This is a purely hypothetical scenario. While we just finished 2010 redistricting, it’s never too early to think ahead based on current trends to how things might look in 2020. This diary makes guesses about population trends in Minnesota and assumes Democrats will have full control of redistricting after the 2020 elections. I think I’m fairly accurate with the population projections but it’s impossible to tell who will control redistricting in 2020.
Minnesota just barely made the cut to get an 8th seat during the latest census round. I don’t think anything is going to change in the future, and I’m guessing it will lose a seat after 2020. The suburbs surrounding the Twin Cities are booming in population while the population in Minneapolis actually appears to be holding steady. On the other hand, Ramsey County is losing population, as is the rest of the entire state (except Rochester and the surrounding area, which is also increasing in population). So I have created this map based on a few assumptions:
1) Only 7 CDs
2) The suburban counties will drive population growth. Wright, Carver, and Scott counties will become more Republican. Dakota and Washington counties will become more Democratic.
3) Olmsted County becomes more Democratic.
4) I disregard incumbents and try to maximize opportunities for Democrats without drawing a dummymander.
5) I tried to think about population trends and guestimate where some of the gains and losses will be. As such, for each CD, it’s actually over or under-populated depending on how I think the trend will be. If a CD today is underpopulated, that’s because I expect by 2020 more people will live in the CD. If a CD today is over-populated, that’s because the area is currently losing population and probably will need more people in 2020.
6) Again, it’s impossible to predict the future and who knows where we’ll be in 2020.
Here's the whole state:
MN-Statewide
1st CD (Blue): Minneapolis south of I-394, Edina, Richfield, Bloomington, Minnetonka, Eden Prairie, Chanhassan, Chaska
60.3% Dem Avg
62.5% Obama
Population trend: Growing, so this district is under-populated by 70k
1st CD
As red as Carver county is, southern Minneapolis has far more people and is more Democratic than Carver is Republican. I suspect perhaps this district might be a bit more red in 2020 than it is now since more people are moving out of Minneapolis (but not in huge waves like in St Paul) and the western lakes are attracting a lot of rich migrants. If Erik Paulsen was still around in 2020, he’d be doomed here.
Safe Dem
2nd CD (Green): Minneapolis north of I-394, Brooklyn Center, Plymouth, Maple Grove, Rogers, Blaine
58.2% Dem Avg
59.4% Obama
Population trend: Growing, so this district is under-populated by 60k
2nd CD
The Democrats can really strengthen their hand by splitting each of the Twin Cities. Red suburbs in Western Hennepin and really red areas of Anoka County are completely drowned out by northern Minneapolis and Brooklyn Center. As with the 1st CD, this might trend red over time but I think a moderate Democrat can do well here. Keith Ellison may be too liberal but Teri Bonoff seems like a good fit.
Likely Dem
3rd CD (Purple): Most of Ramsey County, most of Washington County, Chisago County, and the remainder of Anoka County.
54.5% Dem Avg
54.9% Obama
Population Trend: Ramsey is really shrinking so this is over-populated by 90k
3rd CD
Betty McCollum will hate this district, but so will Michelle Bachmann. It’s fairly ambitious and I’m not even sure Democrats would do this since it splits St. Paul. It’s very hard for me to tell where this district might trend….Washington County is getting bluer, while blue Ramsey County loses population. Red Chisago County will gain population, as will Anoka. I kept the bluer parts of Anoka (Coon Rapids) in this district. While McCollum would hate the district’s rightward trend compared to now, she’s a bit to the right of her current district anyway. Given the average Dem performance, I think Team Blue can hold on here…it all depends how quickly Chisago continues to grow versus the bluer parts of the district. Bachmann is not the type of Republican who could hold this.
Safe Dem between McCollum and Bachmann
Safe Dem between generic D and Bachmann
Likely Dem between McCollum and generic R
Lean Dem between generic D and generic R
4th CD (Red): Dakota (except Northfield) and Scott Counties, St. Paul Park and Cottage Grove in Washington County, Southwestern Saint Paul south of I-94
52.7% Dem Avg
53.9% Obama
Population Trend: Growing, so this is under-populated by 90k
4th CD
John Kline is likely screwed here today, but with Dakota County getting bluer, I actually think this district becomes more blue over time. Scott County is very red and could also gain suburban Republicans, but I think they’ll be drowned out by Dakota. I throw in bluish Cottage Grove and southwest St Paul to make sure John Kline is finished and this stays Dem.
Toss-Up/Tilt D with John Kline
Lean D without John Kline
5th CD (Yellow): Southern/Southeastern Minnesota
51.9% Dem Avg
51.4% Obama
Population Trend: Growing, so this is under-populated by 40k
5th CD
Given this district is bluer than Tim Walz’s current district, and Olmsted County is getting bluer each year, I think he’ll be fine here. Having Mankato (where he lives) and Northfield in here help Walz. I go as far west as Worthington/Noble County since there’s a booming Hispanic population there, but keep out Pipestone and Rock Counties, which are red and should stay together given they are the only counties in the state with the Sioux Falls media network. Given he survived 2010, Tim Walz has to be happy with this district.
Safe D with Walz
Lean D without Walz
6th CD (Teal): Iron Range, Saint Cloud
54.9% Dem Avg
52.2% Obama
Population Trend: Shrinking, so this is over-populated by 70k
6th CD
This district is bluer than the new 8th CD. I’m fairly sure Chip Cravaack will lose this year, or certainly before 2020. But this district is trending red. I tried to include all the blue I could without going too crazy, though I do include Isanti County here (I haven’t seen anyone propose separating Isanti from Chisago County, which might be a smart idea if they both trend red over time). This district includes St. Cloud but it includes all the red around it, from all of Benton, Stearns, and Sherburne Counties. The really red stuff is drowned out by the Iron Range and some of the counties in the northwest that have Reservations within them. I do think this will be a rough go as the trend is against Dems here.
Lean D for now, Toss-Up later down the line
7th CD (Gray): Western Minnesota and Wright County
46.6% Dem Avg
45.2% Obama
Population Trend: Shrinking a lot, so this is over-populated by 95k
Well, few people here like Collin Petersen although I strongly suspect this district will go red when he retires. He will probably retire before 2020, and even if he doesn’t, all these Republicans have to go somewhere so why not give them to the Dem who attracts the most Republicans. If he’s still around in 2020, he might put up a good fight but I’m sure we have no chance here. Gave Bemidji and some northwestern Reservations to the 6th CD and this CD doesn’t have St. Cloud. So it’s a mishmash of farmland, and Wright County. Wright is gaining some serious population and is getting redder every day, but it still has a very rural feel to it even today. This district will trend red over time.
Likely R with Petersen
Safe R without Petersen