In the 2nd quarter of 2012, the number of police stops (the first step in the stop-question-frisk chain of events) dropped 34%. The number fell to just under 134,000, down from 203,500 in Q1.
New York City Police are stopping far fewer people for questioning than they were even three months ago, according to the most recent data. For context, about half of the stops result in the person stopped being frisked by police. Also, about 85% of those stopped are either black or Hispanic, with blacks making up 22.8% and Hispanics 28.6% of the city's population according to the
2010 census (see p. 14).
An article in today's New York Times reports that the drop is occurring because police commanders have "grown wary of pushing for such stops at daily roll calls," according to NYPD supervisors.
More from the article:
The decline suggests that officers are unsure whether the political support remains for street stops, long a focal point of Police Commissioner Raymond W. Kelly’s crime-fighting strategy. In recent months, three court rulings have raised questions about the New York Police Department’s use of the tactic, and Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg and Mr. Kelly have put in place new measures aimed at ensuring lawful stops.
Police Commissioner Ray Kelly denied that political pressure had anything to do with the reduced numbers. He instead offered two reasons for the drop. The first was "enhanced training." The second, Kelly explained, was that the NYPD has been assigning fewer rookies to high-crime areas, and that the rookies had been responsible for a disproportionate percentage of the stops. Kelly further stated that the reduced number of stops did not result from any policy shift by the department.
Individual officers interviewed by the reporter made clear that a good number of sergeants, who had been daily emphasizing the importance of doing a large amount of stops, had noticeably backed off that emphasis in recent months. A Bronx officer cited the retraining mentioned by Kelly as one factor, and also the seemingly softer support for the stop-and-frisk policy coming from Mayor Bloomberg. This officer also cited the recent court cases, stating: “People read those articles and realized this may be illegal.”
The mayor's spokesman added the following: “As the mayor said, we needed to mend, not end, the practice, and the reforms Commissioner Kelly has put into place ensure the focus is quality, not quantity.”
Although detailed statistics by quarter are not yet available, the rate of violent crimes across a number of categories does not appear to have gone noticeably up or down thus far in 2012, although it's really too early to say what the effect of the reduced number of stops will be on crime. I'm not a criminologist, but from what I've read, even if there is a drop or increase in crime, we cannot definitively say that the change resulted from the reduced number of stops.
All I'll say is this: I'm hopeful that the police are able to continue reducing the number of stops, and I'm hopeful that the crime rate remains at the level it is or, even better, drops further. Those things would be very positive developments all around, in particular for the young black and Hispanic men who are being stopped in disproportionate numbers, with almost 90% of those stopped in the past 10 years being released without being charged according to NYPD statistics.