PPP has released their final poll of the Wisconsin recall, which shows Governor Scott Walker leading Democratic challenger Tom Barrett by a margin of 50-47.
But the sole reason for Walker's lead is the enthusiasm gap: Republicans are far more enthusiastic about voting to keep the Governor in office than Democrats are about voting him out. Barrett leads 48-46 among independent voters; by 52-46 among women; and by 58-36 among minorities.
PPP's sample, in the 2008 Presidential race, would have voted for Barack Obama by 7 points... but Obama carried Wisconsin by 14 points. If voter turnout for the recall matches the 2008 electorate, Barrett will win.
I think the message is clear: Barrett wins if people turn out to vote for him. If they don't, Scott Walker will win.