Polls in August
If we're lucky, we get to bury this one forever. Polls in April matter, at least for speculation about relative standing. Polls in August? Look at the graphic up top. It's pollster.com without the Rasmussen and Gallup trackers, sensitivity turned up high.
Want to know why McCain Romney picked Palin Ryan and not Lieberman Portman?
Look at the graph.
Now, you can't always use August polling to predict November. That much is true. But if you were not paying attention to the polls, you'd be mystified by the candidate's actions.
Oh, and by the way, the polls also tell you a great deal about attitude. They tell you that the public wants Romney's taxes released. They tell you that seniors don't like changes to Medicare and that the Ryan budget is unpopular with voters. They tell you that however people feel about Obamacare—it's mixed, with people liking the provisions but not the law—the Supreme Court has decided and folks want to move on. And they tell you that Romney is disliked.
People who are disliked don't win elections. Tad Devine writes about why that matters:
We don't like Mitt — and it matters
Romney struggles to connect with voters
One day, [former MA Gov. candidate John] Silber told me something that sounds simple, yet is insightful and particularly germane today. While talking about his race for governor, he said: “The biggest lesson I learned in my campaign was: They’re not going to vote for you unless they like you.”
So the next time someone tells you the polls in summer don't matter, keep in mind they are talking in a narrow sense only about who will win in November. Remind them that this summer has one of the smallest numbers of undecideds in recent memory, that the constant presence of social media has changed the nature of the horse race and that the idea that "serious campaigning starts Labor Day" is a horse and buggy concept.
The contours of this race were set way before the fall. The horse race polls may change with the VP pick and the conventions (and given the Ryan pick, short term they likely will.) But that doesn't mean people like Romney any better or all of a sudden want to jettison Medicare, or that Romney hasn't lost the last two months compared to the Obama team, which is why he went with Ryan.
While it's still too early to decide who is going to win (unless you're a forecaster or Nate Silver), just keep in mind Paul Ryan is not running for president.
On the other hand, his budget is. And that's another thing that matters.