This has been my gut instinct prediction since the hearings. I believe in my first instincts.
I have valid reasons for believing.
1. A well-respected progressive Nancy Pelosi has very confidently put out 6-3. I really think she did not get specific for no reason. I would have expected a more concerning statement if it looked like all was lost. I know there are some who will point to some of her wrong statements such as we will hold the house and scott brown will not win. I understand your legitimate points. However, I think Nancy Pelosi is right most of the time. I think she is sincere most of the time.
http://thehill.com/...
Here are my reasons why she is likely thinking the same way I am thinking.
2. Roberts is not THAT batshit crazy. He is very corporatist in fact. Insurance Companies love the ACA and the mandate. The mandate going away will devastate the insurance companies. The insurance companies have powerful influence on people. They can likely get him to vote in favor. Furthermore, Roberts has broken with the conservatives before. He can do so again. He challenged the conservative lawyer quite a bit on day two. Fox news pundits have stated that Roberts may not side with conservatives. Roberts and Kennedy said on Day 2 that they are worried about the insurance companies.
3. A very right wing justice upheld the ACA when everyone thought the worst. Donald Trump has said to teabaggers even "don't get too hasty". Mitch Mcconell has signaled the court might side with the govt. He has said "if the court upholds aca, I will strongly disagree but respect the court".
Even then, the powerful 3rd party lawyer was so effective in his severability case. Even Scalia has been quoted to being open to keeping parts of the affordable care act.
I really don't think all is lost. I really don't need to pull in the "oh no it is the end of the world. We are doomed forever."
The debt ceiling was raised when everyone was saying it was not going to be raised.