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poll comparison of Obama v Romney on a varienty of specific issues
Pew Research Center for the People and the Press
Obama v Romney, Pew data
Amidst the Sturm und Drang of Mitt Romney's Bain problem, a new Pew poll puts into perspective the peculiar problem of Romney's "stuck in second" campaign.
Despite the stagnant economy and broad dissatisfaction with national conditions, Barack Obama holds a significant lead over Mitt Romney. Currently, Obama is favored by a 50% to 43% margin among registered voters nationwide. Obama has led by at least a slim margin in every poll this year, and there is no clear trend in either candidate’s support since Romney wrapped up the GOP nomination.

The latest national survey by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, conducted June 28-July 9, 2012 among 2,973 adults, including 2,373 registered voters, finds that Romney has not seized the advantage as the candidate best able to improve the economy. In fact, he has lost ground on this issue over the past month...

 Currently, Obama holds a slim 51% to 44% margin among voters in 12 of the most competitive states. This is identical to the balance of support in these states in June.

July is when narrative starts to be cemented. Note that Obama has a lead on virtually every issue except the deficit and jobs, and that includes a +6 on who best can improve economic conditions. Romney can't win the election if he cannot reverse that.

As is usual in a Pew poll, there's lots of data to go over, including:

• ACA/Obamacare approval (47) is virtually even with disapproval (43), but health care (22) trails jobs (33) in importance.

• Opinions of the Supreme Court have soured, thanks mostly to Republicans. In April, the fav/unfav was 56/25, and now it's 38/51.

What's interesting is that the Pew lead of 7 comes on the heels of a Reuters/Ipsos poll giving Obama a 6 point lead, and a shift in the pollster.com electoral map, which now has Obama leading with 281 electoral votes to Romney's 191. The pollster.com tracking average (using my baseline of always removing Rasmussen) gives Obama 46.8 to Romney's 43.6.

Other recent polls include the fickle Gallup tracker, now with Obama +3, identical to the latest Q-poll, and the dead even ABC/Washington Post poll. However, it's advisable to look at the polling average as well as all the recent polls, and if one does, the election remains extremely close. Close, but with a definite Obama lead.

That's the narrative going into the Bain discussion—it's another nail in the idea that Romney is the man to turn the economy around. On what basis? On what experience? Romney can't run on his MA Governor experience because that opens him up to discussion on Romneycare, godfather of Obamacare. And this poll, as of now, notes that Romney ties or trails Obama on the crucial element he needs to win.

What will it take to move that dial? Disastrous economic news, for Obama. And for Romney? Let's see how things shake out with Bain. Bain is like watering the driveway during a cold snap in winter, and expecting to get better traction.

As of now, it's not happening.

 

Originally posted to Greg Dworkin on Thu Jul 12, 2012 at 08:02 PM PDT.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  commentary from Nate Silver (32+ / 0-)

    "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

    by Greg Dworkin on Thu Jul 12, 2012 at 08:07:51 PM PDT

  •  yes but who's better at lying to the SEC? nt (7+ / 0-)

    "I'm sculpting now. Landscapes mostly." ~ Yogi Bear

    by eXtina on Thu Jul 12, 2012 at 08:12:33 PM PDT

  •  Oy vez (10+ / 0-)
    Cory Booker To Chair Dem Platform Committee

    about 4 hours ago – New Jersey Mayor Cory Booker and Lt. Gen. Claudia Kennedy (Ret.) will serve as the chair of the Democratic platform committee at this year’s Democratic National Convention…

    "But once John Boehner is sworn in as Speaker, then he’s going to have responsibilities to govern. You can’t just stand on the sidelines and be a bomb thrower." - President Obama, 12-07-2010

    by justmy2 on Thu Jul 12, 2012 at 08:15:03 PM PDT

  •  Romney can't really run on Bain right now (15+ / 0-)

    It's a big headache for him. Until he resolves the situation politically (and contrast his response with how the President handle Rezko), any time he brings it up it will work against more than it works in his favor. And he can't address the other dynamics--he's drop-off in Pew's numbers on handling the economy and in the battelgrounds--until he resolves the Bain issues.

    But there's something else that's significant about this Pew poll: compared to their poll from June, and especially in the battelground states, there's evidence that the Bain attacks are working and, as a result, denying Romney that strength he planned to run on.

  •  I'd say this is very good news (9+ / 0-)

    The terrorism numbers tell me Americans feel safer with Obama. And of course, rightly so. and we shouldn't forget - only 5 years ago, that was EVERYTHING. That defined who won. Funny how people forget.

    The job stat is annoying, but the economy stat sort of offsets it. And I'd think most voters would be more concerned about the economy than the unemployment numbers, since the employed are a bigger chunk of the voting block, and the unemployed will probably vote for Obama for other reasons anyway.

    •  Exactly right. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      addikell, Matt Z

      In every election between 2002 and 2008, the terrorism number would have been a gold-plated predictor of the vote count.

      Now, ironically, by virtue of the fact that we are much safer than when we were actively trying to create new terrorists, terrorism isn't quite so important a political thing.

      And as for +30% on dealing with the poor... I know that the plight of the poor isn't always the most important thing in any election, but my God, I wouldn't like the chances of a politician who was -30% on ANYTHING, including "would make a good Pictionary™ partner."

      I'm a pessimist, so I'm allowing for the possibility that there's some hinky sampling going on here and that it's actually much closer. But this is the first poll I've seen that makes me think Obama's small day-to-day lead might hold up through the October crapstorm we're bound to get.

  •  Funny how the article says... (21+ / 0-)

    "Currently, Obama holds a slim 51% to 44% margin among voters in 12 of the most competitive states."  Slim?  LOL, if that holds in those states, President Obama will win more than the 365 EVs he won in 2008.

    “For the first time in two decades, Osama bin Laden is not a threat to this country.” President Obama 1/24/12

    by BarackStarObama on Thu Jul 12, 2012 at 09:23:01 PM PDT

  •  Pin the stagnant jobs number on GOP... (6+ / 0-)

    Point out that if public sector jobs were at Bush levels the UER would be 7% - make plain that when politicians talk about "spending cuts" it means public sector job cuts.  

    So how can Pres Obama be attacked for job numbers that the GOP forced both federally and at state levels?  

    Maybe they're saving that for the fall campaign.  

  •  And... (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    fou, Only Needs a Beat, Matt Z

    It's Pew.  Which, to me anyway, is the gold standard.

    'Osama Bin Ladien is still dead and GM is still alive' - Joe Biden "Dems kill terrorist. The GOP keeps them around as a boogeyman - so they can continue to steal."

    by RichM on Thu Jul 12, 2012 at 09:52:37 PM PDT

  •  By now, 'Anybody But Obama' should be running (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    annieli, Only Needs a Beat, ExStr8

    strong among the commoners....Oh well....another GOP miscalculation.....prolly fatal.

  •  When the top two items go in Obama's favor (9+ / 0-)

    it will be all over.
    I can't imagine people so foolish they really think Romney's capable of reducing the deficit or creating jobs, but apparently there are some.
    Those two items go, and Romney's toast. If they go soon enough, the gop will be toast. Enthusisam will continue to wane on the right and everyone who isn't a gop koolaid drinker will be sick and tired of the Romney/gop superpac ads, which will be relentless, hysterical, frenzied.
    Everyone will just want the election to be over.

    Having said that, we need every vote. We need to fight voter suppression with everything we've got.

    You can't make this stuff up.

    by David54 on Fri Jul 13, 2012 at 05:52:39 AM PDT

  •  Pew calls 51 to 44 a "slim" lead? (8+ / 0-)
  •  Jobs part bothers me (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    pat bunny, Only Needs a Beat, mrsgoo

    Despite Obama leading on almost all of those issues, him not leading on the economy and jobs really bothers me.

    There's a lot of time left and obviously Obama isn't benefiting from the difficulties we're all still having... But Romney isn't going to help that stuff and I can only hope the Bain revelations that keep piling up keep working.

    •  he is leading on the economy by 6 (9+ / 0-)

      and jobs are withing the margin of error, Pew calls it a tie.

      Jobs are now, the economy is future.

      "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

      by Greg Dworkin on Fri Jul 13, 2012 at 08:08:38 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  True, but there are many people... (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        mrsgoo

        True, but there seems to be many people who don't think about the big picture in that sense. And maybe fairly, given how things are for them.

        I personally feel one of the major aspects of the GOP push is to mire people down so much that they can only focus on how crappy their own situations are getting while ignoring what's REALLY ruining their lives overall. And when you don't have a job or are underemployed, it might make sense to care about the economy as a whole -- but you have more immediate things to care about.

        I guess it just depends on what their underlying feeling about polling that was actually is.

      •  Surprising that distinction is made (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Jerry J

        I assumed that for most of us jobs was the economy.

        Is that some mostly wrapped in denial concept that "the economy" includes some healthy level of Public Sector employment, some day in some ideal future when we can "afford it?"

        When you are right you cannot be too radical; when you are wrong, you cannot be too conservative. --Martin Luther King Jr.

        by Egalitare on Fri Jul 13, 2012 at 08:18:01 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  you can think the jobs market sucks (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          mrsgoo

          and think the economy is improving or will improve (even if not fast enough).

          "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

          by Greg Dworkin on Fri Jul 13, 2012 at 08:29:01 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  Totally agree. The pocketbook issues are very (0+ / 0-)

      important. To me, the most important. And I am sure Team Obama is quite well aware of it.

      Maybe it's that old "conventional wisdom" meme that R's are better on the economy/jobs/defense. Well, Obama blew the defense one right out of the water.

      Anybody with a half a brain can see the R's would rather burn the jobs/economy than give Obama anything on that front. So I just do not understand why Rmoney would be ahead in that area. sigh.

      Bin Laden is DEAD, GM is Alive. We need to keep pushing that. As somebody mentioned upthread, if we can flip those last two it will be a big win.

      FORWARD.

      if a habitat is flooded, the improvement for target fishes increases by an infinite percentage...because a habitat suitability index that is even a tiny fraction of 1 is still infinitely higher than zero, which is the suitability of dry land to fishes.

      by mrsgoo on Fri Jul 13, 2012 at 08:41:22 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Now is the time for a new angle of attack (6+ / 0-)

    Romney has embraced the hallucination that is the Paul Ryan budget. And while I think Fred Astaire could dance with a hallucination (or anything else) and make it look good, Mitt Romney is no Fred Astaire.

    Point out that most estimates of Ryan's budget (which is now Romney's budget) show that it will balloon the budget deficit. And that one number where Romney really leads Obama (+14) vanishes like a hallucination when the drugs wear off.

    In theory, there is no difference between theory and practice; but in practice, there always is a difference. - Yogi Berra En théorie, il n'y a aucune différence entre théorie et pratique, mais en pratique, il y a toujours une différence. - Yogi Berra

    by blue aardvark on Fri Jul 13, 2012 at 08:10:44 AM PDT

    •  Great point. Ryan budget = Rmoney. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      blue aardvark

      if a habitat is flooded, the improvement for target fishes increases by an infinite percentage...because a habitat suitability index that is even a tiny fraction of 1 is still infinitely higher than zero, which is the suitability of dry land to fishes.

      by mrsgoo on Fri Jul 13, 2012 at 08:43:10 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  A worry here about the (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    DemFromCT, Jerry J, bwintx

    "improving the job situation" numbers. That is Achilles' heel of Obama's reelection.

    I think, therefore I am. I think.

    by mcmom on Fri Jul 13, 2012 at 08:12:15 AM PDT

    •  note that the economy is +6 for Obama (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      beltane

      jobs are close. Don't forget that's Romney's only asset. if that's all he can muster, he's losing. In this poll, by 7.

      "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

      by Greg Dworkin on Fri Jul 13, 2012 at 08:17:46 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Did responders rank issues by importance? (0+ / 0-)

        Putting the deficit numbers at the top gives an eyeball bias but do enough people really give a shit about this?

        The jobs situations is pretty soft too for the Mittened one
        weakness that can be exploited more as the campaign really takes fire.

        "I'll press your flesh, you dimwitted sumbitch! " -Pappy O'Daniel

        by jakewaters on Fri Jul 13, 2012 at 08:43:34 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Reducing the Federal budget (6+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    JanL, DemFromCT, indie17, mrsgoo, bridav58, Matt Z

    I find it interesting that people still think that Republicans can do this despite the real world evidence from the last 30 years.  I guess it is a testament to their messaging machine that wins them this topic regardless of the actual data available.  I don't remember Bill Clinton being a Republican nor was George W. a Democrat.

    "It looks like how music sounds." --My four year old nephew upon looking through a kaleidoscope for the first time

    by Mote Dai on Fri Jul 13, 2012 at 08:14:02 AM PDT

  •  I really believe the latest Bain revelations (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    chicago minx, indie17

    will prove to be a big drag long-term on Romney. People may not remember, or care to sort out what the facts are about who did or said what when.

    But they know skeeviness follows Romney around. And it seems he's cut from the same cloth as those Wall Street fat cats that made their own rules up all through the later Bush years and crashed the economy.

    It's leaving an impression of his character, and one that was already very well-formed: He's a double-talker that will say anything at any moment to further his goals, whether it's true or not. And everything he says and does must be fact-checked extensively and usually doesn't survive scrutiny very well.

    I think this was the moment his campaign really starts to take on water.

    Hopefully, the economy doesn't get worse, or some other unforeseen disaster befalls the admin in the next 4 months (Canada attacks!).

    "When I think of all the harm the Bible has done, I despair of ever writing anything to equal it." ~ Oscar Wilde

    by Scott Wooledge on Fri Jul 13, 2012 at 08:14:08 AM PDT

    •  all about his tax returns which he will not (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      chicago minx, beltane

      release. And if he paid no taxes thanks to a swiss bank account...

      "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

      by Greg Dworkin on Fri Jul 13, 2012 at 08:18:50 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  It just metastasizes into so many topics (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Losty, indie17, mrsgoo

        that he doesn't want to talk about, what Bain did from 1999-2002, who Bain invested in (China, Iran oil ventures, outsourcing operations), and why he won't release his tax returns.

        It's a pivot point for so many topics the campaign wants to mark off-limits. And, undermines his claim to extensive and relevant business experience. Without that claim, he's just a dorky guy no one likes.

        "When I think of all the harm the Bible has done, I despair of ever writing anything to equal it." ~ Oscar Wilde

        by Scott Wooledge on Fri Jul 13, 2012 at 08:23:31 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  It will also be interesting to see him at a (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      mrsgoo, Scott Wooledge, askew

      podium during the debates, standing next to Obama.  I see a Kennedy/Nixon contrast there between Obama's calm, honest demeanor and Romney's beady-eyed fast-talking doublespeak.  

      •  no.. I think it will be bloody (0+ / 0-)

        on both sides.

        President Obama does not want to face issues of jobs and deficit, and Romney will keep pounding on that.

        President Obama will try to hit him with Bain outsourcing and stuff like RomneyCare..

        It's gonna be brutal.

        •  Really? (0+ / 0-)

          Obama has to face the issues everyday he's the president afterall . I think it is telling that after all that's happened the last 4 years that Romney has only a 4 point lead in the jobs catergory  it ought to be more like a 20 point lead. The deficit? You think so many people being out of work not paying taxes and having to use entitlements might be some of the problem? Obama just needs to hit at the fact that not taxing the rich has been some of the problem for both the deficit & job problems.

        •  I don't know that he "does not want to face" (0+ / 0-)

          those issues in a debate.  Let's hear more about this recalcitrant Congress.  Obama will be ready.  Romney is the one who is blatantly dishonest and that is very hard to hide in a television debate with lots of closeups.

        •  Oh another thing is.. (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Scott Wooledge, askew

          If Obama is so "afraid" of facing the issue of jobs then why in he hell is he giving a press conference right this very minute about job creation? It's 11:48 AM my time which is central time here in S. Indiana.

        •  The deficit (0+ / 0-)

          largely resolves itself with the end of the wars and the final death (lord i hope!) of the unaffordable Bush tax cuts. I don't even like extending the middle-class tax cuts one more year, but since this job market is weak, it makes sense.

          Jobs and the deficit are not hard for Obama to address.

    •   Blame Canada! hehe. But this is a great point (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Scott Wooledge
      And it seems he's cut from the same cloth as those Wall Street fat cats that made their own rules up all through the later Bush years and crashed the economy.
      That needs to be pushed.

      if a habitat is flooded, the improvement for target fishes increases by an infinite percentage...because a habitat suitability index that is even a tiny fraction of 1 is still infinitely higher than zero, which is the suitability of dry land to fishes.

      by mrsgoo on Fri Jul 13, 2012 at 08:45:37 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Actually, I think the Bain thing is peaking too (0+ / 0-)

      early.

      Most voters do not have an attention span months long.  It will be difficult for the President's campaign team to keep this at the forefront.

      •  It's the branding though! (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        kbroers, Scott Wooledge, askew, EcosseNJ

        remember Kerry being swift boated? Kerry being branded as an elitist?  I think the issue is that Obama Campaign is branding Romney as a Wall Stret type elitist the message may fade but the branding usually sticks.

      •  Because you consider it an "event." (0+ / 0-)

        Which people do forget.

        But, in fact, it is a window into Mitt's character.

        He lied.

        Whether to the voters or the SEC, he lied. People remember that.

        "When I think of all the harm the Bible has done, I despair of ever writing anything to equal it." ~ Oscar Wilde

        by Scott Wooledge on Fri Jul 13, 2012 at 10:32:04 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  This isn't going to be.... (0+ / 0-)

        ....the grand slam that win the election for Obama, nor was it ever intended to be. It's part of a long term strategy to brand Romney as a rich, out of touch, elitist who'd make the slowly improving economy worse, not better. If this was the only trick up the Obama campaign's sleeve, they'd be breaking it out in October, not July. It's part of building a narrative and it's going to continue at a steady rate in the summer, to keep it in the public's mind. Then, there will be other avenues of attack in the fall, when people who aren't political junkies start paying full attention.

  •  Absolutely Amazing (5+ / 0-)

    Republican presidents blow the deficits through the roof, and 50% think Romney could do better? There are a whole lot of stupid people running around out there.

  •  Maybe, just maybe, the electorate will start to (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    indie17, mrsgoo

    be swayed by the facts, if the Dems will put them out there enough, regarding Obama's effort on jobs and the deficit, and those numbers will slowly work in Obama's favor.

    I think it's time to remind people of the "climate bill" that didn't get passed in the Senate that had millions of jobs in it.
    We need to keep reminding them that historically Dems have done better with the economy and deficits than Rebubs.

    You can't make this stuff up.

    by David54 on Fri Jul 13, 2012 at 08:17:57 AM PDT

  •  The first 2 are all that matters (0+ / 1-)
    Recommended by:
    Hidden by:
    Lost and Found

    Romney is leading in cutting the budget and creating jobs, that is all that will matter in November.

  •  Who would do the best job of... (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    mrsgoo, bridav58, bwintx

    Improving the job situation in China

    Obama     Romney
         %              %
         0             100

    Ann Richards on how to be a good Republican: You have to be against all government programs, but expect Social Security checks on time.

    by shoeless on Fri Jul 13, 2012 at 08:31:41 AM PDT

    •  YES! (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      shoeless

      if a habitat is flooded, the improvement for target fishes increases by an infinite percentage...because a habitat suitability index that is even a tiny fraction of 1 is still infinitely higher than zero, which is the suitability of dry land to fishes.

      by mrsgoo on Fri Jul 13, 2012 at 08:48:38 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Unfortunately (0+ / 0-)

    All we will hear about is the Wapo/ABC poll from earlier this week that shows them tied. I heard James Carville and Stan Greenberg a couple of days ago on the Public Radio show "On Point" with Tom Ashbrook. Ashbrook just kept on bringing up that poll over and over, as if it was the only poll ever taken, and that having an election was almost pointless, and Obama should just concede, never mind that every other poll shows Obama ahead. Maybe Ashbrook was playing devils advocate, but it was really getting annoying. The MSM cannot let go of the narrative that if unemployment is at a certain level, then Obama automatically loses, no matter what.

  •  Look at the #'s on National Defence! (0+ / 0-)

    .....BHO leads by double digits on keeping the country safe from terrorists.

    bV$hCo ruined the GOP as the party of national defense.

    Plastic People, Oh Baby Now, Yer sucha Draaaag

    by jds1978 on Fri Jul 13, 2012 at 08:37:35 AM PDT

  •  We USans be dumb. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    kbroers

    Romney better (by a long shot) on "Reducing the federal budget deficit"?  That's not merely dumb, it's bassackwards.  Have we lost all understanding of basic arithmetic? (or, I suppose, that mooslim plot called Al Gebra).  If the deficit (or surplus) is expressed as x - y, where 'x' is revenue, and 'y' is expenditures, then reducing revenues ('x') via tax cuts for the rich and corporations, and retention of loopholes, means that - surprise! - the deficit goes up.

    x - y = deficit or surplus

    1.5 - 2.5 = -1
    1 - 2.4 = -1.4  (2.4, because they'll slash social programs while jacking up the military, for a small net effect on revenues).

    Hint for those who suffered through a crappy education;  -1.4 is less than -1.

    No doubt this problem will go away once basic education has been completely destroyed.

    I am become Man, the destroyer of worlds

    by tle on Fri Jul 13, 2012 at 08:43:36 AM PDT

    •  It's the MATH, (0+ / 0-)

      America! Why people cannot grasp this basic math is beyond me. Graphs worked for Ronnie Reagan - let's see more of them illustrating, once again, that Bush's tax cuts and unfunded wars were by far the largest contributor to the deficit.

  •  My title for Mitt Romney (0+ / 0-)

    His Emptiness.

    He is also known, on Huffingtonpost as "Myth."  Just "Myth."

    Sums him up - the two titles/names

    Barbara Comstock - Romney spokesperson - just spoke without breathing for five minutes, using key buzzwords, over and over again.  She is just like other Republican word machines  - repeating, repeating, ad nauseum...and now a new word "prosperity - for all..."  that is what Comstock just unleashed on the nation.  I guess they are consulting with Joel Osteen.

  •  Subtract 5% for voter suppression (0+ / 0-)

    I'm telling y'all, do not take the poll results lightly at all. To overcome voter suppression, we may need to get leads of up to 10% in the polls in battleground states. This is no joke, you only need look at 2000 and 2004. The only way to counteract the disenfranchisement of millions is to get our turnout up and our poll margins extremely high with people less likely to be turned away at the polls.

    Some people are intolerant, and I CAN'T STAND people like that. -- Tom Lehrer

    by TheCrank on Fri Jul 13, 2012 at 08:49:12 AM PDT

    •  Voter suppression will come.... (0+ / 0-)

      ....into the picture, but I don't think it's going to be quite that drastic. But, without a doubt, the Justice Department and nonprofits need to redouble their efforts to ensure full access to the vote. Remember, we won in 2006 with a ton of Republicans still in charge of many states' voting mechanisms. But the possibility of shenanigans is still high.

  •  I am utterly baffled (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    evilhoodedcrow

    by the persistence of the belief that Republicans are good on the deficit. That's just plain crazy. I guess it shows that screaming a lot about something all of a sudden trumps reality. if Romney were too be elected, we'd never heard the word "deficit" again but given the reality of his policies, he would leave the biggest one in history — with the full complicity of his GOP buddies.

    Also I don't understand why so many people think Romney would create jobs. Seriously? His record as a job-killer and outsourcer isn't sticking? Why?

    Take the "Can't(or)" out of Congress. Support E. Wayne Powell in Va-07. http://www.ewaynepowell.com/

    by anastasia p on Fri Jul 13, 2012 at 08:53:06 AM PDT

    •  Be patient and enjoy... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Byblis

      that 12 point lead for Obama @ defending against terrorism...probably makes Cheney feel more pain than the guy he shot in the face...

      "It's almost as if we're watching Mitt Romney on Safari in his own country." -- Jonathan Capeheart

      by JackND on Fri Jul 13, 2012 at 09:06:57 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Romney leads on jobs though. (0+ / 0-)

    I'm afraid a lot of the other issues aren't going to tilt this election one way or another.

    http://www.freakonomics.com/

    by Common Cents on Fri Jul 13, 2012 at 08:56:42 AM PDT

  •  What I couldn't give (0+ / 0-)

    for some type of PSA about how Eisenhower was the last Republican president to balance the budget.

    I'm one of those evil, digitally published writer guys.

    by Jeffersonian on Fri Jul 13, 2012 at 09:00:34 AM PDT

  •  51 to 44 is... (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    sreeizzle2012, askew

    a slim margin? It's 7 points, same margin he won by in 2008. Few call his 2008 victory slim...

    "It's almost as if we're watching Mitt Romney on Safari in his own country." -- Jonathan Capeheart

    by JackND on Fri Jul 13, 2012 at 09:16:37 AM PDT

  •  Why is a 7% lead on a topic "slim" and yet (0+ / 0-)

    since 1980 we've had four elections with the victor in the 7%-8% range (PV) and those have all been considered fairly decisive, rather than "slim"

    Obama, 2008
    Clinton, 1992
    HW Bush 1988
    Reagan 1980

    The "slim" percentages have indeed been very slim (~2% or less):

    Kennedy, 1960
    Nixon, 1968
    Carter, 1976
    W Bush, 2000
    W Bush, 2004

    I get kind of tired of this.

    I'm one of those lucky homos in a bi-national relationship - at the age of 49, all I had to do was give up my career, leave behind my dying father, my aging, diabetic mother, my family & friends and move to Europe. Easy peasey!

    by aggieric on Fri Jul 13, 2012 at 09:19:40 AM PDT

    •  The media likes to make it a horserace, if (0+ / 0-)

      possible. Keeps us addicts glued to cable news.

      I was seeing what Adam had seen on the morning of his creation - the miracle, moment by moment, of naked existence. --The Doors of Perception, Aldous Huxley

      by Wildthumb on Fri Jul 13, 2012 at 09:32:28 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  The conventional wisdom is that whoever's ahead (0+ / 0-)

    at the end of June pretty much is the winner.

    That only gives me momentary relief. We need to act as if
    we're behind and we need to work our butts off to even break even.

    I was seeing what Adam had seen on the morning of his creation - the miracle, moment by moment, of naked existence. --The Doors of Perception, Aldous Huxley

    by Wildthumb on Fri Jul 13, 2012 at 09:33:56 AM PDT

  •  I think I'll wait for a "likely voter" poll (0+ / 0-)

    20% of the respondents weren't even registered voters.

    And Romney had an 8 point advantage on the economy last month, and now Obama has 8 point advantage?  A flip of 16 points?  Did someone see the economy getting better?  Did I sleep through that?

    Call me skeptical...  (and snarky)

    •  Never mind.. those numbers above are registered (0+ / 0-)

      voters.. the whole group was only used for some questions..

      But I still prefer likely voter polls.

      •  can't do it this early (0+ / 0-)

        no one knows who a likely voter is until september.

        and no one wants to wait until then to know what's going on.

        "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

        by Greg Dworkin on Fri Jul 13, 2012 at 10:22:25 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Context I repeat context.. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MBishop1

      It's not a matter of wether or not the economy is getting better BUT who will do a better job relating to thereof. It can be quite easy for one candidate to go from -8 to +8 WITHOUT the economy getting better just on the basis of the perception of who would do a better job of managing it and/or be trusted.

        The Bain attacks may just be working along with Romney's problems with releasing his tax returns along with possessing all of those offshore accounts.

  •  Cheney endorses Willard... (0+ / 0-)

    Yesterday,in his endorsement of Willard,Dick Cheney said that Willard is the only candidate out there capable of handling the foreign policy of the United States.
    Well, at least as it relates to Switzerland and the Bermuda Islands.
    Obviously,Cheney has already taken his new heart over to the dark side.

  •  It still blows my mind (0+ / 0-)

    That Republicans are STILL thought of as Fiscally responsible.

    Reagan tripled the national debt
    Bush 1 Doubled it
    Bush 2 Tripled it again, taking a budget surplus left by a Democrat, and leaving office with a $1.2 Trillion deficit.

    Yet, the majority of Americans think the Republicans are MORE Fiscally responsible then Democrats.

    I really don't get it  

  •  Mixed news, some good, some very bad. (0+ / 0-)

    the polling on who's better on jobs and deficit are troubling, especially jobs.  Because of media propaganda I expect the public to believe republicans are great on the deficit, but it's still worthy of a guffaw.  The guy who who wants to slash taxes and keep our military involved in wars and preserve SS and Medicare is the one who's best on the deficit?  LOL.  People will believe anything if the media repeat it enough.

    But the jobs polling is not good for Obama, and there's not a whole lot he can do except tear down the public's opinion of how Romney would do on jobs (thus the Bain attacks).  He's had four years and we haven't had a tremendous improvement in the unemployment rate.  Obama can't blame the GOP obstructionist congress because for four years he kept making deals with them and singing about bipartisanship.  Obama believed the republicans when they said they wanted to work with him and get all bipartisany, so why should the public believe them?  

    If Obama had spent four years lambasting the republicans in congress for obstructing economic recovery, the public perception of Obama's record on jobs would differ dramatically.  Unfortunately that's the sort of thing that takes years to cultivate (or a serious improvement in unemployment numbers).  

    "When I was an alien, cultures weren't opinions" ~ Kurt Cobain, Territorial Pissings

    by Subterranean on Fri Jul 13, 2012 at 10:19:59 AM PDT

    •  yes he can... (0+ / 0-)

      Obama can still put alot of blame on the GOP since even if he did bargain with them they still obstructed and obstructed. The GOP  did bargain BUT strung things along so much. What else could he do other then bi-partianship and even at that the GOP severly mis-used the filibuster to stymie him.

  •  The +14% on "Reducing the federal budget deficit" (0+ / 0-)

    is a marvel of Republican messaging discipline.  How in the frack do you run on the EXACT SAME POLICIES that TRIPLED the national debt in the 80s and then doubled it yet again in the 2000s and STILL post numbers like that?  Here's their next messaging coups: "Water is actually dry, the day is dark and bears wouldn't think of using the woods as a bathroom."

  •  A slim margin (0+ / 0-)

    "Obama holds a slim 51% to 44% margin"?

    Since when is 7 points slim?  I'm not trying to be over-confident but I bet if Romney was up 51-44 it would be called a "commanding lead" showing widespread support for the republican and disatisfaction with Obama's policy failures.

  •  Importance of issues (0+ / 0-)

    The issues which most people think are most important, especially jobs, are the ones Romney is favored on.

    •  uh huh... (0+ / 0-)

      Yes but only by 46-42% does Romney lead  and still Obama leads by 7 points. In June's poll jobs was listed as most important by 35% of respondents this month it is at 33%. Oh how big of a lead did Romney have in that catergory last month? I bet it was more then this month's 46-42% .I bet Obama had a smaller lead last month too.
         Romney probably had a bigger lead in regards to federal deficit too  and then you sill have that being the top priority amongst respondents going down from 22% last month to 19% this month.

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