Let me summarize…
Unless, in the next 5 months, President Obama starts a major ground war with Iran, China, North Korea, or Syria; gas prices reach $7 a gallon; unemployment reaches 9%; or he’s caught, on camera, strangling white children in wheelchairs, he is not going to lose New Mexico, Wisconsin, Nevada, Pennsylvania, or Minnesota in the 2012 General Election. Please take those five states out of your “toss-up” category right now and don’t put them back no matter what the latest Rasmussen poll says.
With that said, the outcome of the Electoral College can now be simplified thusly:
President Obama currently has a virtual certainty of winning the 22 bluest states (plus D.C.) for a total of 263 E.C. votes. He then has to win one, and only one, of any of the following eight states to reach 270, or more, E.C. votes:
1. Ohio
2. Colorado
3. Virginia
4. Florida
5. North Carolina
6. Missouri
7. Indiana
8. Arizona
Mitt Romney must win all 8 of these states. If he loses even one, he loses the election.
The odds of flipping a coin and having it come up tails 8 times in a row is 0.039%. The odds of getting heads at least once is 99.61%.
Obviously, this factual narrative does not generate a lot of tension and drama, so the “news” media will, for the next 5 months, continue to highlight national polls that show a close race in the national popular vote, as well as any outlying state poll that shows a possibility of Mitt Romney being competitive in one of the 22 “safe” Democratic states. These are the only two statistics that help to create the illusion that Mitt Romney has more than a 1% chance of winning the election.
Thank you.