If all you read this week were the national polls, you'd draw the conclusion that the presidential election race is a genuine coin flip. President Obama, if he has a lead at all over GOP challenger Mitt Romney, is leading by, at best, a minimal margin.
But if you looked at state polling only over the past few weeks, you'd get a very different impression. By looking at that, as Markos noted earlier this week, Mitt Romney remains a distinct underdog, and is only marginally in a better position than he was several weeks ago.
Meanwhile, down ballot, Republicans have to be concerned about the state of play in the Senate. While dreams of a GOP majority still dance in their heads, with some real justification, recent events have made that dream a bit more difficult to make into a reality.
Add to that the start of a rather busy part of the election season coming up this week, and there is plenty to talk about as we launch into May with this edition of the Weekend Digest.
THE BATTLE FOR THE WHITE HOUSE
THE REPUBLICAN FIELD: Yeah, yeah ... one or two polls were still thrown around this week. But the time is long past due to retire this category of the weekend digest. Mitt Romney is the nominee, despite the best efforts of devotees of one Mr. Ron Paul. So, let us bid a fond farewell to our synopsis of the Republican field, as it is now quite clearly a field of one.
LOOKING AHEAD TO NOVEMBER: As I noted in the intro, there has been quite the divergence in national and statewide polling in recent weeks. By just looking at the national numbers, there has been a marked tightening of the presidential race. But that tightening has been harder to discern when examining state-by-state polling.
Not to go all Karl Rove on the subject, but THE math just seems to be off as it relates to looking at the national polling and the state-by-state polling side-by-side. Can the national battle really be tied or a one-point race if Barack Obama leads in Virginia by eight, leads in North Carolina by four, and leads in Ohio, as well? Where does Mitt Romney get this race to square, especially when you consider the massive leads the president is likely to have in places like California, New York and Illinois? You could argue that Texas offsets a place like New York, but that seems unlikely, seeing how Obama's average margin in New York doubles up Romney's average lead in the Lone Star State.
In short, it doesn't add up. What's more, it's hard to make a plausible case for Mitt Romney, at present, getting to 270 electoral votes. You would have to concede states to him where he is trailing, in some cases by several points. That is an argument that takes you to the ragged edge of credibility.
NATIONAL (Democracy Corps): Obama tied with Romney (47-47)
NATIONAL (Gallup Tracking): Obama d. Romney (46-45)
NATIONAL (PPP for Daily Kos/SEIU): Obama d. Romney (49-44)
NATIONAL (Rasmussen Tracking): Obama d. Romney (47-46)
"CORE FOUR" STATES—FL/NC/OH/VA (Rasmussen): Obama d. Romney (46-43)
NATIONAL (YouGov): Obama d. Romney (48-43)
ARIZONA (Magellan Strategies): Romney d. Obama (52-43)
FLORIDA (Quinnipiac): Romney d. Obama (44-43)
MONTANA (PPP): Romney d. Obama (48-43); Romney d. Obama and Libertarian Gary Johnson (43-41-8)
MONTANA (Rasmussen): Romney d. Obama (51-44)
NEVADA (Rasmussen): Obama d. Romney (52-44)
NORTH CAROLINA (SurveyUSA): Obama d. Romney (47-43)
NORTH DAKOTA (DFM Research for the ND Democratic Party): Romney d. Obama (51-32)
OHIO (Quinnipiac): Obama d. Romney (44-42)
PENNSYLVANIA (Quinnipiac): Obama d. Romney (47-39)
VIRGINIA (PPP): Obama d. Romney (51-43); Obama d. Paul (50-39); Obama d. Gingrich (53-37)
VIRGINIA (Washington Post): Obama d. Romney (51-44)
WEST VIRGINIA (RL Repass and Partners): Romney d. Obama (54-37)
WISCONSIN (Marquette Law School): Obama d. Romney (51-42)
THE BATTLE FOR THE U.S. SENATE
AT THE POLLS: Once again this week, the biggest Senate poll released had nothing to do with November. At the end of the week, we got our first independent poll out of Indiana in a month, and it was a blockbuster. The Howey Politics Indiana/DePauw poll (conducted by the D/R consortium of Garin-Hart-Yang teaming with Bellwether Research) gave challenger Richard Mourdock a stunning double-digit edge over the incumbent, veteran Republican Sen. Dick Lugar. A Lugar defeat would be the first time since 1952 that a six-term incumbent lost in a primary (the last challenger to do so was Al Gore, Sr.).
In other polling news, the Democrats have to be heartened by a Republican poll out of Arizona, as it confirmed an internal poll for their likely nominee, Richard Carmona. The poll showed Carmona down just four points to GOP Rep. Jeff Flake, after most of the early polling in this race gave Flake a sizeable lead over Carmona. Also, we have a serious difference of opinion on the state of play in the battleground race in Montana. It is one thing for PPP and the House of Ras to look at a race differently, but the two pollsters are 15 points apart on their current assessment of the race. PPP has incumbent Democratic Sen. Jon Tester up five, while the House of Ras is claiming a double-digit edge for Republican challenger Denny Rehberg.
AZ-SEN (Magellan Strategies): Jeff Flake (R) 44, Richard Carmona (D) 40
IN-SEN--R (Howey Politics Indiana/DePauw University): Richard Mourdock 48, Sen. Dick Lugar 38
IN-SEN—R (Magellan Research for a PAC supporting Dick Lugar): Sen. Dick Lugar 44, Richard Mourdock 42
MT-SEN (PPP): Sen. Jon Tester (D) 48, Denny Rehberg (R) 43
MT-SEN (Rasmussen): Denny Rehberg (R) 53, Sen. Jon Tester (D) 43
NV-SEN (Rasmussen): Sen. Dean Heller (R) 51, Shelley Berkley (D) 40
ND-SEN (DFM Research for the ND Democratic Party): Heidi Heitkamp (D) 49, Rick Berg (R) 44
VA-SEN (PPP): Tim Kaine (D) 46, George Allen (R) 45
WV-SEN (RL Repass and Partners): Sen. Joe Manchin (D) 74, John Raese (R) 22
ON THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL:
- This coming week, all eyes will be on Indiana, where six-term Republican Sen. Dick Lugar may be days away from forced retirement at the hands of tea-infused primary challenger Richard Mourdock, the state's treasurer. The Roll Call piece linked above, authored by Shira Toeplitz, offers an excellent summation of how we have come to this point, where an incumbent victory would probably be seen as an upset.
- Endorsements are rarely fodder for the Weekend Digest, but when this much batshit crazy makes its way into one endorsement story, it is so richly worth it. Apparently, we've got ourselves a genuine throwdown in Florida, where former GOP presidential anti-Romneys Herman Cain and Michele Bachmann are lining up behind different horses in the Senate primary in the Sunshine State. Bachmann is endorsing the establishment pick (fellow House colleague Connie Mack), while Cain is cuddling up to former appointed Senator George LeMieux.
- Excellent and welcome news this week for convalescing Illinois Senator Mark Kirk (R), who was felled by a stroke in January. Kirk was released from a rehabilitation facility this week, and will now continue his recovery at home with his family.
THE BATTLE FOR THE U.S. HOUSE
AT THE POLLS: It's a quiet polling week on the House horse-race front. The big headline comes from Montana, where the first independent polling on the open seat race to replace Republican Denny Rehberg shows the likely GOP standard-bearer (Steve Daines) sitting on a narrow edge almost completely owed to the naturally reddish terrain in the state.
We also get to be mildly amused at the tit-for-tat polling in Kentucky. In an attempt to change the narrative of the race (which presumes that redistricting made the once-competitive KY-06 safe for Democrat Ben Chandler), his GOP challenger Andy Barr dropped a dusty poll showing a seven-point race. Seeing that, Chandler pulled his own poll out of the dustbin, showing him up over 20 points. If you average them out, you get a result of Chandler leading 52-36. Given that Chandler won in 2010 by less than a point, one gets the feeling that he'd accept a 16-point rout.
KY-06 (Mellman Group for Chandler): Rep. Ben Chandler (D) 54, Andy Barr (R) 30
KY-06 (Public Opinion Strategies for Barr): Rep. Ben Chandler (D) 49, Andy Barr (R) 42
MT-AL (PPP): Steve Daines (R) 33, Kim Gillan (D) 27; Daines 36, Franke Willmer (D) 25
MT-AL—D (PPP): Kim Gillan 21, Diane Smith 13, Franke Willmer 11, Dave Strohmaier 9, Sam Rankin 4, Rob Stutz 1
ON THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL:
- This week brings congressional primaries in Indiana and North Carolina. We'll have a more complete look at the state of play here at Daily Kos Elections, but there may be a legitimate story afoot in Southern Indiana (IN-08. It looks like the DCCC may well be trying to clip freshman Republican Rep. Larry Bucshon in the knees in advance of Tuesday's GOP primary. They are running a phone bank nailing Bucshon on a rather minor bit of profligate spending (use or overuse of the franking privilege). That could be a boon for GOP primary challenger Kristi Risk, who only lost to Bucshon by four points in 2010. The Democrats would love to see Risk win the primary, as her war chest is a fraction of Bucshon's, and she wouldn't have the trappings of incumbency.
- Speaking of the DCCC, they are dropping some legit coin in AZ-08, where the special general election to replace outgoing Rep. Gabby Giffords (D) is little more than a month away. Their ad buys in the Tucson-based district now total just short of a half-million dollars on behalf of Democratic nominee (and former Giffords staffer) Ron Barber. The next move is in the hands of the GOP counterpart to the DCCC (the NRCC), as they weigh whether the race is winnable enough to ante up on behalf of their nominee, 2010 Giffords opponent Jesse Kelly. Kelly, for his part, is trying a little etch-a-sketching of his own, on the issue of Social Security and Medicare.
- New York's quirky rules on "fusion candidates" came to the forefront this week, with two incumbents in danger of losing ballot lines that could prove to be essential in what promise to be close races. Earlier this week, Democrats caught a huge break in the Staten Island-based NY-11, when freshman GOP Rep. Mike Grimm was knocked off the ballot line of the Independence Party for insufficient signatures. In 2010, Independence voters accounted for 3 percent of the vote in the district. However, Democrats might get a taste of sauce for the gander, because Republicans are looking to deny the Working Families nomination to Democratic Rep. Bill Owens in NY-21. WFP votes accounted for 6,000 votes on Owens' behalf in 2010, more than triple his margin of victory in a close election over Republican Matt Doheny, who returns for round #2 in November.
THE BATTLE FOR THE STATE HOUSE
AT THE POLLS: The Marquette Law School poll this week (a poll conducted by Pollster co-founder Charles Franklin) had a clear message: Scott Walker is far from out of the woods. Neither the perception that he had turned the corner, nor his massive fundraising edge has appeared to save his hide. The Marquette poll has him down one among registered voters, and up one among likely voters when paired against Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett. The poll also shows, as others have done, that Barrett is the betting favorite in next week's Democratic primary in the Badger State.
Elsewhere, all eyes are on North Carolina, which also heads to the polls next week. Frustratingly, the amendment seeking to eliminate any prospect for marriage equality (or even civil unions) still looks on track to pass, despite a PPP finding that when informed of the details of the proposal, voters turn rather sour on it. The gubernatorial primaries look like there may be little intrigue, as Republican Pat McCrory is a lock to romp on the GOP side, while Lt. Gov. Walter Dalton has started to pull away as well on the Democratic side. The number to watch on the Democratic side is the number 40. That is the percentage of the vote Dalton will need to tally in order to forgo a runoff, where he would almost certainly be paired with former Rep. Bob Etheridge.
MT-GOV (PPP): Steve Bullock (D) 39, Rick Hill (R) 39; Bullock 41, Ken Miller (R) 35
MT-GOV—R (PPP): Rick Hill 33, Ken Miller 12, Corey Stapleton 7, Neil Livingstone 5, Jim Lynch 4, Jim O'Hara 4, Bob Fanning 1
NC-GOV—D (PPP): Walter Dalton 36, Bob Etheridge 26, Bill Faison 5, Bruce Blackmon 3, Gardenia Henley 3, Gary Dunn 2
NC-GOV—D (SurveyUSA): Walter Dalton 32, Bob Etheridge 23, Gary Dunn 5, Bill Faison 5, Gardenia Henley 3, Bruce Blackmon 2
NC-GOV—R (PPP): Pat McCrory 66, Jim Harney 4, Scott Jones 2, Jim Mahan 2, Paul Wright 2, Charles Kenneth Moss 0
NC-GOV—R (SurveyUSA): Pat McCrory 65, Jim Harney 3, Scott Jones 3, Charles Kenneth Moss 3, Jim Mahan 2, Paul Wright 2
NC—ANTI-MARRIAGE EQUALITY AMENDMENT (PPP): Yes 55, No 41
NC—ANTI-MARRIAGE EQUALITY AMENDMENT (SurveyUSA): Yes 57, No 37
WV-GOV (RL Repass and Partners): Gov. Earl Ray Tomblin (D) 60, Bill Maloney (R) 32
WI-GOV (Marquette Law School): Gov. Scott Walker (R) 48, Tom Barrett (D) 47; Walker 49, Kathleen Falk (D) 42
WI-GOV—D (Marquette Law School): Tom Barrett 38, Kathleen Falk 21, Doug LaFollette 8, Kathleen Vinehout 6
ON THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL:
- Tuesday will mark the primaries for the June Wisconsin recalls, with all the primaries taking place on the Democratic side of the ledger. This week, we got insight into just how extraordinary the closeness of that gubernatorial recall is, given the outsized funding advantage that GOP Gov. Scott Walker has over the Democratic field. He had a 13-to-1 funding edge over both Kathleen Falk and Tom Barrett, and has a 10-to-1 edge in cash on-hand. Despite that, polls still show a toss-up. Walker to date has spent $7.3 million, compared to Falk's $855,000 and Barrett's $357,000.
- It's been over a month, but the special election in the 27th state senate district in New York took some dramatic turns that leave it no closer to resolution. In the wake of an accounting of 220 previously uncounted votes out of Brooklyn, Democrat Lew Fidler reversed a three-vote deficit and moved to an 87-vote lead over Republican David Storobin. Storobin's campaign is still the subject of a fraud allegation, involving the possible courting of absentee ballots. If those ballots are included, a Storobin lead is certainly possible, when all is said and done.
- Lame, but to be expected: in New York, the state's highest appeals court declined to strike down the new state senate gerrymander in the state on the grounds that the GOP-led redistricting effort added a 63rd seat to the chamber. A federal case on the merits of the map is still pending, however.
THE ELECTIONS DIGEST “AIR BALL” OF THE WEEK AWARD
For the first time since its inception, Mitt Romney does not grace the nominee list for this week's Air Ball. While he had his usual array of facepalm-worthy moments, none matched the quartet listed below. We have Scott Brown going typical Republican on us on the issue of health care. Meanwhile, a veteran political hack proves particularly hack-tacular, while a conservative Democrat draws a nod for falling into one of the oldest and stupidest traps in elective politics. And how can you lose with that lifetime Air Ball achievement award winner, Rep. Joe Walsh, back in the mix?
Sen. Scott Brown (R-MA): Sweet home Massachusetts, does anyone in the Republican Party have a more absurd or self-serving rationale for opposing the Obama health care plan than Brown. Brown, whose adult daughter remains on his health care plan courtesy of a provision in the ACA, says that his use of that provision despite his political opposition is consistent because he feels the provisions he likes could be handled at the state level. Perhaps in his Democratic-dominated state of Massachusetts. But nationally? What a bizarre rationale, and it doesn't make his "health care for me, but not for thee" stand any less hypocritical.
Karl Rove (R-Land of "The Math"): For a week, we heard bleating from hand-wringing Republicans like Sen. John McCain about how improper it was for the president to bring up that Osama bin Laden was no longer with us. How dare he try to divide the country by politicizing such an event! Quite telling, then, that the GOP gift for manufactured outrage did not extend to Rove, who is flogging a video where he claims that Barack Obama was claiming all the credit for the demise of OBL, and did not thank the military members who carried out the mission. Quite divisive. Totally inaccurate, as well.
Gov. Earl Ray Tomblin (D-WV): West Virginia is garnering a disproportionate share of the Air Ball entries, as of late. For the third straight week, the Mountain State garners a nomination. This time around, it is the Democratic governor of the state who earns the nod. His contribution? The dumbest common gesture in politics—bailing on the president of your own party in the name of self-preservation. Look, I get that Barack Obama is fairly unloved in West Virginia. But, governor: one, you have a 28-point lead. Two, it ain't like people don't already know that you both are Democrats. Has this move ever gained yardage for the guy trying to establish that "distance?" Honorable mention, by the way, goes to North Carolina Rep. Mike McIntyre, who pulled the same stupid "distance" routine later in the week. Now, McIntyre's rhetoric on the matter was even more outrageous than Tomblin's, but at least McIntyre has the defense of being in a tough spot politically, something Tomblin (who leads his GOP opponent 60-32) cannot really claim.
Rep. Joe Walsh (R-IL): I know he's not gonna be around much longer, what with a 60-plus-percent Obama district about to kick his ass out of the Congress. But ... man, what a loss for the Air Ball when he heads for the exits. This week's offering: did you know that Barack Obama won election to the presidency in 2008 because he's ... um ... y'know ... black?!