: CA-10: Awesome: A state court judge just ruled that Democrat Jose Hernandez can indeed list his profession as "astronaut" on the June top-two primary ballot. Republicans are deciding whether to appeal. (Go ahead, please keep on providing us more free media.) Hernandez also has a good sense of humor, saying: "I thought the hardest part of being an astronaut was the training. I didn't realize it was going to be proving it in court."
2:59 PM PT: NJ-09: Even though he's been preparing for years and has a federal campaign account with $700K burning a hole in his pocket, former Englewood mayor Michael Wildes will reportedly not run for Congress this year, according to PolitickerNJ's sources. Instead, he will apparently endorse his fellow former Englewood mayor, Rep. Steve Rothman, who of course faces Rep. Bill Pascrell in the Democratic primary.
3:07 PM PT: CA-39: This is an interesting, under-the-radar development: Businessman and local school board member Jay Chen, who only entered the race in January, says that he's already raised about $250K in his first eight weeks. Chen also says that a poll he commissioned from Tulchin Research before joining the contest showed Republican Rep. Ed Royce winning by a not-completely-hopeless 50-33 margin. However, this district will be a tough go for any Democrat: Even though John McCain only won it by a 49-47 spread, Republicans did much better here in 2010, with gubernatorial candidate Meg Whitman taking 54% and Senate nominee Carly Fiorina pulling 55%. However, the district has sizable Asian and Hispanic populations and in fact is majority-minority (just not any one single minority). Chen has his work cut out for him, but this could be a sleeper worth watching.
3:10 PM PT: Nebraska: PPP has the usual batch of miscellany for the Cornhusker State. Among other things, GOP Gov. Dave Heineman appears to be the most popular governor in the nation.
3:14 PM PT: NC-Init: Tom Jensen has some depressing polling about the constitutional amendment that would ban both gay marriage and civil unions set to go before North Carolina voters in just six weeks:
Only 31% of voters correctly identify that Amendment 1 bans both gay marriage and civil unions.
28% think that it only bans gay marriage.
7% think that it actually legalizes gay marriage.
34% admit that they don't know exactly what the amendment does.
It's little surprise that the amendment is therefore passing by a 58-38 margin, even though a majority of voters say they support some form of legal recognition for same-sex couples. I guess you can view this as glass-half-full: "When voters are informed that the amendment bans both gay marriage and civil unions their tune changes quite a bit. Only 41% of voters say they'll support it knowing that, while 42% are opposed." But as Tom says, there isn't much time left to educate people.
3:20 PM PT: MA-Sen: Republican Sen. Scott Brown has now been dinged a second time on account of an outside group spending money to influence the race—but this one is gonna sting a little more. Per his agreement with Elizabeth Warren, he'll now have to cut a check for $35K to a charity of her choosing because the American Petroleum Institute ran radio ads on his behalf. (Last time, the amount was only in the low four figures.) Of course, Brown still has enormous sums of cash, but the goodwill stunts he pulled the first time (even airing his own ads touting the fact that he lived up to the deal—such a good guy!) can't really be repeated. And if some group is stupid enough to go in with six figures, that will genuinely be felt, since the fines are commensurate with the expenditures.
3:32 PM PT: PA-Sen: Another Wenzel Strategies poll of the GOP Senate race (for Citizens United) shows higher vote totals than that all-single-digits affair from Franklin & Marshall the other day, but the numbers are still awful for rich guy Steven Welch. The survey has the other rich guy, Tom Smith, leading with 26%—though of course, it must be pointed out that CU endorsed him last week. Ex-state Rep. Sam Rohrer has 18%, while no one else has more than 4% and Welch just 2%. Still, given Welch's resources, he should be able to make this race more competitive. The question is, will he?
3:57 PM PT: PA-12: Add none other than Minority Whip Steny Hoyer—the second-most powerful Democrat in the House—to those pushing back against Jason Altmire's attacks on Mark Critz. Said Hoyer: "House Democrats stood together and voted ‘present’ on the extreme RSC budget in order to expose its radical policies." House Democrats stood together—but not Jason Altmire. This may seem like inside baseball, but Altmire's managed to get several influential names to publicly take sides against him here.