Buzzfeed looks at the favorable / unfavorable numbers for major party nominees not currently the President since 1996 in CNN polling.
Candidate |
Date |
Favorable |
Unfavorable |
Net
|
Dole |
3/15/96 |
57 |
35 |
+22
|
Gore |
3/9/00 |
53 |
36 |
+17
|
Bush |
3/9/00 |
53 |
34 |
+19
|
Kerry |
3/29/04 |
53 |
36 |
+17
|
McCain |
4/30/08 |
55 |
36 |
+19
|
Obama |
4/30/08 |
56 |
38 |
+18
|
Romney |
3/25/2012 |
37 |
49 |
-12
|
Now the first note is that these numbers are not absolute predictors of the November results. In the two no-incumbent elections provided (2000 and 2008), Bush enjoyed a slight edge over Gore and prevailed, but McCain enjoyed a slight edge over Obama and Palined.
Having said that:
Every other candidate listed has favorables in the range 53 to 57. Romney is at 37; 18 points worse than John McCain.
Every other candidate listed has unfavorables in the range 34 to 38. Romney is at 49; 13 points worse than John McCain.
In the race for those voters who chose a President based on how they feel about him personally, Romney starts out approximately 15% behind John McCain. I estimate that those voters comprise perhaps 20% of the electorate (i.e., half the independents). This is an insurmountable problem for Mitt and there is nothing he can do about it unless a crash development program produces a new OS for the Mittbot very soon. There's no Etch-a-sketch for your personality, Mitt.
This is good news for John McCain but even better news for Barack Obama.
In other brutally bad news for Reversible Mittens, Obama's position among women voters has improved by 13% since November, as the war on caterpillars women has progressed on multiple fronts.
In brutally bad news for the GOP as a whole, the swing is 11% for women over 50, but 18% for women under 50. Blacks; Latinos; gays; women; who will next be driven far away from the GOP fold?