Okay the release of the DKE 2012 House Ratings Chart changed this diary half way through so hopefully it isnt too garbled.
This diary is a comparison of my house race ratings with the right leaning commentators Cook, Sabato and Rothenberg with David's new House Ratings as well as Roll Call's and a few other DKE commentators ratings thrown in. I also look at what the DCCC and RCCC are saying with their $$$ and the various offensive (Young Guns, Red 2 Blue) and defensive programs (Patriots and Frontline).
One thing I have to say about Cook, Sabato and Rothenberg is that they have race ratings that are regularly updated and easy to find. I always believed that they seemed a little bit biased against the Democrat (to a believable degree) but I have not seen a Dem leaning counterpart. It is good that DKE are firing up their House Ratings now. The other race ratings that is around is the Roll Call ones, which is a site where I dont think they display much bias (although Rothenberg is a guest writer)
However, the DKE House Ratings is clearly (AT THIS STAGE) is even more conservative with their ratings than the terrible trio.
In the tables below, the presidential race ratings (the column pres. 2012) is those ratings given by SaoMagnifico which seemed as good a rating system that has been produced. The two House ratings that I included were jncca and SaoMagnifico, as Stephen CLE is still working through his, and sawolf's were done pre-redistricting for a few key states. But both were very helpful. I also found Darth Jeff's Golden State Smackdown and atdnext's Nevada summary invaluable.
Conclusions
DKE have clearly chosen a very conservative approach, which should ensure very few bad predictions, and a very careful path forward. I will say that there does not seem to be much weight placed into 2010 being a wave year therefore top tier Dem or no you would think a few seats would revert to type (those not gerrymandered post elections).
However the very Republican leaning ratings of DKE shows that the main race raters are actually not that biased I guess (which was my theory when I started this diary).
DKE is actually far more conservative in ascribing ratings than the Cook, Sabato or Rothenberg. The difference being the DKE clearly are being deliberately conservative to start with, whilst quietly confident that many races will turn blue.
I still think for a few seats NM-01 etc, that the ratings seem unfairly conservative, but I think it is good to have a wide range of opinions out there.
The whole point of this diary is really to clarify in my head how I should be rating each race. At this point a large amount of my competitive races are one rating higher than DKE and the others, but are far more in line with the other DKE commentators.
Thanks David for producing the House Ratings Chart - I will watch the race ratings with interest !
Please don't take anything in this diary negatively - there is no way I could have attempted this without the excellent resources of DKE - the presidential numbers, the unbelievably awesome New York, California and Florida cheat sheets, the redistricting info (although I wish you guys would also produce pdf maps of the google overlays).
I have also tried not to change too many race ratings as a result of this exercise, as I wanted to complete it and see how far I was off. Basically for the Competitive Seats I am generally one rung off in the Dem direction.
COMPETITIVE SEATS
The Verdict: I have 57 seats in this competitive category (although SC-07 . Of the 19 seats that I have as Lean D, DKE is by far the most bearish (at this early stage) of the race raters:
DKE has 5 as Lean D, 10 as Tossup, 3 as Lean R and WI-08 as Likely R.
Roll Call has 6 as Lean Dem, 9 as Tossup and 2 as Lean R. The two NH seats are not rated as of yet.
Rothenberg lists 8 as Lean Dem, 5 as Tossup, WI-08 as Rep Favoured and CA-09 & CA-41 as Dem Favoured (AZ-09 is Safe Dem ?)
Sabato has 13 as Lean D, 4 as Tossup, and 2 as Lean R.
Cook has 7 as Lean D, 8 as Tossup, 3 as Lean R and NY-24 as Likely D.
Of the 19 seats that I have as Tossup, DKE is by far the most bearish (at this early stage) of the race raters:
DKE has 7 as Tossup and 12 as Lean R.
Roll Call has 12 as Tossup and 7 as Lean R.
Rothenberg lists 16 as Tossup, 2 as Lean R, and IN-02 as R Favoured.
Sabato has 10 as Tossup, and 9 as Lean R.
Cook has 13 as Tossup, and 5 as Lean R.
Of the 19 seats that I have as Lean R, they are all far more conservative in their ratings although
DKE has 2 as Tossup, 8 as Lean R and 8 as Likely R & FL-13 as Safe R.
Roll Call has 2 as Tossup, 8 as Lean R and 8 as Likely R & FL-13 as Safe R.
Rothenberg lists 2 as Tossup, 10 as Lean R, 6 as Rep Favoured & FL-13 as Safe R.
Sabato has 11 as Lean R, and 7 as Likely R & FL-13 as Safe R.
Cook has 11 as Lean R, and 8 as Likely R.
LIKELY D SEATS
The Verdict: No major differences with the conservative raters - although Rothenberg tends to favour not pushing races to Likely D from Safe D if possible. For the seats I rate Likely D, DKE rates only 5 Likely D, 11 Lean D and NV-04 a Tossup - I guess David is not swung by the Majority Maker rating by the DCCC ! The other Majority Makers are all Safe D all around I think.
LIKELY R SEATS
The Verdict: No major differences - Rothenberg tends to favour not pushing races to Likely R from Safe R if possible. It seems $300K is the magic number for Red to Blue - All of the seats where a candidate has got $300k out of my Likely R seats, it has gone Red to Blue. DKE is actually more daring here with 2 races (TX-14 and FL-16 as Lean Dem). I think both are good chances and I will be interested to see the next poll in FL-16... I presume the candidates poll after the latest installment in the Buchanan saga.
Note: I have also added in a different column identifying the $ collected so far this cycle be either the Dem in the race, or where there is more than one, the top raising Dem.
SAFE SEATS (Races to Watch) - METHODOLOGY
Okay the next two tables are the Safe D/R seats that are Races to Watch. The Safe D seats are either held by Democrat incumbents or are Open seats that are either new seats or vacated by a Democrat incumbent.
Basically I assign seats to this category when:
- a seat through polling, primary election or redistricting that was previously competitive is now made Safe (eg. the Oregon Seats).
- one of the main race ratings authors list the seat as Likely Dem when really I don't think it has the potential to be competitive (at this point) (eg. NY-17).
- for the Dem candidates who raise good money I tend to add their races into the Safe R (Races to Watch) column, just in case they get any traction.
Because I do a write up on each seat that is Likely D/R, I need to know a seat is potentially competitive before making it Likely D/R.
SAFE REPUBLICAN SEATS (Races to Watch)
The Verdict: Of the 26 seats in this category, Rothenberg lists 2 as R Favoured, Roll Call lists 4 as Likely R., Sabato lists 5 as Likely R, Cook lists 7 as Likely R, while DKE list 14 as Likely R and NY-23 as Lean R.
Note: I have also added in a different column identifying the $ collected so far this cycle be either the Dem in the race, or where there is more than one, the top raising Dem.
Note: There are two races that look like they should be in the Likely R column, but MI-07 is likely to go Safe R for most of the ratings due to Schwartz pulling the pin. NC-11 has a strong fundraiser, but I will need to see some polling to give this a Likely R.
SAFE DEMOCRAT SEATS (Races to Watch)
Okay there are a few Dems here in the Frontline program but Walz and Schrader didn't draw even 2nd rate opponents while Connolly was protected in redistricting.
Ratings Verdict: Of the 16 seats in this category, at first glance DKE is just as bearish as Roll Call and Sabato on the Dems chances. However this is probably just the low bar that David has referred to - getting a Likely D/R rating is not terribly hard, as it just flags a potentially competitive race.
The Rant (NY-25 & NM-01):I refuse to believe this garbage that because Louise Slaughter is somewhat elderly and her seat has been weakened a little bit so yadda yadda yadda the seat is now Lean Dem. Is her 59% Obama seat really going to become competitive in a state with no competitive statewide race ? Has this logic been applied to Fl-13 with Bill Young or any other Republican Race ? I remain unconvinced by the logic that Maggie Brooks is some kind of superstar - this seat according to David Nir's Cheat Sheet is the 13th most blue in the state. I guess Likely Dem is a tolerable rating but I still don't think that is warranted or that it is competitive... although I guess her opponent is formidable enough for Israel to mention to her. But happy to listen to alternative points of view.
As for NM-01 - could this race actually be even potentially competitive ? Not sure why NM-01 is a Red to Blue District. The filing deadline is over and all three potential top tier challengers said thanks but no thanks - that is your race rating right there. Safe Dem. The s@#t bags in that race are not going to even get the McCain vote surely. See no reason to call this Likely D even.