The courtroom of the Supreme Court (Franz Jantzen)
The Supreme Court will conclude its business this week, saving the most looked-for ruling, on the Affordable Care Act, for Thursday. Adam Bonin provided a
succinct overview of what the Court will decide in his essay on Sunday.
In a nutshell, the Court will determine whether the government can be sued yet on the mandate, since the Anti-Injunction Act of 1867 says that you have to wait to sue the government until you're actually taxed. Since the mandate doesn't go into effect for two more years, do the parties have standing to sue? This is a bit of a red herring, and with the Court hearing arguments on three separate ACA cases, they'll not be likely to throw out consideration of the mandate on this. That's the next big question: Is the mandate constitutional? Then, if they rule it is not, how much else in the law falls. Finally, and this is kind of the big sleeper part of the whole shebang, is whether the federal government is unconstitutionally coercing the states in expanding Medicaid.
It's all tea leaf reading at the moment, but the summary reversal of the Montana Supreme Court decision on Citizens United is an indication of just how feisty the Supreme Court's five conservative justices are feeling at the moment, with a refusal to even hear arguments from Montana.
As Adam says, "The Court's five conservatives are full of surprises." Expect almost anything, but don't expect it the ruling to necessarily be what you were taught to believe the Supreme Court was all about.