Latest:
20.11 Alexis Tsipras, leader of Syriza, has telephoned Antonis Samaras, leader of New Democracy leader, to congratulate him on his victory. Unofficial and official polls suggest that New Democracy will take the lead, and Tsipras has conceded.
Latest results show New Democracy still leading Syriza 30% - 26%
Final update: With 88% of the vote tallied, ND 30%, Syriza 27%.
Final result: With 99% in, ND 29.7%, Syriza 26.9%, Pasok 12.3%
Statement from New Democracy leader Samaras:
The Greek people have voted today for the European direction of the country and for us to remain in the euro, and it voted for those policies which will bring jobs... we will not have new adventures. We will not doubt the position of Greece in Europe. We will not be reigned by fear, and espcially the sacrifices the Greek people have made will be realised significantly.
We do invite all of those political parties that do take into acocunt all of these opbjectoves to participate in a colaition of national unity. we do not have any time to waste.. the country myst be governed.
----- Original diary:
Polls just closed a few minutes ago in Greece, and just-released exit polling has shown that New Democracy, a conservative party, and Syriza, the main anti-austerity leftist party, are neck and neck -- each with between 27% and 30% of the vote.
Update: Final exit polling results give the conservative party, New Democracy, a slight lead, but it's only 1% or so, well within the margin of error for the exit poll. So it could be quite a while before the winner is really determined.
Update: Or maybe not:
18.54 Some official figures are starting to emerge. With 15pc of the votes counted, New Democracy has 31.1pc of the votes, while Syriza has 25.4pc.
Update: And then again...
But it should be noted that these are rural votes, and the electorate in Athens will bring the average back towards the left.
Update: With 32% reporting, ND leads Syriza 31% - 26%. Seems like a large margin to overcome for Syriza but who knows?
Update:
First official projection Greek Interior Ministry: ND 29.5 128 seats Syr 27.1 72 seats Pasok 12.3 33 seats
This is apparently based on
a sampling of actual ballots from 3000 polling places, according to the New York Times.
Update: With 40% in, the gap has closed a tad. It's now 30% - 26%. Results are just trickling in though.
Winning is absolutely crucial, because the party with the plurality of votes gets an extra fifty seats in the Greek Parliament, probably enough to put together some sort of coalition this time around. (In the previous election several weeks ago, no party got more than 20% of the vote, and none of the leading parties was able to put together a coalition). With the 50-seat bonus, a party would need to get about 37% of the vote to have a majority without forming a coalition, but that seems extremely unlikely now given the exit polling.
Here is the full exit poll:
First exit poll results via Mega TV:
New Democracy - 27.5-30.5%,
Syriza - 27-30%,
Pasok - 10-12%,
Independent Greeks - 6-7.5%,
Golden Dawn - 6-7.5%,
Democratic Left - 5.5-6.5%,
Communists - 5-6%.
The first actual results are not due for another hour and half or so.
If New Democracy wins, Greece is likely to stay in the Euro Zone and continue on with austerity policies that are currently producing 23% unemployment and 53% youth unemployment...
Young Greeks have been hardest hit by the country's protracted economic slump. In the 15-24 age group the jobless rate was 52.7 percent, the data showed, up from 39.6 percent in the same period a year ago.
If Syriza wins, it is fair to say that no one knows what will happen. Syriza has vowed to renegotiate bailout terms that were agreed to some months ago by the previous Greek government and the rest of the Euro Zone. That may or may not lead to Greek withdrawl from the Euro Zone, which could mean, at least in the short term, an even worse economic situation for the Greek people.
Pretty much, for the Greek people, heads I lose, tails no one wins.
9:34 AM PT: 17.34 Channel 4's Faisal Islam tweets that the late rush of voters could have worked in Syriza's favour:
faisalislam Faisal Islam
Skai TV show 30pc of late deciders falling for Tsipras versus 25pc for Samaras
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/...
9:40 AM PT:
tim_weber Tim Weber
Greece votes for yet more stalemate. Maybe Greek politicians need to dissolve the people & vote in a new electorate (apols to Brecht)
9:43 AM PT: By the way, the French are also conducting an election today. It's for the lower house of their national legislature, and is the 2nd and final round of voting. This will determine if the new French President will have a Parliament with a majority of his own party, the Socialists, or not. (The upper House already has a Socialist majority).
9:52 AM PT:
Spyros Gkelis, a university lecturer in Greece, tweets: Syriza is at 30% from 4.5%. Neo-Nazis are at 7% from 0.5%. Greece is not the same country anymore.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/...
9:54 AM PT:
The exit poll we already have from Greece is based on just 80pc of voters. Very soon we'll have data from the remaining fifth, which will help clear up the final result.
10:24 AM PT: New York Times analysis
“There’s the party of fear and the party of despair,” said Nikos Xydakis, a political analyst and an editor at the newspaper Kathimerini. “The despairing ones vote for Syriza and they hope maybe they can change something. The people of the middle class that still have something to lose, some deposits or their houses or they still have a job, they are afraid and maybe they will got to New Democracy.”
“The problem,” Mr. Xydakis said, is that New Democracy “is very corrupt and very weak. They don’t have the moral and the political gravitas” to lead.
“Nobody wants to step out from the euro zone because they know there will be more pain and more suffering in this transition period,” Mr. Xydakis said. “But also people cannot afford austerity, it has ruined the economy.”
10:31 AM PT:
Meanwhile, in France, AFP reports that the Socialists have won an absolute parliamentary majority. More on that soon.
10:32 AM PT:
1829: There are reports that the first official results will be delayed. We had been looking at 19:30 BST originally.
1823: Nick Malkoutzis, deputy editor of Greece's daily English-language newspaper Kathimerini tweets: In 2000, exit polls gave New Democracy a 0.5% lead but Pasok won by 1%, cutting ND celebrations short. Nobody cheering at moment
10:36 AM PT:
Skai TV in Greece is predicting that Syriza will edge just ahead to take 28pc of votes, while New Democracy will trail slightly with 27.5pc. But the winning party gets 50 bonus seats, so Syriza would end up with 124 and New Democracy just 73.
10:39 AM PT: And conflicting predictions via the BBC!
837: Mark Lowen, BBC Athens correspondent, reports that, on the basis of a new exit poll, it appears New Democracy is edging ahead. That's the main pro-bailout party, of course.
1834: Antenna TV estimates that New Democracy will win by more than 1 percentage point, Kathimerini reports.
10:43 AM PT: So the full exit poll predicts New Democracy by a slim margin.
18.37 Despite that last update, the full, unofficial exit polls are in, and we could be heading for a very narrow New Democracy win in Greece.
New Democracy has between 28.6pc and 30pc, and radical left group Syriza has between 27.5pc and 28.4pc.
10:48 AM PT:
Greek state TV estimates that on those exit numbers New Democracy and Pasok could form a coalition. The 300 seats would be distributed thus:
New Democracy 127 (including the bonus 50 for winning), Syriza 72, Pasok 32, Independent Greeks 21, Golden Dawn 19, Democratic Left 16, Communist Party of Greece 13.
11:16 AM PT:
Ioanna Voudouri tweets: Beyond any pro or against euro discussion, the potential rise of Golden Dawn is the scariest aspect of the electoral result
11:35 AM PT: Holy Coalition Confusion, Zeus!
Reports suggest that Pasok will be unwilling to join a coalition that doesn't involve Syriza.
12:00 PM PT: From the comments:
Official results as they are coming in.
12:07 PM PT:
20.04 Syriza has said that the result is a victory of sorts as it will allow the party to play the rolw of a strong opposition. But it has also ruled out the prospect of joining a coalition (it was itself a coalition until a few weeks ago, when it registered as a single party to be eligible for the 50-seat bonus should it win the election). Pasok has already said that it also won't join a coalition unless Syriza is involved. So a lengthy period of talks and negotiation looks set to start.