Not only am I not an economist, but I don't really understand economists.
However, I've had -- for some time now -- the feeling that (i) a lot of the traditional economic indicators (such as GDP) are increasingly distorted/worthless and (ii) what I read about France in the UK/US press contains a lot of conscious/unconscious bias/propagandist bullshit.
When I read gloom & doom articles about France in the US/UK press, they simply bear little relevance to my experience on the ground here.
I tried to figure out why, and this is what I've come up with. Maybe I'm wrong, I don't know. You tell me.
[more below fold]
1) French domestic/household consumption doesn't seem to me to have been hugely/negatively impacted by la crise; I also don't see the sharp increase in pauperization in France that is reported elsewhere, especially in the US. Maybe the French weren't doing as great as others before, but they don't seem to be much worse off now than they were, or not by a huge difference.
2) French demographics is on the rise, unlike that of most other European countries, which must be a good thing, surely. And it's not due to immigration either, but old fashioned baby-making.
3) For all the complaints about the weight of the French government on the economy, it sure helps as an invisible hand protecting its inhabitants from the worst consequences of the crise and it also maintains its traditional policy of investing in infrastructure, public projects, etc. Yes, there is waste, but there's a lot of stabilizing effect too.
4) The French people are like ants, not grasshoppers. People here still save and there's little or no mortgage, credit card, or student loan debt crisis. On top of that, when they borrow, it's fixed rates, not weirdo variable rates like in the US and UK. And when they save, it's not in exotic, risky instruments but reliable risk-free, regulated savings account.
5) I suppose the French are less industrialized compared to their neighbors; they don't seem to rely as much on exports (although I'm sure they'd like to export more), and they also consume of a lot of what they make/produce, so again, that acts as a buffer. Also, they don't seem to have have "bubbles" -- so, yes, they're not as spiffy as Germany or the UK, but conversely, they seem to be a lot safer. Forget about GDP growth, look at the soundness & balance of the economy.
Maybe the France of the Bankers and the Oligarchs is having the same problem as the rest of Europe, but I don't see the France at ground level going through the same trauma as my British, Spanish and American friends.
Thanks for listening.