On Wednesday I returned from about a month of research in Egypt, my first trip back since having been evacuated early last February at the height of the Egyptian Revolution. I've followed developments in Egypt closely over the last year through English- and Arabic-language resources, supplemented by updates from both Egyptian and non-Egyptian friends and colleagues who remained in-country, but there is no substitute for direct experience and assessment of the mood of the body politic both within and outside of Cairo.
(Protest-art mural on Mohammed Mahmoud St., Cairo)
Some observations after the whazzit...
The most significant change over the last year, to my mind, is the willingness with which most Egyptians whom I encountered spoke openly and critically about politics. In previous years (I've been working in Egypt off-and-on since 1997) discussion of politics was muted and behind closed doors, if it occurred at all. This is certainly a positive development.
What is being said, however, is overwhelmingly pessimistic. The reactive ad hoc political machinations under the stewardship of the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) over the past year has soured many of the initially positive attitudes toward the potential for substantive social and political change and the emergence of democratizing institutions. No matter the outcome of the upcoming presidential elections, a majority of those with whom I spoke envision a looming violent confrontation between SCAF and the Muslim Brotherhood.
There has also been a fair degree of historical revision with respect to Hosni Mubarak and his legacy. Several times I was told that Mubarak himself was not a bad man, but that his senescence had opened the door for less noble courtiers to manipulate him. This is in sharp contrast to the anger directed against Mubarak last year and the (correct, imo) perception of his personal culpability. There were moments when I detected a kind of wistfulness for pre-revolutionary days, an attitude made explicit by one very well-educated Cairene who declaimed that what Egypt requires is not "democracy," with all uncertainties, but rather the stability afforded by a benevolent dictatorship.
(Protest-art mural on Mohammed Mahmoud St., Cairo)
In general, those with whom I discussed politics felt that the opportunity for substantive change driven by the desires of the Egyptian citizenry has passed. Whatever hope emerged in the wake of Mubarak's ouster is now much diminished, if not utterly extinguished. As the above image so dramatically represents, the supposedly democratic political process of parliamentary and presidential elections is viewed as a charade directed by SCAF and featuring politicians whose hands (well, feet) are soaked with the blood of the revolution.
While Midan Tahrir is now little more than a few tents and surrounding vendors selling tourist schlock, it is not hard to imagine the square reemerging as the locus for popular dissent after the upcoming presidential elections, particularly if (as many anticipate) SCAF is seen to manipulate the results.
Tensions are running high...