This is a follow up to my Early Alert earlier this week. Conditions have continued to become more favorable for a dangerous outbreak and Dr Forbes of The Weather Channel is predicting at least a small outbreak in the Central Plains/Texas through Sunday, with conditions becoming more favorable by the day.
I quote:
This is a life-threatening situation and you should make sure you have an action plan if tornado watches and warnings are issued for your area.
There remains a question of the timing of the development of the tornadic thunderstorms. It's possible that the worst of the storms won't fire until after sunset and continue into the overnight hours.
Either way, Dr. Forbes is forecasting at least a small tornado outbreak in the outlined region with the potential of some strong (EF2 or greater) tornadoes.
Mid to High Level TorCon Indexes have also been issued. The TorCon is the likelyhood of a tornado to form in your area. Each point value is equivalent to its corresponding percent value. 1 = 10 percent change, 5= 50% chance, and 10=good day to spend somewhere safe.
Friday April 13
OK southwest, west, north-central - 4
KS south-central - 4
Friday Night April 13
OK north - 5
KS southeast, south-central - 5
Saturday April 14
IA northwest - 4
IA southwest - 4 to 5
IA rest - 3 to 4
IL northwest - 3
KS south-central - 7
KS rest of central, east - 5 to 6
MN southwest - 4
MN southeast - 3
MO north - 4
NE southeast - 5
NE northeast - 4 to 5
OK northwest, north-central - 7
OK southwest - 5
SD southeast - 4
TX east panhandle - 5
WI southwest -3
Other areas - less than 2
Saturday Night April 14
IA west - 5
KS south-central, east - 6
OK north, central, west - 6
MN southwest - 5
MO northwest - 4
NE east - 5
TX north-central - 5
Sunday April 15
AR northwest - 4
IA east - 6
IL northwest - 4
KS southeast - 4
MN southeast -6
MN south - 4
MO - 4
OK southeast - 4
TX northeast - 4
It is likely that many of these storms will not move through areas until after nightfall, which makes this particularly dangerous. Take appropriate planning for travel/safety if you live in these areas.