Critiques of Rasmussen polling from the left have become something of a time-honored tradition, particularly here at Daily Kos. Today, though, it is not just a matter of them being on an island. It is a matter of them showing two politicians at equal strength in a state where, perhaps unsurprisingly, no other pollster has found them garnering the same level of support since early February.
More on that later. For now, the numbers:
(GOP) PRIMARY PRESIDENTIAL POLLING (It ... won't ... die!):
NORTH CAROLINA (PPP): Romney 48, Gingrich 30, Paul 12
PRESIDENTIAL GENERAL ELECTION TRIAL HEATS:
NATIONAL (Fox News): Obama tied with Romney (46-46)
NATIONAL (Gallup Tracking): Obama d. Romney (49-43)
NATIONAL (Princeton Survey Research/National Journal): Obama d. Romney (47-39)
NATIONAL (Rasmussen Tracking): Romney d. Obama (49-44)
ARIZONA (Behavior Research Center): Obama d. Romney (42-40)
COLORADO (Purple Strategies): Obama tied with Romney (47-47)
FLORIDA (Purple Strategies): Romney d. Obama (47-45)
NEW MEXICO (PPP): Obama d. Romney (54-40)
OHIO (Purple Strategies): Obama d. Romney (49-44)
VIRGINIA (Purple Strategies): Obama d. Romney (48-46)
VIRGINIA (Rasmussen): Romney d. Obama (45-44)
DOWNBALLOT POLLING:
AZ-SEN (Anzalone Liszt for Carmona): Jeff Flake (R) 43, Richard Carmona (D) 39
FL-16 (Public Opinion Strategies for Buchanan): Rep. Vern Buchanan (R) 58, Keith Fitzgerald (D) 36
FL-16 (SEA Polling for Fitzgerald): Rep. Vern Buchanan (R) 49, Keith Fitzgerald (D) 38
NC-GOV—R (PPP): Pat McCrory 67, Jim Harney 3, Jim Mahan 2, Paul Wright 2, Scott Jones 1, Charles Kenneth Moss 1
TX-SEN (PPP): David Dewhurst (R) 49, Paul Sadler (D) 35; Dewhurst 50, Sean Hubbard (D) 35; Ted Cruz (R) d. Sadler (44-34); Cruz d. Hubbard (43-33); Ted Leppert (R) d. Sadler (44-33); Leppert d. Hubbard (44-34); Craig James (R) d. Sadler (40-36); James d. Hubbard (41-35)
TX-SEN--R (PPP): David Dewhurst 38, Ted Cruz 26, Tom Leppert 8, Craig James 7
WI-GOV--D (Paul Maslin for Falk): Tom Barrett 40, Kathleen Falk 32
A few thoughts, as always, await you after the jump...
- Yup, Rasmussen is on an island again, but not just because they have the president trailing in Virginia. Another recent poll (albeit a rather dubious one by Roanoke College) had Mitt Romney in the lead in the state. I'll even acquit the House of Ras for having Obama outperforming his national margins in Virginia, even though you have to go back to 1948 to find a time when that has happened for a Democrat. After all, a lot of pollsters have seen the same thing, in a state that is rapidly trending blue. Nope, my beef with the House of Ras is that they have the Republican presidential nominee and the presumptive Republican Senate nominee performing at the exact same margins when compared to the Democrat. And George Allen has been outperforming Mitt Romney for this entire year. Indeed, going back into my polling archives, I find that, in the ten polls that had both presidential and Senate components in Virginia, only a Christopher Newport University poll in February joins Rasmussen on that point. For what it's worth, the five polls preceding this one (dating back to early March) had Allen performing, on average, 6.6 points better on the margin than Mitt Romney.
- Speaking of Virginia, a separate and somewhat new pollster puts Obama narrowly ahead there, and also takes a look at three other battleground states. The outfit is known as Purple Strategies, a corporate PR firm (with a polling wing) presumably so named because the two principals in the outfit are a Democrat (Steve McMahon) and a Republican (Alex Castellanos). Their polling wing is also co-operated by a Democrat (Doug Usher) and a Republican (Bruce Haynes). Numbers aside, something in the analysis of the poll by the firm caught me as more than a little hinky. They said that the president's job approval was relatively low (which it is), but that George W. Bush was at 51 percent at this point, and was at 53 percent when he was re-elected. Maybe the firm is relying solely on numbers given to them by Castellanos when he worked for "W", but virtually nobody had George W. Bush at 53 percent job approval on election day 2004. Indeed, it was pretty rare to see him crack 50 percent in the month of October, 2004. An odd declaration to make, to be sure.
- In non-Ras news, I think we are close to legitimately being able to frame the fast-growing state of Arizona as a toss-up. One day removed from a Merrill/Morrison Institute poll showing Mitt Romney clinging to a two-point lead over Barack Obama, a new poll by the Behavior Research Center (an outfit that polls the state often) has Obama out in front, by an identical 42-40 margin. That poll is particularly intriguing, because we have an apples-to-apples comparison to make. BRC polled there in the winter, and found Mitt Romney staked to a six-point lead. So, Obama has made up eight points on the margin to find himself in the lead in this latest poll. On a related note, Democratic Senate candidate Richard Carmona drops an internal poll today showing him down four points to Jeff Flake. Herein lies, incidentally, the classic answer to the question: "Why in the heck do you release an internal poll showing you losing?" The answer, in this case, is because the popular narrative about the campaign is that you are losing by a lot more than your poll suggests. Carmona, with this release, is clearly trying to convey the message that he is still in the game.
- Downballot, we have some polling intrigue to be found, as well. PPP heads into Texas, and like a handful of other pollsters, they see teabagger fave Ted Cruz catching established frontrunner David Dewhurst (the state's lieutenant governor). The lead is down to 12. That is notable, because Dewhurst does markedly better against the pair of little-known Democrats in the mix than does Cruz. It also raises the probability that the GOP primary here will lapse into a runoff, with Dewhurst and Cruz doing battle. Meanwhile, another GOP incumbent drops an internal poll (though this one is a month old) declaring a lead over a potentially difficult challenger. This one is Vern Buchanan, who claims a 22-point edge in the newly-drawn 16th district. Of note--the poll says Mitt Romney leads Barack Obama by nine in the new district. That would be a marked improvement for the Republicans here: John McCain only won the redrawn 16th by three points. Given that most recent statewide polling has Obama doing at least as well as he did in 2008 when paired with the Republicans, that nine-point edge seems a bit curious. And while it ain't worth squat, you have to like the fact that Fitzgerald fired an immediate retaliatory strike: he produced a very dusty (as in February) internal showing Buchanan up by only a 49-38 margin. While that poll is hardly a game-changer, it is nice to see Fitzgerald refuse to allow Buchanan's crew to control the narrative.