Our status as political junkies, to say nothing of the 24-hour news cycle, has a tendency to desensitize us to major election-related news events. This week was an excellent case-in-point. By the time Indiana Sen. Dick Lugar conceded defeat on Tuesday night, the outcome was such a foregone conclusion that it barely registered on our radar. Amazing, isn't it, that the defeat of a six-term incumbent senator (and by 22 points, no less!) was seen as an "as-expected" result.
Especially when you consider that it had not happened in 62 years.
Indiana was the latest twist in an election year where expectations and assumptions seem to be challenged on a daily basis. Democrats, once thought deeply imperiled in their bid to retain the Senate, now look like they can stitch together a plausible case for continued majority status. Indeed, one can see a sliver of daylight where they could actually pick up seats, though that prospect remains quite remote.
At the top of the ballot, we saw the continuation of a consistent theme since the end of the GOP primary: the daily trackers on an island, Mitt Romney showing some competitiveness in key battlegrounds, but needing a lot of help to craft a coalition of states that will get him to 270.
On top of all that, it is officially on and cracking in Wisconsin, where the breakneck pace of the recall elections heads into a four-week sprint.
All that (and more!) in the Mother's Day edition of the Weekend Digest.
THE BATTLE FOR THE WHITE HOUSE
Anyone seeking clarity from the collection of polls on the presidential contest this week were bound to walk away quite severely pissed off.
Once again, the pair of daily tracking polls (Gallup and Rasmussen) seemed to be surveying a different presidential race than the rest of the polling universe. Only one other national poll this week echoed their findings of a slight lead for Mitt Romney, and that one poll (Angus Reid) had an enormous and obvious flaw. It had Barack Obama winning independent voters ... by 17 points ... and still losing the general election by three points. Simply. Not. Going. To. Happen.
Plus, the daily trackers were also at war with the statewide polling that was conducted this week. The trackers spent the entire week (though tightening right before the weekend) showing Barack Obama running 10-12 points behind his 2008 margins over John McCain. Yet absolutely zero state polls caught that same marked movement to the GOP. Virtually all of them were within a point or two of Barack Obama's 2008 margins of victory (or defeat).
NATIONAL (Angus Reid): Romney d. Obama (49-46)
NATIONAL (Associated Press/GfK): Obama d. Romney (50-42)
NATIONAL (Gallup Tracking): Romney d. Obama (46-45)
NATIONAL (North Star Opinion Research for Resurgent Republic--R): Obama d. Romney (49-42)
NATIONAL (Politico/GWU/Battleground): Romney d. Obama (48-47)
NATIONAL (PPP for Daily Kos/SEIU): Obama d. Romney (48-45)
NATIONAL (Public Religion Research Institute): Obama d. Romney (47-38)
NATIONAL (Rasmussen Tracking): Romney d. Obama (50-43)
NATIONAL (Reuters/Ipsos): Obama d. Romney (49-42)
NATIONAL (TIPP for Investors Business Daily/Christian Science Monitor): Obama d. Romney (46-43)
NATIONAL (YouGov/The Economist): Obama d. Romney (44-43)
NATIONAL 3-WAY TABULATION (Rasmussen): Romney d. Obama and Ron Paul (44-39-13)
"SWING STATES" (Gallup): Obama d. Romney (47-45)
FLORIDA (Suffolk University): Obama d. Romney (46-45)
IOWA (PPP): Obama d. Romney (51-41)
MASSACHUSETTS (Rasmussen): Obama d. Romney (56-35)
NEW JERSEY (Fairleigh Dickinson): Obama d. Romney (50-36)
OHIO (PPP): Obama d. Romney (50-43)
OHIO (Quinnipiac): Obama d. Romney (45-44)
OREGON (SurveyUSA): Obama d. Romney (47-43)
WASHINGTON (SurveyUSA): Obama d. Romney (50-36); Obama d. Romney and Ron Paul (40-27-20)
THE BATTLE FOR THE U.S. SENATE
AT THE POLLS: There was quite a mass of Senate polling this week, but all it did was confirm for us how tight the battle for the balance of power in the Senate is truly going to be.
Simply put, there just aren't that many blowouts on tap this year. Sure, there are a couple (one doubts, for example, that Roger Wicker is concerned about his re-election in Mississippi) of races that are foregone conclusions. But there aren't that many, and that makes trying to get a clear picture on the state of play in the Senate harder than ever.
Recent history has shown us that the toss-up races tend not to break evenly in the Senate. That is to say, one party will scoop up a disproportionate share of those close races. It happened in 1998, and shattered Republican designs on a filibuster-proof Senate. It happened again in 2006 and 2008, and took Democrats from a narrow minority to a near-filibuster proof majority.
If it happens again in 2012, the net outcome could, quite literally, fall anywhere from a Democratic gain of 2-3 seats to a Republican gain of 5-7 seats. Something to ponder as we continue to look at Senate polling throughout the cycle.
MA-SEN (MassInc): Elizabeth Warren (D) 43, Sen. Scott Brown (R) 41
MA-SEN (Rasmussen): Sen. Scott Brown (R) 45, Elizabeth Warren (D) 45
NE-SEN--R (Singularis Group for Fischer): Jon Bruning 30, Deb Fischer 26, Don Stenberg 18
NE-SEN--R (We Ask America): Jon Bruning 42, Deb Fischer 26, Don Stenberg 23, Pat Flynn 4, Sharyn Elander 3, Spencer Zimmerman 2
NJ-SEN (Fairleigh Dickinson): Sen. Robert Menendez (D) 42, Joseph Kyrillos (R) 33
OH-SEN (PPP): Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) 45, Josh Mandel (R) 37
OH-SEN (Quinnipiac): Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) 46, Josh Mandel (R) 40
TX-SEN—R (Dresner Wickers Barber Sanders for a PAC supporting David Dewhurst): David Dewhurst 51, Ted Cruz 16, Tom Leppert 7, Craig James 2
TX-SEN--R (Perception Insight for a pro-Dewhurst SuperPAC): David Dewhurst 57, Ted Cruz 16, Tom Leppert 12, Craig James 4
VA-SEN (Washington Post): Tim Kaine (D) 46, George Allen (R) 46
WI-SEN (Rasmussen): Tommy Thompson (R) 50, Tammy Baldwin (D) 38; Mark Neumann (R) 44, Baldwin 42; Baldwin 45, Jeff Fitzgerald (R) 41
WI-SEN—R (North Star Opinion Research for Eric Hovde): Tommy Thompson 30, Eric Hovde 27, Mark Neumann 23, Jeff Fitzgerald 10
ON THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL:
- The big story this week, eclipsing just about every other political story not about the president and marriage equality, was the forced retirement of veteran Sen. Dick Lugar in Indiana. Lugar wound up not just losing his Republican primary to state Treasurer Richard Mourdock, it wound up being a rout: Mourdock claimed 61 percent of the vote, far exceeding what pollsters and prognosticators had forecast in the race. Lugar's concession included a sharp poke at Mourdock's ideological rigidity, something Mourdock seems intent on preserving (see the Air Ball Awards at the bottom of this Digest). Lugar's defeat turns what had been a near-certain GOP hold in November into more equivocal territory. Democratic Rep. Joe Donnelly won his party's nomination without opposition, and polls have shown him competitive with Mourdock, even as he trailed Lugar by fairly wide margins.
- One of the running themes over the past month in Florida has been the general discontent that the GOP is feeling towards the guy that was supposed to be their ace-in-the-hole versus incumbent Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson. Clearly, Connie Mack fatigue is still an issue, because another second-tier Republican is being talked up as a potential rival for Nelson. This time, it is former seven-term Republican Rep. David Weldon, a class of 1994 veteran who left the House without fanfare in 2008. Weldon, a physician by trade, is expected to make his decision on a late entry into the Senate fracas sometime next week.
- For those interested in a more complete discussion of how the Senate landscape has changed, in favor of the Democrats, over the past couple of months, check out a piece that Markos wrote earlier this week on that very subject.
THE BATTLE FOR THE U.S. HOUSE
AT THE POLLS: One look at the blockquoted text below reveals an obvious point: this was the quietest week of House polling in recent vintage. The sole contribution was an (as yet) unanswered claim by Democrat Patrick Murphy in the newly-drawn FL-18 that he is dead even with freshman Rep. Allen West. The Florida 18th is one of those races that Democrats would love to have in order to reclaim the majority in the House (Daily Kos Elections currently rates it as "Leans Republican").
One would expect that the dearth of House polling will be going away quite soon. There are a ton of House primary elections looming in just one month, with elections coming in a half-dozen major states looming on June 5th. Plus, as more primaries conclude, expect to see more narrative setting by campaigns through the release of internal polling data, as Murphy has done in this case.
FL-18 (Frederick Polls for Murphy): Patrick Murphy (D) 45, Rep. Allen West (R) 45
ON THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL:
- Tuesday's elections were not solely about the fate of Dick Lugar. Voters also soldified November's candidates for the House in three states: Indiana, North Carolina and West Virginia. While no incumbents were defeated in the process, a couple underperformed against underfunded opposition (Republicans Larry Bucshon in Indiana plus Renee Ellmers and Howard Coble in North Carolina, in particular). Democrats managed to avoid any runoff elections in North Carolina, while Republicans failed to have a candidate clear the 40 percent threshold in three districts: the two open-seat contests in NC-09 (Myrick) and NC-11 (Shuler), plus NC-08, where the winner will challenge sophomore Democratic Rep. Larry Kissell. If the North Carolina GOP hadn't already masterfully stacked the redistricting deck, those runoffs could prove to be critical for November: After all, the remaining Republicans will have to duel for another seven weeks before the late June runoff elections. However, the only beneficiary there might be Kissell, who can conserve resources while he awaits his opponent. In Indiana, the only surprise was a rather underwhelming performance for Democratic hopeful Brendan Mullen in IN-02, where he only narrowly beat (54-46) an unknown and underfunded candidate. In IN-05, Susan Brooks denied a return to Congress by one-time Republican Rep. David McIntosh, by just a single point. Meanwhile, in West Virginia, there were no surprises, unless you count Shelley Capito's total drubbing of state delegate Jonathan Miller (he lost by over 70 points) to be a surprise. Evidently, Miller said that God had told him to run, though the Almighty probably forgot to tell him about the getting beat 83-11 part.
- One red-leaning district in the South may be getting more competitive, but not necessarily for the traditional campaign reasons. The race in FL-16 might be getting hotter because three-term Rep. Vern Buchanan (R) seems to have landed himself in some scalding political hot water. This week, a unanimous panel of the House Ethics Committee voted to expand their ongoing investigation into whether Buchanan tried to unduly influence a witness in an FEC investigation into the nexus of his business dealings and campaign finance. He is also in some business-related ethical troubles over allegations of fraud at the car dealerships he owns. Democrats are running state legislator Keith Fitzgerald in the district, and internal polls for both candidates earlier in the cycle gave Buchanan a double-digit lead in this Republican district.
- Finally, election junkies can at long last rejoice! Earlier in the week, Daily Kos Elections offered up their first set of race ratings for the House for the 2012 election cycle. Check them out, and tell us whether you agree or disagree with where we feel the state of play is for November, and whether there are legitimate Democratic prospects for reclaiming the chamber.
THE BATTLE FOR THE STATE HOUSE
AT THE POLLS: It was a pretty quiet week downballot, as well, as it related to polling data. Democrats have to be heartened by another poll confirming that Jay Inslee has made up considerable ground in Washington, and is once again at parity with GOP frontrunner Rob McKenna.
Meanwhile, Rasmussen decided to be the first pollster post-primary to look at the Wisconsin recall. It is the first time they had polled the recall properly, using the two candidates in the field rather than a simple binary choice of whether or not respondents supported the recall. They had Walker leading by five points, which is slightly more optimistic than other recent polls in the Badger State. But the same survey also had Tommy Thompson up double-digits in the Senate race, which no one has had in recent polling. Thus, Barrett fans would not be out of line to suggest that the entire sample in Wisconsin leans a bit to the right.
Quinnipiac also looked ahead to the 2013 mayoral election in New York City, which was included here for our political junkies in the Big Apple.
(2013) NYC-Mayor (Quinnipiac): Christine Quinn (D) 48, Ray Kelly (R) 33; Bill DeBlasio (D) 46, Kelly 34; William Thompson (D) 46, Kelly 34
WA-GOV (SurveyUSA): Rob McKenna (R) 40, Jay Inslee (D) 38
WI-GOV (Rasmussen): Gov. Scott Walker (R) 50, Tom Barrett (D) 45
ON THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL:
- On Tuesday, voters went to the polls in Wisconsin, and set the field for next month's recall elections. As expected, Milwaukee Mayor (and 2010 gubernatorial nominee) Tom Barrett swept to victory on the Democratic side for governor, winning by a slightly larger-than-expected 24 point margin over former Dane County Executive Kathleen Falk. Democratic votes in the recall primaries were several thousand votes higher than on the Republican side, which could alternately been seen as heartening (since it was an open primary ballot) or alarming (because, outside of a halfhearted attempt to game the other primaries, there was no reason for Republicans to show up). Speaking of that attempt to game the other primaries, the GOP efforts to run fake Democrats in those Democratic primaries wound up being all for naught, as Mahlon Mitchell easily won the Democratic nomination for Lt. Governor, and all four Democratic candidates for the state senate notched easy wins over their respective Democratic impersonators.
- Jay Inslee might have clawed his way back to even money in the gubernatorial election in Washington, but newly released fundraising numbers in the state might be a reason to temper enthusiasm. In the first month that his opponent (state attorney general Rob McKenna) has been eligible to raise cash, he swamped Inslee by a nearly three-to-two margin. Democrats will claim (rightly) that McKenna's inability to fundraise during the legislative session meant that he had a lot of low-hanging fruit to pick once the session ended. However, Republicans could (also rightly) counter that McKenna also had eleven fewer days to fundraise than Inslee, since the legislative session in the Evergreen State did not conclude until partway through the month of April.
- When beloved Daily Kos community member Adam Bonin thinks an election story is worth writing about, it's worth our time. He chimed in on Wednesday with a report from Ocean City, New Jersey. By a 69-31 margin, voters in this resort and tourist community elected to stay "dry." As in, alcohol-free in its public establishments. The law before the voters was an incremental measure, seeking to allow people to bring their own alcoholic libations to restaurants. It was soundly rejected, securing nearly a century-and-a-half of nonalcoholic civic policy.
THE ELECTIONS DIGEST “AIR BALL” OF THE WEEK AWARD
Mitt Romney's absence from the "Air Ball" list of nominees was short-lived, as it happens. How could it be any other way? But, the Republican nominee for president is by no means a lock for "Air Ball" glory.
Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-MN): What the heck did the fine people of Switzerland ever do to deserve this?!
The Log Cabin Republicans: I want to cut these folks some slack. I mean, honestly, having to go through life as a Republican and a gay American automatically calls sound judgment into question, doesn't it? But to respond to the president's historic announcement on Wednesday with (a) bitching that it was "too soon" after the North Carolina defeat (a defeat applauded by ... wait for it ... Mitt Romney) and (b) claiming he was no hero to gay rights like Dick Cheney. Because, as anyone who knows anything knows, the rights of gay Americans simply flourished under the Bush-Cheney administration.
Senate nominee Richard Mourdock (R-IN): For those expecting some Etch-A-Sketching from Mourdock now that he has dislodged Sen. Dick Lugar from the U.S. Senate and earned a slot on the November ballot, fear not. Check out this quote, which no doubt created starbursts in the eyes of the folks at Fox News when he delivered it.
“I have a mindset that says bipartisanship ought to consist of Democrats coming to the Republican point of view."
Someone apparently forgot to tell Mourdock the time-honored tradition of tacking to the center once you get to the general election. I know Dick Lugar only got 39 percent of the GOP primary vote on Tuesday, but you do legitimately have to wonder what ratio of those Lugar voters will flirt with the idea of voting for Joe Donnelly in November.
Former Gov. Mitt Romney (R-MA): The whole bullying thing has earned a ton of attention this week, but youthful idiocy (however revealing of character) doesn't qualify as a 2012 campaign airball. Making a claim so fallacious and absurd that the president of the United States actually laughs at you, on the other hand ...
Mitt Romney, savior of the auto industry! All hail!