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Public Policy Polling for Daily Kos & SEIU. 8/2-5. Registered voters. MoE ±3.1% (7/26-29 results):

Q: If the candidates for President this fall were Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney, who would you vote for?

Barack Obama: 48 (48)
Mitt Romney: 46 (47)
Undecided: 7 (5)

A couple of weeks ago, Obama reached his lowest mark ever in Daily Kos/SEIU polling, a 46-46 tie with Romney. You never want to read too much into shifts of just a point or two, but obviously it's not a bad thing that Obama's moved back into the lead more recently.
Q: Did Mitt Romney's behavior on his recent trip overseas make you think he is more or less ready to be President, or did it not change your opinion?

More ready: 18
Less ready: 44
No change: 36
Unsure: 2

I've been following the Olympics pretty closely, and except for the occasional early glitch, it seems like our friends across the pond have done a bang-up job putting it all together. So yeah, not only was Romney a mega-douche when he slagged the Brits about the games on their own turf, but he was also wrong. And here's a bit of trivia: Among voters undecided between Obama and Romney, approximately half said Romney's overseas adventures made them think him less ready; ~5-10 percent said more. The sample size is only 56, but that difference is big enough to mean something.
Q: When Mitt Romney chooses a candidate for Vice President, do you think he will be more concerned with picking someone who will be qualified to serve as President in an emergency or picking someone who will give him a better chance of winning the election?

Qualified as president: 29
Better chance to win: 61
Both equally: 8
Unsure: 3

Sometimes you shake your head in wonderment about the things Americans believe; other times, the electorate knows exactly what's up. In this case, we've got the latter situation on our hands, since a wide majority of voters rightly anticipate that Romney is simply looking for an electoral edge with his VP pick, qualifications be damned. Call it the Curse of Sarah Palin.

P.S. As always, you can find all of our questions and results at our weekly trends page.

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Wed Aug 08, 2012 at 11:02 AM PDT.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Re: Mega-Ego Mitt -- (4+ / 0-)

    If the choice were between saving his own life  -OR- saving the lives of 300 Million Americans, Mitt, being the selfish bastard he is, would probably save his own skin.

    God save this nation by not electing that selfish, self-absorbed asshole, Mitt Romney!

    -4.75, -5.33 Cheney 10/05/04: "I have not suggested there is a connection between Iraq and 9/11."

    by sunbro on Wed Aug 08, 2012 at 11:12:18 AM PDT

  •  The VP Pick (6+ / 0-)

    The vice-presidential selection should be somebody who can help a candidate win.

    Nothing wrong with that; I think that's one of the major points of the overall selection process.

    However, the person selected had darned well better be qualified to become president.

    I'm now about 1/3 of the way through The Passage of Power, Robert Caro's marvelous multi-volume biography of Lyndon Johnson. This book takes a fairly detailed look at the reasoning why Kennedy picked Johnson to be his running mate.

    He didn't pick Johnson because they were buddies in the Senate. He picked Johnson because, without him on the ticket, JFK would likely not have won Texas. Johnson also helped Kennedy win several other Southern states.

    Without Johnson running as vice-president, it's entirely possible that Nixon would have won the 1960 election.

    So yes, LBJ was a strategic pick that helped Kennedy win, but he was also extremely qualified to become president.

    Lord, think if John Kennedy had picked the "Sarah Palin" of his time to be VP.

    I'm not familiar precisely with exactly what I said, but I stand by what I said, whatever it was. -- Mitt the Twit

    by Senor Unoball on Wed Aug 08, 2012 at 11:25:48 AM PDT

    •  Couldn't, He Had a Journalistic Press in His Day. (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      blue aardvark, Senor Unoball, Vico

      Somewhere bouncing around the cable historytician channels there is about 40 minutes or so of footage of a JFK press conference, might've been in a hanger.

      There's also the 1-2-hour history channel programs on the days around each of the JFK and MLK assassinations.

      If you're younger than this era and you haven't seen this material, you'll crap yourself when you do listening to the competence of the officials, reporters and anchors of that time interacting and reporting.

      We are called to speak for the weak, for the voiceless, for victims of our nation and for those it calls enemy.... --ML King "Beyond Vietnam"

      by Gooserock on Wed Aug 08, 2012 at 11:48:09 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I add: LBJ brought oil megabucks and power (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Senor Unoball

      Texas isn't just a large state with many voters.

      Much of Johnson's power and influence in politics came from being Texas oil money's man for doling out the dollars.

      Remember, in those days Texas and other Southern Dems were Dems because of the Civil War.

      Republicans were Northeastern anti-slavery Establishment.

  •  today (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    sunbro, TexMex, blue aardvark
    Sometimes you shake your head in wonderment about the things Americans believe; other times, the electorate knows exactly what's up. In this case, we've got the latter situation on our hands, since a wide majority of voters rightly anticipate that Romney is simply looking for an electoral edge with his VP pick, qualifications be damned. Call it the Curse of Sarah Palin.
    Unless you're brain dead, you are cynical.  

    Apres Bush, le deluge.

    by melvynny on Wed Aug 08, 2012 at 11:34:46 AM PDT

  •  Sorry, Off Topic, but (6+ / 0-)

    Word is Rob Portman is busy today revising his Wiki page... typically this is done when one is on the Veep short list.. or the actual pick.

    I really thought it would be T-Paw

    "A civilization which does not provide young people with a way to earn a living is pretty poor". Eleanor Roosevelt

    by Superpole on Wed Aug 08, 2012 at 11:37:09 AM PDT

    •  Portman and Ryan have had a ton of activity on (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      blue aardvark, Superpole, IM

      their Wikipedia pages over the past day. T-Paw, not nearly as much. Guess that narrows it down to two people.

      "How come when it’s us, it’s an abortion, and when it’s a chicken, it’s an omelette?" - George Carlin

      by yg17 on Wed Aug 08, 2012 at 11:48:29 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  IF Rmoney is smart (0+ / 0-)

        which I'm not sure he is... plus his phony religion/culture may be clouding his judgement;

        He'd pick Portman... that may lock in Ohio, and it's hard to win w/o Ohio

        "A civilization which does not provide young people with a way to earn a living is pretty poor". Eleanor Roosevelt

        by Superpole on Wed Aug 08, 2012 at 12:07:43 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  There is zero polling showing that Portman (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          pollbuster

          helps Romney in Ohio. There is polling that shows Portman hurting Romney in Ohio though.

          Portman is dull as dirt and isn't going to help Romney at all.

          President Obama at Madison Rally 9/28/2010 - "Change is not a spectator sport."

          by askew on Wed Aug 08, 2012 at 01:44:41 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  What sort of "polls"? (0+ / 0-)

            I don't put much stock in them.

            all I know is Obama won OH last time by 104,000 or so votes.

            that's not much of a margin.

            "A civilization which does not provide young people with a way to earn a living is pretty poor". Eleanor Roosevelt

            by Superpole on Wed Aug 08, 2012 at 02:02:43 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  No, it's not a huge margin, in (0+ / 0-)

              either absolute or percentage terms. It's also a margin that is likely to go down simply because 2012 might end up being tougher than 2012 in Ohio.

              Just for shits and giggles, let's chop that in half. Do you think Portman can move 52,000 votes, just by being from Ohio? Maybe he can; stranger things have happened. I think he will probably move some votes, for a few different reasons, but short of single handedly reviving the state's economy, particularly its manufacturing base, in less than two months, it just won't be by that much. Also consider that he might not be hated by Democrats, but he's hardly loved, and that he represented the old OH-02, which was Obama's third worst district in Ohio in 2008. There's probably only so much untapped potential, unless this district has a shit ton of voters waiting to emerge from the woodwork to support a Romney-Portman ticket.

              "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

              by bjssp on Wed Aug 08, 2012 at 10:05:32 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

        •  Romney needs to shore up two things: (0+ / 0-)

          1.  His economy cred (which people actually appear to think he'd be better at than Obama, although most of this is undoubtedly a result of the unemployment numbers)

          2.  Foreign policy.

          Romney will be the first Republican Presidential candidate in a long while running at a deficiency when it comes to foreign policy.  His tour across Europe was absolutely nothing compared to Obama's, and he's not going to have anything to compete with the impressive resume Obama has chalked up in his term.

          There is a reasonable belief that Obama selected Biden not because Biden could secure Pennsylvania (which seemed like a money trap for the GOP anyways), but because he could provide some of the foreign policy cred he appeared to be deficient in.

          Romney exposes himself considerably if he just ignores this and focuses solely on either winning one state or trying to make the election about the economy (which is dangerous on his part if jobs numbers continue to inch up).  Remember, Obama has several paths to victory; Romney only has one.  Plugging the electoral hole in Ohio can easily expose him in Virginia, and vice versa.  I don't think Romney is going to choose someone to deliver a state, nor is this really the modus operandi for most VP selections in recent years anyways.

    •  Yesterday As Well, Somebody Put Up some Snap (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      blue aardvark

      shots indicating the editing activity.

      We are called to speak for the weak, for the voiceless, for victims of our nation and for those it calls enemy.... --ML King "Beyond Vietnam"

      by Gooserock on Wed Aug 08, 2012 at 11:49:13 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Wikipedia page... (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Superpole, CocoaLove

      I've taken a look at the edits, and I'd say that the primary changes today have been removal of unreferenced information in the article, there are at least 3 or 4 experienced wikipedia editors who have edited it in the last 24 hours and who are watching it. The most recent bunch of changes is at http://en.wikipedia.org/... , so if you think something that was deleted should be re-added, please reference it.  

    •  The current equivalent of reading tea leaves? (0+ / 0-)

      or perhaps it's like the old practice of trying to figure out what was going on in the Soviet Union by examining the seating arrangements in photos of the Politburo members.

    •  I would expect Portman (0+ / 0-)

      Reasonably competent, background in previous GOP adminisration, from a pivotal state with a good share of electoral votes.
      One caveat: Presidential candidates do seem to like to throw surprises. Examples: McCain needed to please the Right Wing, but Sarah Palin was not the only possible choice. Neither was Joe Biden.

      Censorship is rogue government.

      by scott5js on Wed Aug 08, 2012 at 02:28:24 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  He'll pick someone whom he _thinks_ will help him (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    blue aardvark

    Doesn't actually mean that said Veep choice will.

  •  The Gold medal is only for electoral vote wins (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    blue aardvark

    Popular votes polls  are a distraction.

  •  This is good rhetoric here, of course (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    blue aardvark, Lilredhead, IM

    I'm not sure which poll you're relating to, of course, but I received a phone call about this very thing:

    Q: Did Mitt Romney's behavior on his recent trip overseas make you think he is more or less ready to be President, or did it not change your opinion?
     More ready: 18
     Less ready: 44
     No change: 36
     Unsure: 2
    Now, to be honest about the phone poll I got, the questioned was prefaced with "information" about how Romney's trip to Israel went with regard to Israeli's and other "feelings" that came about that was presented.

    Maybe this poll that was cited wasn't the one I got the phone call for...so, not questioning the results posted here in that respect.  I do know that sometimes polls come about from "skewed" questions.  Hope that's not the case in this SEIU/Daily Koss poll.

    Thanks.

    The truth is sometimes very inconvenient.

    by commonsensically on Wed Aug 08, 2012 at 11:38:59 AM PDT

  •  Nate Silver waxed mathematical regarding (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    IM

    Romney's VP pick today.

    To maximize his chances, he recommends ... Bob Portman. On the grounds that Ohio is fairly likely to be the deciding state IF Romney wins. Florida, although larger, is less likely to be the state that decides things, because Romney is more likely to win Florida and lose Ohio than the reverse.

    For lulz, consider that Rick Santorum actually reduces Romney's chances in Pennsylvania and therefore overall.

    Romney economics: Feed our seed corn to the fattest pigs and trust them to poop out jobs.

    by blue aardvark on Wed Aug 08, 2012 at 11:40:23 AM PDT

    •  Sandoval also in top 3. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      blue aardvark

      Governor Sandoval of Nevada is also viewed as being one of the most useful since he may enough to flip a slighly democratic leaning State to Romney.

    •  But Silver said nothing about other VP effects (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      IM

      He certainly waxed about the effect on winning the VP's home state, and whether that could make a difference, but he said nothing about what else the VP could add to Romney's chances (such as by picking the popular Hispanic woman governor of New Mexico, Susana Martinez, which could have a lot of impact beyond New Mexico's five electoral votes).

      •  Actually, he did (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Delilah

        He simply dismissed it. Because the evidence for a VP pick having much positive effect outside the VP's home state just isn't there, and Nate's an evidence-based guy.

        Romney economics: Feed our seed corn to the fattest pigs and trust them to poop out jobs.

        by blue aardvark on Wed Aug 08, 2012 at 12:11:47 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  No, he only talks about the home state advantage (0+ / 0-)

          Here is what he says in the first 2 paragraphs:

          "We haven’t had that much to say about Mitt Romney’s choice of a vice-presidential nominee — mostly because it just isn’t something that lends itself to rigorous analysis.

          But let’s focus on the part of the problem where our tools — particularly, the simulation program that runs the FiveThirtyEight presidential forecast — come in handy. Whatever else they do or do not accomplish for Mr. Romney, his potential running mates could improve his standing in their home states, potentially changing the outcome there."

          •  I guess you missed that part about (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Delilah

            'not lending itself to rigorous analysis'. It is very hard to tease out, for example, just how many votes Sarah Palin cost John McCain.

            Romney economics: Feed our seed corn to the fattest pigs and trust them to poop out jobs.

            by blue aardvark on Wed Aug 08, 2012 at 12:23:11 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  No, that's why I copied it (0+ / 0-)

              Silver admits that he cannot analyze the effect.  He says nothing about whether there would be one or not.  That's why he sticks to the in-state effect, which is amenable to  Silver-style analytics.  To truly evaluate the potential effects you would need to have national or extensive state polls that could determine whether a particular VP candidate moves the polls.  Knowing whether a woman VP nominee from another state would affect how a Virginian might vote has nothing to do with in-state effects, but sure could determine the election.

  •  Mega-douche! I used to love those guys, had all (3+ / 0-)

    their records!

    Sent via African Swallow carrying a coconut

    by ipaman on Wed Aug 08, 2012 at 11:44:17 AM PDT

  •  sorry but my ShelterBox diary is slipping away. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    blue aardvark

    ShelterBox in Lebanon for Syrian refugees!

    http://www.dailykos.com/...

  •  Now confused (0+ / 0-)

    Seen other posts with Obama up big time in national, state and swing state polls.  Have also seen reports saying Obama takes in a landslide due to MSM desire to "keep it close" to preserve their relevance through the election.

    Now, you say it is only a 2 point lead?  What's the margin of error?

    Wut?

    Somebody said Party! I got excited. I love Parties! Especially Parties with exclamation marks! Now I'm sad because there's not a Party! h/t AnnetteK ;-)

    by EdMass on Wed Aug 08, 2012 at 11:49:11 AM PDT

  •  Being 2% up will mean a loss (0+ / 0-)

    If it's close, the Republicans, whom control all of the voting machine companies, will simply STEAL the elction through voting machine chicanery as they have done before.

    The GOP would have stolen the last election if it had been at all close. We have to do better than 2%.

  •  I'm not surprised GOP is doing so well (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Be Skeptical, hyperstation

    I've been watching since the early 1950s how the GOP has been selling their candidates like soap, literally! Using their corporate, Madison Avenue, psy ops techniques.

    Plus, GOP controls most of the media.

    No wonder people vote against their own interests.

    Once Reagan was elected Governor of California, I realized there was a paradigm shift.

    I'd like to know what we can be doing.

  •  Stunning that there (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    hyperstation

    can be so many millions of depraved, stupid people who have figured out how to register to vote and respond to a poll.  Why is that psychopathic, lying asshole so close?

    " My faith in the Constitution is whole; it is complete; it is total." Barbara Jordan, 1974

    by gchaucer2 on Wed Aug 08, 2012 at 11:56:29 AM PDT

  •  The one troubling demographic for the President (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Be Skeptical

    is those Independents.  (I'm looking at quesiton #1)

    Dems & Repubs pretty much even each other out with only a few undecided.

    But, Independent's favor Romney by 6 points with 10 percent still undecided.

    The other interesting numbers are American Indians and the 30-45 demo..  

    Am I missing some background story on why Obama's numbers are so poor with American Indians?  I know they are a minuscule percentage of population, but it just seems curious.

  •  a real problem understanding statistics here (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    dackmont
    MoE ±3.1% (7/26-29 results):
    ...
        Barack Obama: 48 (48)
        Mitt Romney: 46 (47)
        Undecided: 7 (5)
    ...
    A couple of weeks ago, Obama reached his lowest mark ever in Daily Kos/SEIU polling, a 46-46 tie with Romney. You never want to read too much into shifts of just a point or two, but obviously it's not a bad thing that Obama's moved back into the lead more recently.
    no no no [weary head-shake]....   see that  "±3.1%" up there?  (which assumes a perfectly random sampling - which is wasn't - so the error is even larger), that means the "46-46 tie" has exactly the same significance as the posted "48-46" two point difference.  there is no difference.  you simply cannot conclude Obama did not move back into the lead.

    really you poll interpreters ought to know better than this by now.

    •  Not all statistical ties are identical (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      R30A, hyperstation, IM

      Because error is distributed normally. Being within the MOE just means that you cannot say with 95% confidence that a candidate is leading.

      Male, 22, -4.75/-6.92, born and raised TN-05, now WI-02, remorseless supporter of Walker's recall. Pocan for Congress and Baldwin for Senate!

      by fearlessfred14 on Wed Aug 08, 2012 at 12:46:22 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  agreed... (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        hyperstation, dackmont

        you're are quite correct.  what i should've said is that we should have little confidence (less even than 95%) that there is any significant difference between posting a "46-46% tie" and a "48-46% lead" (no matter how much we wish it were otherwise).

        but even assuming that the error is normally distributed remains an assumption.

  •  NPR just said Obama and Romney (0+ / 0-)

    are tied in CO. That's not the impression I get.

    The universe may have a meaning and a purpose, but it may just specifically not include you.

    by Anne Elk on Wed Aug 08, 2012 at 12:14:53 PM PDT

    •  If you average the last two polls together (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      itskevin

      then that conclusion seems reasonable, though I doubt the Q-poll. (38% over 65?  What's their likely voter model?  People who voted in 1984?)

      Still, at least they didn't simply cite Qunnipiac and proclaim that Obama was doomed in the state and nationally.

      36, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

      by Mike in MD on Wed Aug 08, 2012 at 12:36:50 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Nate cut CO to tossup (0+ / 0-)

        based on the Q poll, though Obama's overall win percentage still rose slightly due to an upgrade of VA to lean Dem. While Q has a good historical record they seem to be throwing out a lot of outliers this cycle which is denting their credibility in my eyes - there is zero chance that Obama is simultaneously +6 in FL and -5 in CO.

  •  So, ~18% of our country (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    R30A, hyperstation, Zack from the SFV

    is absolutely, certifiably, batshit insane. No one in their right mind could survey Mitt's performance during his foreign jaunt and conclude that he "is more ready" to be President. Egads.

    Real stupidity beats artificial intelligence every time. (Terry Pratchett)

    by angry marmot on Wed Aug 08, 2012 at 12:44:28 PM PDT

    •  Probably Likud sympathizers (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      R30A, The Caped Composer

      and by no means all of them. They heard him declare Jerusalem to be the capital and say that Palestine had inferior culture, and so Romney must be more capable. These guys seem to think Israel should be our only ally.

      Disclaimer: I am not saying that all Israel supporters think this. I'm fairly pro-Israel myself, but I think Bibi is a dangerous wingnut, that a two-state solution is the only way, and that we need lots of allies, including Muslim countries.

      Male, 22, -4.75/-6.92, born and raised TN-05, now WI-02, remorseless supporter of Walker's recall. Pocan for Congress and Baldwin for Senate!

      by fearlessfred14 on Wed Aug 08, 2012 at 12:53:51 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  So... (0+ / 0-)

    It seems as though the American public actually does know what's what if you believe these type of polls. Besides the well-known conservative tactic of voter suppression, how in the hell did G.W. Bush get elected?

    I wasn't all that crazy about Gore, but jesus, that was ridiculous! Twice!

  •  State of the art (0+ / 0-)

    Not (at all) meaning to single you out, Markos, but it strikes me that the usefulness of talking about single polls, or one or two polls, or even unweighted averages of all recent polls, has been pretty much mooted by Nate Silver's approach.  He raised the level of analysis, as well as predictive outcome, several notches in '08.  I'd like to see other commentators on polling try to rise to that level (not duplicating Nate's approach, but being as sophisticated) and see where the conversation goes.  It could get really interesting.

    Aside: One thing I'd like to see (which is doable without a Nate-like approach) is exit polls being used again and improved (if necessary), so as to restore the accountability that was lost when the legacy media collectively threw up their hands in '04 and said "gee, exit polls must not work anymore, couldn't have been vote-counting shenanigans, that's so 2000".

    A reasonable amount of hope, some incremental change, and a chance to flip SCOTUS. And every day, the opposition motivates me to get my base in gear.

    by dackmont on Wed Aug 08, 2012 at 02:54:14 PM PDT

  •  LOL (0+ / 0-)

    I'm laughing at the title, as if a statistically insigificant change is a "move". lol  I don't doubt the president is leading nationally, and I think it's by more than these one and two point leads the national polls are currently showing, but this was just a funny title.

  •  OT: MI-11's McCotter (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Zack from the SFV

    I'll find the article later, but the Free Press is reporting that indictments are going to be handed down in the MI-11 election fraud fiasco, tomorrow.  There seems to be hints that McCotter may actually be one of those indicted.  There will be misdeamonrs and felonies doled out.  This could get uglier than anyone imagined.

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