There is a diary on the Rec list by blue aardvark that cites a Nate Silver piece from a few days ago. In it, Silver concludes, that Ryan would result in a net 2.5% swing for Romney in Wisconsin. Silver bases this upon Ryans favorable-unfavorable polls, where he notes
Another of Mr. Romney’s potential choices, Representative Paul Ryan of Wisconsin, drew more mixed reactions. Although Mr. Ryan should win his home district, pollsters who tested his numbers throughout Wisconsin found more tenuous results, with 38 percent of voters giving him a positive rating and 33 percent a negative one.
Problem is, Silver didn't look at everything. Most notably.. a poll from PPP last month in WI where Ryan changed WI from a 6 point Obama lead in WI to a 1 point Obama advantage.
In their poll, PPP found that in a one on one race, Obama has 50% of the vote in WI and Romney had 44%.
Wisconsin residents weren't just voting for the home-state kid. Romney-Walker was still losing at 49-43. But when the VP candidate was changed to Ryan, it becomes a 47-46 race. How does Ryan help Romney?
A stronger vice presidential choice for Romney may be Representative Paul Ryan, who brings Romney to within a point of the president, at 47% to 46%. This movement comes almost entirely from an increase in support within Romney’s own party, as his margin jumps 7% among voters describing themselves as somewhat conservative and 5% among very conservative voters.
Point is, Ryan helps. More than 1%. Silver was wrong in his method, as he neglected an actual poll that looked into this. Moreoever, PPP is not Rasumussen. THey don't lean right. In fact, Ryan had a 5 point net positive favorability in their poll, similar to Silver's calculation. Problem is, it seems to matter more than he estimated.
In an earlier dairy, I wrote that Ryan should not be underestimated. I hope this serves as a reminder as such.
UPDATE- I changed the title. Initially I said "Silver is wrong..." The PPP poll and Silver's poll ask difference questions with different methods, so a direct comparison cannot be made. Silver compares (via favorable/unfavorable ratings) each candidate's effect in his/her home state. PPP in July asked if Ryan was VP, how would people vote. The PPP question is more pertinent. As many have correctly pointed out, it is only one poll from a month ago. So, until there are more WI state polls, it isnt extremely helpful.
I am not making any national statement here. I do not support Ryan or Romney in any way whatsoever. My previous diaries on DK (from 2005) support I proudly associate with the Democratic party.
The only point of this diary is to bring up a PPP poll that many never knew existed..