Skip to main content

Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest banner
Want the scoop on hot races around the country? Get the digest emailed to you each weekday morning. Sign up here.
Leading Off:

NV-04: Danny Tarkanian has really stepped in it. Last week, the Republican congressional hopeful and borderline perennial candidate told the Las Vegas Review-Journal editorial board that he thought he could connect to the African-American community in the district because of a basketball academy runs; a number of local Democrats didn't like those remarks because they felt Tark was relying on stereotypes about blacks. So in his "defense," Tarkanian told a group of Republicans:

"Should we not work within the black community? We could be like Steven Horsford who's not doing anything with that community and, you know, pretend we're black and maybe try to get some votes if that's where it is."
So Tarkanian accused his Democratic opponent, who is African-American, of "pretending to be black"... and he's not apologizing, either. Somehow I don't think this is going to end well for Li'l Tark. And indeed, Tuesday wound up being a whole lot more painful. As you may know, Tarkanian and his family were hit with a $17 million judgment back in May over a failed loan that they'd guaranteed. At the time, it was clear Tark would never have the means to pay, and I speculated that he'd have to file for bankruptcy if the judgment stood.

Well, no surprise: Tarkanian's now begging the judge to issue a stay of his ruling while he appeals, admitting that he'd be driven "to financial insolvency" and would be "possibly forced into bankruptcy" if the judgment is executed as-is. If Tark does have to file for Chapter 11 in the middle of a campaign, especially over a sum so large, how could he possibly hope to win?

Senate:

HI-Sen: Hah, seriously? I guess Republican ex-Gov. Linda Lingle has no choice but to go dumpster-diving for those elusive Obama-Lingle voters, but posting a pic of her with the POTUS on her Facebook page is so comically transparent.

MO-Sen: Dem Sen. Claire McCaskill is keeping up the pressure on Todd Akin, launching her third negative ad since he won the GOP primary. This spot centers around a Akin clip that featured in one of her earlier ads, where he compared student loans to "stage three cancer." (Full quote: "America has got the equivalent of stage three cancer of socialism.) Akin's finally firing back with a hit of his own, a kitchen sink affair that furiously tries to cram in every possible attack on McCaskill: "deciding vote" on Obamacare, the "cut Medicare" lie, and also the airplane taxes issue.

P.S. Here's the IE report from the DSCC for their new anti-Akin ad. The buy was for a reported $1 million or so, while the report reflects an expenditure of $488K. It's quite common for large airtime purchases to get spread over multiple reports, though.

MT-Sen: The Montana Petroleum Marketers & Convenience Store Association (yes, that's a thing) has a new "issue" ad out attacking Dem Sen. Jon Tester for allegedly supporting higher debit card swipe fees. Meanwhile, in another new spot, GOP Rep. Denny Rehberg ignores Tester entirely and attacks President Obama over his notorious "the private sector is doing fine" line.

NH-Sen: PPP also tested freshman Dem Sen. Jeanne Shaheen against a generic Republican opponent in 2014 in their new New Hampshire poll. She's doing pretty well, up 51-42, very close to her 50-40 job approval rating, though of course those numbers rely on a 2012 likely voter universe.

NM-Sen: The coalition of environmental groups backing Dem Rep. Martin Heinrich's candidacy is out with an internal poll from FM3 showing Heinrich with a sizable 50-41 lead over Republican Heather Wilson. That's up from a 48-45 edge in May from the same pollster (though I think those numbers were previously unreleased). The polling memo is a little more detailed that unusual and even includes results for some message testing-type questions, so click through if you'd like more.

NV-Sen: Dem Rep. Shelley Berkley's trying to turn the tables on ethical attacks against her, accusing GOP Sen. Dean Heller of letting a Nevada diamond company get away with some penny-stock scam. I don't think the ad is very effective or clear, and as this local news report explains, it rests on a very questionable assertion, namely, that Heller had any kind of investigative authority over the company when he served as Secretary of State. (The answer is basically no.)

OH-Sen: Despite the enormous sums of money that conservative third-party groups have thrown into ads attacking Dem Sen. Sherrod Brown (we're closing in on $12 million now), his lead over Josh Mandel in PPP's latest poll has only increased. The incumbent now tops his challenger 47-37, up from 46-39 back in late June. Mandel's favorables really suck: He's mired at 26% positive and 42% negative. As Tom Jensen says, "You'd be hard pressed to find a serious Senate candidate in the country this year with worse favorability numbers than those." Also of note, Obama retains his three-point edge over Romney, 48-45 (it was 47-44 last time). And this is despite PPP switching from a registered voter model to a likely voter model, a switch many feared would start yielding more pro-GOP results.

Gubernatorial:

IN-Gov: Democrat John Gregg is out with his first ad, in which he decries political ads in general, then talks about some friends of his who like to hang out together. He also refers to himself as "the guy with two first names running for governor." Take that, one-first-name Mike Pence!

House:

AZ-04: The dentists are coming! The dentists are coming! Seldom shy about helping one of their fellow tooth-yankers, the American Dental Association is trying to prevent dentist/congressman Paul Gosar from getting root-canaled in the GOP primary with $24K in direct mail.

CA-18: It's another congressional resignation by a dude who long ago said he wouldn't seek re-election: Dem Rep. Dennis Cardoza is pulling the plug, effective midnight Wednesday. Cardoza explained:

"In light of the fact that nothing is going to happen for the rest of the year, and in light of the fact that (my wife) and I are facing increasing parenting challenges, this seemed the right time to make this move."
The Sacramento Bee says that no special election will be held due to the late timing of Cardoza's announcement. And Cardoza already has a new job, joining lobbying firm Manatt, Phelps & Phillips as a managing director. I guess that's what he meant when he said: "I'm not leaving my service to the Valley. I'll just be doing it from a different venue."

FL-18: GOP Rep. Allen West slams Democrat Patrick Murphy in his new ad, attacking Murphy over another ad being aired by a super PAC funded mostly by Murphy's father. Conservatives have exploded in fury, charging that the ad is racist.

KY-06: Both sides are out with their first ads in the KY-06 rematch. First up is Republican Andy Barr, whose wife narrates a positive spot about the birth of their daughter—no special story here, just the fact that they had a kid last year. Meanwhile, Dem Rep. Ben Chandler goes the anti-spending route, saying "I’ve always been of the belief if you spend more than you take in, you're going to go broke" and touting his vote in favor of a balanced budget amendment. We have the size of the buy for both candidates: Chandler is spending $50K while Barr is spending $82K on TV and $20K on radio and online.

MA-Sen: The League of Conservation Voters had spent a little over $10K on various miscellaneous expenses in the Massachusetts Senate race, but this is the first time they've ever shelled out real money, with $63K on "field campaign consulting" targeting GOP Sen. Scott Brown. That's still not a ton, but the agreement between Brown and Elizabeth Warren that effectively blocks third parties from running ads here means that outside groups are mostly limited to field work.

MI-11: Former state Sen. Nancy Cassis got smoked in her bid to win the GOP nomination via write-in last week but she's still forging ahead with plans to run in the special election for the final two months of ex-Rep. Thad McCotter's term. It doesn't really sound like her heart is in it (most telling: she "pointed to previous campaign efforts when asked about ongoing attempts to raise her profile"), and in any event, there's a special primary on Sept. 5 she'd have to win first. I suppose that whoever fills out this stub term might have a leg up in terms of challenging the winner of the full term in 2014, but Cassis would be 70 by then.

ND-AL: Democratic ex-state Rep. Pam Gulleson, who faces Public Service Commissioner Kevin Cramer for this open seat, is out with her first ad. It's a positive introductory spot that focuses on her agricultural roots (she still runs a family farm today).

NH-01, NH-02: Looks like we'll have a lot of New Hampshire polling from PPP this week. In addition to their own in-house survey, they conducted a poll of the Granite State for DFA as well, and the House numbers continue to look good for Democrats. In the 1st, Carol Shea-Porter leads GOP Rep. Frank Guinta 48-44, basically unchanged from PPP's May poll when she was up 47-44. And in the 2nd, Annie Kuster has also legged out to four-point edge over Rep. Charlie Bass, 47-43; last time, they were tied at 42 apiece. The poll also has Obama up 50-44 over Romney statewide.

There's a second new NH-01 poll out as well, from the DCCC by way of Grove Insight. The spread is quite similar to PPP's, with CSP beating Guinta 45-39. I can't think of a lot of incumbents who would like to be at 39% in any poll, nor saddled with a 35-57 job approval rating, as Guinta is. If he has any internal polling of his own that tells a different story, it's well past time to cough it up.

Meanwhile, Kuster is out with her first ad of the cycle. It's a positive introductory spot in which she says she learned about "frugal Yankee values" from her parents, who "were Republican when we were growing up." Based on that theme, she sets herself up as someone willing to be bipartisan, which I expect will serve as a hook to later messages that try to paint Bass as a GOP hack.

NY-25: I think this falls into the category of "shit you're not supposed to actually say out loud." NY GOP chair Ed Cox on Dem Rep. Louise Slaughter:

COX: "Louise Slaughter, she's going to have a hard time carrying on a campaign.... Because of age and infirmities. She's just has a hard time."

LIZ: "So you think she's too old to be in Congress?"

COX: "I think there comes a time for members of Congress when they, the public senses they're no longer effectively representing them for a variety of reasons."

LIZ: "How old was (the late former Senator) Strom Thurmond? How old is too old?"

COX: "It's a question of being effective. It's a question of being infirm, frankly, and being able to carry out your duties."

Slaughter just turned 83 and suffered a bad fall which required extensive rehab earlier this year. But no one's questioned her mental sharpness, and I think Cox is going to regret calling her "infirm."

Grab Bag:

17: What's with that lead-in tag? Am I missing a state in front of it? Nope: It's a reference to the seventeenth amendment to the United States Constitution—one which a surprisingly large number of Republican Senate candidates seem intent on repealing. Not that it'll ever happen, but it's comically amusing because these guys want to eliminate direct elections for the very posts they're running for! It's also, of course, an extremely non-mainstream view, and Roll Call's Niels Lesniewski does a nice job cataloging exactly which GOPers are hewing to it this cycle, thus showing their true colors. In the previous Digest, we mentioned that Jeff Flake in Arizona is an adherent, but Pete Hoekstra (Michigan), Richard Mourdock (Indiana), and Todd Akin (Missouri) are all at least seventeenther-curious if not fully on board. Lesniewski also helpfully provides some background on the amendment, which was ratified in 1913 at the heyday of the original progressive movement, in an effort to root out corruption.

DCCC: Attack of the killer (or at least dinner-interrupting) robots! The DCCC has launched a wave of robocalls in 50 different districts. I can't say the overall list of districts (or the call's contents—the Ryan plan, in case you didn't guess) are terribly interesting, but sometimes it's worth taking a deep dive into these mega-lists to see if there are any districts that stand out. And this time, there are: On the one hand, fewer than 10 of the 50 are races where Dems are playing defense, which is good news in itself. But while most of the defensive seats are no surprise (NC-07, PA-12, etc.), one stands out: it's IA-02 (Dave Loebsack), a Dem-leaning seat that nobody has really thought of as being in much peril (we have it at Likely Dem). Did the DCCC get an internal they didn't like there? On the flip side, though, there's a handful of offense races that you wouldn't expect to see either (that we have rated as Safe Republican): FL-13 (Bill Young), OH-10 (Mike Turner), and PA-07 (Pat Meehan). (David Jarman)

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Wed Aug 15, 2012 at 05:00 AM PDT.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

EMAIL TO A FRIEND X
Your Email has been sent.
You must add at least one tag to this diary before publishing it.

Add keywords that describe this diary. Separate multiple keywords with commas.
Tagging tips - Search For Tags - Browse For Tags

?

More Tagging tips:

A tag is a way to search for this diary. If someone is searching for "Barack Obama," is this a diary they'd be trying to find?

Use a person's full name, without any title. Senator Obama may become President Obama, and Michelle Obama might run for office.

If your diary covers an election or elected official, use election tags, which are generally the state abbreviation followed by the office. CA-01 is the first district House seat. CA-Sen covers both senate races. NY-GOV covers the New York governor's race.

Tags do not compound: that is, "education reform" is a completely different tag from "education". A tag like "reform" alone is probably not meaningful.

Consider if one or more of these tags fits your diary: Civil Rights, Community, Congress, Culture, Economy, Education, Elections, Energy, Environment, Health Care, International, Labor, Law, Media, Meta, National Security, Science, Transportation, or White House. If your diary is specific to a state, consider adding the state (California, Texas, etc). Keep in mind, though, that there are many wonderful and important diaries that don't fit in any of these tags. Don't worry if yours doesn't.

You can add a private note to this diary when hotlisting it:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from your hotlist?
Are you sure you want to remove your recommendation? You can only recommend a diary once, so you will not be able to re-recommend it afterwards.
Rescue this diary, and add a note:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from Rescue?
Choose where to republish this diary. The diary will be added to the queue for that group. Publish it from the queue to make it appear.

You must be a member of a group to use this feature.

Add a quick update to your diary without changing the diary itself:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary?
(The diary will be removed from the site and returned to your drafts for further editing.)
(The diary will be removed.)
Are you sure you want to save these changes to the published diary?

Comment Preferences

  •  Wonder how long (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Kinak, stevenaxelrod

    before the D-Trip starts targeting WI-01?

    Not sure why they wouldn't; after all, the incumbent's probably not going to be campaigning a whole lot there...

    28, white male, TX-26 (current), TN-09 (born), TN-08 (where parents live now)

    by TDDVandy on Wed Aug 15, 2012 at 05:05:34 AM PDT

    •  Honestly (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Kinak, thomask, stevenaxelrod

      With Paul Ryan on the ticket...I cannot imagine a lot of people voting for Barack Obama but turning around to vote for Ryan in the House race.  If Zerban wins Obama voters, especially the Obama/Walker crowd, he wins.  

      I currently have that race at Lean R.

      •  Yep. (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Kinak, thomask, stevenaxelrod

        Not to mention being on the Presidential ticket is inevitably going to drive up Ryan's negatives.

        At the very least, the D-Trip can make Ryan think he has a real race for his House seat and try to force him off the Presidential campaign trail a bit (or risk losing his seat.)

        28, white male, TX-26 (current), TN-09 (born), TN-08 (where parents live now)

        by TDDVandy on Wed Aug 15, 2012 at 06:09:07 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Remember 1988 (8+ / 0-)

        In Texas 60% voted for Bentsen for Senator
        43% voted for Bentsen for VP

        I suggest, sadly, there will be a similarly large number of crossover voters in WI-01.

        "I hope; therefore, I can live."
        For SSP users, see my Tips for Swingnuts diary

        by tietack on Wed Aug 15, 2012 at 06:14:29 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  How much of that margin (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          tietack

          was due to the factors discussed here?

          "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

          by bjssp on Wed Aug 15, 2012 at 06:42:29 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Would the margin have been larger (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            bjssp

            if Boutler didn't discuss the "Johnson Law"?

            Boulter tried to make an issue of Bentsen's use of the "Johnson Law," which allowed the senator to run for vice president while also seeking reelection to the Senate.
            Or did it even matter on the margins?

            "I hope; therefore, I can live."
            For SSP users, see my Tips for Swingnuts diary

            by tietack on Wed Aug 15, 2012 at 06:47:43 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Good question. (0+ / 0-)

              "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

              by bjssp on Wed Aug 15, 2012 at 06:51:25 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

      •  You mean with Paul Ryan on the ticket and (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        calvinshobbes

        increased voter turnout among conservatives in Wisconsin?  Seems like a silly year to go after Paul Ryan.  If the D-Trip is serious about trying to win the house back despite being outfunded they have to be smart with their money (Something we already know they won't be, blowing a million dollars on a sure thing to take credit in 2006/2008 seemed to happen too often)  Testing the waters to see if Paul Ryan's district is competitive can happen another year.  He hasn't done anything to piss off constituents and if you think everyone who votes for Obama is going to vote for Zerban, I'd like to remind you how Obama voters didn't vote for Scott Walker at all (Sarcasm).  How Paul Ryan being on the VP ticket makes it so there are no/few crossover voters on the house level is absurd.  

        •  A few relevant questions/points: (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Whitty, Mike Kahlow

          1. How high is turnout in the district already? Sensenbrenner's district for Republicans and Baldwin's for Democrats supposedly have the highest turnout of any House district in the country. (Take that, supposedly civic-minded Minnesota!) Is Ryan's similarly high? If so, there simply could be fewer people to tap, and perhaps on both sides.

          2. If both sides aren't equally competitive already, it's likely that we have the advantage, if only because people are already turning out to support Ryan. Generally speaking, incumbents tend to be closer to a ceiling that challengers.

          3. Much of this might be moot, since Ryan won't be in the district defending himself and working on his turnout operation. That task will fall to local Republican groups and Zerban himself. Here, too, we could have advantage, because as I've said many times, Ryan's attention is simply divided in multiple ways.

          4. I doubt this will be a campaign won on the airwaves, especially if Romney contests Wisconsin, which probably won't happen all the way through unless he's got a shit ton of money to burn. This is just a guess, but it seems like a waste, for any arm of the RNC, to run concurrent ads asking people to vote for him for both the House and as part of Romney's ticket. If I am right, it's a ground game race. Of course, that could work for the other side, since it hasn't been seriously contested.

          I don't know what OFA's presence in the state is like, but there's got to be something there--more than we'd see in, say, Missouri. Its main goal is to reelect Obama, but here, there's definitely a strong case for trying to integrate the GOTV effort. If that sort of thing happens, or if any arm of the DNC, or even Zerban's campaign itself, decides to focus like a laser on turnout, we'll probably be in good shape.

          5. Our attention can only be divided so many ways, and our resources are indeed finite, but if not now, when? Ryan can't focus on this race as much as Zerban can. He just can't. If he wins as VP, there will be a race to replace him. We could win that, but for some reason, I think we'd lose. And if we do, another Republican is an incumbent. In 2014, a one-term incumbent isn't as hard to beat as a multi-year incumbent, but it's not as easy as it might be now, with Ryan's attention divided. If Ryan loses as VP, we're back to square one, with him still as the incumbent, but without his attention divided.

          "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

          by bjssp on Wed Aug 15, 2012 at 06:34:08 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  Chapter 11 (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      uclabruin18

          Individuals don't file Chapter 11, corporations do. Maybe it was a family corporation that guaranteed the loan, but if it was Tarkanian and other family members as individuals, they would have to file either a Chapter 13 and commit all of their income above living expenses for the next 3-5 years to repayment, or file Chapter 7 and surrender all assets except those that can be exempted under federal or state law.

      •  Look at the whole saga... (0+ / 0-)

        Basically the guy got suckered by a crooked delevoper/bank tag team.

        Both have now gone bankrupt, the money is nowhere to be found, and now the FDIC is going after him as the only one still standing.  What makes it worse is that they try to finish off the whole extended family - parents, siblings, wife, children, you name it.

        To me this whole thing looks like a setup - the articles claim the bank went bankrupt because of the two loans. What kind of bank is that that goes bankrupt over some tiny $22m loss?

        The core problem seems to be that the FDIC has inherited the titles, but not the blame of malfeasance from the bankrupt bank; and so they can now go after the guy and don't have to respect any of his counterclaims.

        It's a perfect racket.

    •  Remember (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, sacman701

      Obama won the 1st with 51% of the vote. On that same exact ballot, Ryan won 64% of the vote. So what you're saying has already happened.

  •  Where's the Polling Wrap Up? (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ZedMont, askew, supercereal

    My favorite DKos Eklections feature and its been missing all week!

    A liberal knows that the only certainty in this life is change but believes that the change can be directed toward a constructive end.--Henry Wallace

    by 54cermak on Wed Aug 15, 2012 at 05:10:56 AM PDT

  •  Creationist Defeated (11+ / 0-)

    One good result last night was that a Creationist was defeated handily in the race for school board in Alachua County, Florida.

    Tea Bagger Jodi Wood placed third in a three person race.

    From his website:

    "Fact should be taught as fact.  Theory should be taught as theory.  Religion and other social belief should be left to the community.  Let’s educate our kids….."

    Yes, evolution is a "theory". You know what else is a theory, Mr. Wood?

    Gravity.

    Issue:  Evolution, creationism, intelligent design?

    •  Yep. (9+ / 0-)

      Gravity is only a theory.  That's why I'm floating in midair right now.

      28, white male, TX-26 (current), TN-09 (born), TN-08 (where parents live now)

      by TDDVandy on Wed Aug 15, 2012 at 05:19:25 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  thank for this tidbit.as a biologist little drives (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Kinak

      me over the edge more than teaching creationism in the schools or denial of the mountainous pile of evidence supporting evolution.

    •  So why is it called The Law of Gravity? (0+ / 0-)

      Maybe we should start referring to Evolution as The Law of Evolution.  If creationists aren't wild-eyed enough, that would probably send their collective blood pressure up into stroke territory.  

      "In this world of sin and sorrow there is always something to be thankful for; as for me, I rejoice that I am not a Republican." - H. L. Mencken

      by SueDe on Wed Aug 15, 2012 at 06:48:11 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Law vs. Theory (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        SueDe, LordMike

        Scientists no longer really use the term "law" after being burned too many times.

        "Theory" means that it has been tested over and over again, and has been proved beyond a reasonable doubt.

        "Law" implies absolute unquestionable dogmatic fact. After the "Newtonian Laws of Physics" were disproved, scientists just do not give out the term anymore.

      •  Newton called it a law (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        SueDe, LordMike

        because at the time it described everything we knew and was amazingly accurate.   ...until a Mr. Albert Einstein came along.

        Einstein's theory of relatively not only demonstrates instances where Newton's law fails, but accurately calculates gravitational effects in those instances.

        Effectively, unless you are dealing with things as large as Black Holes, the combined mass of the entire universe,  the forces at the center of the sun OR as small as sub-atomic particles and quantum mechanics, Newton is spot-on and all you need.

        In those specific cases where Newton's law fails, Einstein's theory picks up the slack.

        We do not yet have a theory or law that would fit in all situations.  The Unified Field Theory and the broader Grand Unified Theory are hot-topics in academic physics.  Scholars do think they are possible, but our weak mortal brains have not figured them out yet.

        Красота спасет мир --F. Dostoevsky

        by Wisper on Wed Aug 15, 2012 at 08:14:27 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Hawaii Civil Beat poll tries to explain what went (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    tietack, Kinak, itskevin

    wrong in the senate race.

    http://www.civilbeat.com/...

    “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

    by Paleo on Wed Aug 15, 2012 at 05:21:51 AM PDT

    •  I think they explain it well (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Kinak, itskevin, askew
      That's because the voice used in Civil Beat's poll might have inadvertently created what's known in the industry as a "social desirability bias" where poll respondents feel pressured to give answers they believe are socially acceptable.
      snip
      "That impact could be seen more strongly among Asian respondents than among Caucasians," Shavitt said. "It's entirely plausible"
      Merriman used the voice of a Caucasian woman from Ohio... Civil Beat is mulling over using the voice of a local in their next automated poll... there's a hypothesis that Ward does somewhat better as they make sure their callers know how to pronounce names like "Hanabusa" and "Inouye".

      Levine also notes past polls from Merriman: the reelection of Inouye and Hirono in '10 over haoles which understated their margins by like 22 points, as well as Hanabusa's win over Djou, where the final poll understated Hanabusa's margin by about 4.

      So if Merriman uses a Caucasian for its final robo poll for Hirono-Lingle, and they're tied, expect at least a 60-40 win for Hirono. (I expect more like a 30 point margin.)

      "I hope; therefore, I can live."
      For SSP users, see my Tips for Swingnuts diary

      by tietack on Wed Aug 15, 2012 at 06:12:29 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I think CB's explanation was only partial. (0+ / 0-)

        They underplay the fact that their sample had a higher number of Caucasian participants than the competing poll and a lower number of Japanese-Americans and voters of Asian ancestry. This disparity could help explain why Case did better in the CB poll than in actual voting, and Hirono did worse. It would be helpful to know the actual ethnic make-up of the voters on voting day. It's also relevant that the poll was relatively stale. This is not to say that the article doesn't make a valuable point about the perceived ethnicity of the voice of the robo-caller. It's just to say that other possible causes of the error were underemphasized.

  •  YouGov internet poll: Obama 47-44 (10+ / 0-)

    “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

    by Paleo on Wed Aug 15, 2012 at 05:32:55 AM PDT

  •  The only Mike Pence ad I've seen is him talking (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Kinak

    about the troops and how wonderful they are.

    That's it.

    "Nothing in all the world is more dangerous than sincere ignorance and conscientious stupidity." --M. L. King "You can't fix stupid" --Ron White -6.00, -5.18

    by zenbassoon on Wed Aug 15, 2012 at 05:43:29 AM PDT

  •  if i see these guys, i know i'm going to jail (0+ / 0-)

    josh nassi, robert braddock and ray soucy better hope and pray they never cross my path. i'll go monkey ass on them.

    soucy's sentencing hearing is scheduled for october 16. i'm gonna wear a red dress.

    so that's what i think about what last night in ct-05.

    "...i also also want a legally binding apology." -George Rockwell

    by thankgodforairamerica on Wed Aug 15, 2012 at 06:04:25 AM PDT

  •  Some humor to start the day (0+ / 0-)

    looks like when he was young, Obama wanted to grow up to be Art Vandelay:

    I thought about being an architect, because I liked the idea of building buildings, and designing buildings

    link

  •  It couldn't have happened to a nicer POS (0+ / 0-)

    Danny Tarkanian's idiotic Fire! Ready! Aim! attack on his African-American opponent is his character, intelligence, and a warning of things to come if he get's elected all in a nutshell.

    My daddy coached UNLV once. He coached black people.
    Um. Did I mention that I played basketball at UNLV?
    I played basketball with black people when I was there!
    I played with black people, so, Congress. Me. NV-4. Done.
    What don't you get? Let me spell it out for you again.
    Basketball camp. I have one.
    Black people? Basketball camp? Me?
    There you go. Danny Tarkanian in 2012. Me.
    Hell, I rock and roll all night long to help the blacks.
    Not like that... whatshisface guy.
    The one who's just pretending to be black.
    That guy. Him. Whatshisname. My opponent.
    Wait. What? Why are you shouting?
    He's what?
    Oh, HE'S black?
    Really?
    Because I have to tell you, that's not a black people name.
    Why are you shouting and waving your arms around?
    Stop it. He's not black. I'm not going to get into trouble.
    Jon Ralston can suck my ass. I'm not scared of him.
    Fucking "Newspaper guy".
    "Horsford"??? Please.
    I'm fine. No way he's a black guy.
    You must be wrong about that.
    No way. No. You are full of shit. No way.
    Stop waving your arms around and telling me to shut up!
    "Horsford"??? That sounds... Swedish or something.
    Um. Danish. Norway-gian? Norway-i-yan? Norwayish?
    Wow. So, you have a picture of my opponent?
    Well. Whattaknow. There he is. Son of a bitch. Wow.
    With a name like Horsford? Wow, he's really a black guy?
    Huh.
    Um, see, the thing is... well, I played basketball.
    With black people.
    My dad is famous. He coached UNLV! With black people.
    I like... the blacks.
    And.
    Wow. It is hot in Nevada in August, isn't it?
    UNLV. My dad.
    Um. So. You aren't going to say this is a racist thing? Right? C'mon. I'm Danny Tark the Lil' Shark.
    Basketball. I-I played Basketball with those people.
    Y'know?
    What! What is wrong with saying 'those people'?
    It's offensive? Seriously?? Since when?!?!
    Fuck.
    (sigh)
    HOLY SHIT! WHAT IS THAT OVER THERE!
    (Runs away. Shouting over his shoulder as he goes.)
    VOTE DANNY TARKANIAN!!!!!!

    Yeah. Ready to Lead on day one.

    This is probably the best thing that could have happened to African-American voters in the NV-4.

    I am from the Elizabeth Warren and Darcy Burner wing of the Democratic Party

    by LeftHandedMan on Wed Aug 15, 2012 at 06:16:21 AM PDT

    •  And yes, I realize that this is really really (0+ / 0-)

      meanspirited and unfair, but... Sharron Angle.

      That's my get out of getting a dirty look from Kevin Drum for being mean to a Teahadi and kicking him with a completely and totally unfair fictional dramatization of him when he's down card.

      I am from the Elizabeth Warren and Darcy Burner wing of the Democratic Party

      by LeftHandedMan on Wed Aug 15, 2012 at 06:21:57 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  I can not speak for Nevada, (0+ / 0-)

    but if Tarkanian was running in the South, the problem with his court verdict and impending financial insolvency would be no barrier to election.  All he would have to do would be to remind voters, "My opponent is black, and I'm not."

    "In this world of sin and sorrow there is always something to be thankful for; as for me, I rejoice that I am not a Republican." - H. L. Mencken

    by SueDe on Wed Aug 15, 2012 at 06:33:24 AM PDT

  •  Judge will NOT halt PA ID law (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, askew, davehouck

    ACLU will appeal. This wasnt a ruling on the merits.

    Not good news, but I also feel like OFA has been preparing for this.

    •  I think what's happening in Ohio (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      stevenaxelrod

      is even more outrageous and blatant. The Times editorial board isn't properly outraged, or so I think, but I guess calling Ohio Republicans a bunch of fucking scumbag asshole pieces of shit that deserve to be pushed down a flight of stairs, while entirely appropriate, wasn't to be expected. Oh well.

      "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

      by bjssp on Wed Aug 15, 2012 at 06:54:09 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Actually, I take that back. (0+ / 0-)

        It's not as outrageous, in a pure comparison, because these people in Ohio aren't being prevented from voting in the same way those in Pennsylvania are. It's still bullshit, just less slightly less offensive bullshit.

        "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

        by bjssp on Wed Aug 15, 2012 at 07:02:21 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Link (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike

      http://www.washingtonpost.com/...

      It's not clear how far along the trial itself is.

      “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

      by Paleo on Wed Aug 15, 2012 at 07:00:49 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  NY 27: R poll has Collins up 47-34 (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32

    http://www.buffalonews.com/...

    Article states that Siena will be releasing a poll Sunday on the race,

    “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

    by Paleo on Wed Aug 15, 2012 at 06:56:02 AM PDT

  •  Ann Romney again says no more tax returns (6+ / 0-)

    will be released.

    But there's nothing to hide. They are just hiding it because it will give opponents something to talk about. Which is nothing. Because they have nothing to hide. So they wont release the returns.

    link.

  •  ras holding firm Romney up 4 (4+ / 0-)

    The guy has amazing nerve. Every poll has Obama up minus the lousy Gallup daily tracker. He is even spinning Ryan as a positive. I think this year he may go down with the right wing ship!
    Also after PPP showed Obama up 3 in Ohio I predicted he would show a tie and of course that what he did.

    •  Obama's decent lead with Indies in OH & NH (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      pademocrat

      yesterday plus Mitt and the Twit's unfavs makes Scotty's dailies look like the utter shite they are...

      "Never trust a man who, when left alone with a tea cosy, doesn't try it on!!"

      by EcosseNJ on Wed Aug 15, 2012 at 07:37:41 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  The problem with Rasmussen has always (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        EcosseNJ, pademocrat

        been that he consistently has Obama's approval higher than his standing in the head to head. Today it's approval at 47%, but only getting 43%. That just doesnt make sense.

        •  Especially because he has the balls to state (0+ / 0-)

          The president's job approval will likely reflect his share of the vote on election day. He says that in every national release. Yet almost every day there is a significant gap like this. Note he also says today that if you include leaners the 4 point margin gets wider. So how the hell are they tied in Ohio?

          "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

          by conspiracy on Wed Aug 15, 2012 at 09:07:19 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  Worse.. (0+ / 0-)

      Ras released a poll showing OH-SEN tied.  Everyone else has Brown up by double digits despite all the right-wing money being pored into the state, but Ras churns up numbers for his overlords showing the race a dead heat.

      Sad....

      Красота спасет мир --F. Dostoevsky

      by Wisper on Wed Aug 15, 2012 at 08:18:01 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Tarkanian said no such thing (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    newinfluence, David in NY, pademocrat

    I mean, really.  This is Romney-like bullshit and beneath this site.  And I say that as someone who wishes we would call the GOP the slimebags that they are.

    •  I hear it as bad for a different reason (0+ / 0-)

      I agree he didn't say that his opponent pretends to be black. It's less-than-artfully said, but is really no different than any of a hundred faux-outrage instances the GOP has pounced on.

      But he is saying that people will vote for Horsford simply because he is. And furthermore, if people would just look past Horsford's race, they'd notice that Tark understands black folk because, you know, basketball.

      "Mitt Romney isn't a vulture capitalist: vultures only eat things that are dead." -S. Colbert

      by newinfluence on Wed Aug 15, 2012 at 07:37:48 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I sort of agree (0+ / 0-)

      He wasnt talking about Horsford pretending to be black, but saying he(Tarkanian) shouldnt pretend to be black.

      It was a clumsy statement that could probably be read either way, bu I dont think his intent was to accuse Horsford of not being black.  

    •  Why did he even need to bring race up? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      stevenaxelrod

      Just because he's running against a black candidate doesn't mean he needed to bring race up. He initially suggested he could connect with the black community because of basketball, which was stupid in itself. Tarkanian brought a racial element into the race that was completely unnecessary.

      26, Male, CA-24 (new CA-26), DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

      by DrPhillips on Wed Aug 15, 2012 at 08:09:50 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  His incompetence isn't surprising (0+ / 0-)

        This is the guy who couldn't beat Sharrrrrrrrrrron Angle and Ms. Chickens-for-Health-Coverage in a primary to take on the highly vulnerable Harry Reid.  Though I suspect that if he had, then the general election would most likely turned out the same as it ultimately did from what we're seeing.

        36, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

        by Mike in MD on Wed Aug 15, 2012 at 09:01:51 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Thanks for calling BS (0+ / 0-)

      on the "pretending to be black" nonsense.  He never said his opponent was pretending to be black, and I think it hurts the site's credibility to claim that he did.

      There's plenty of actual outrageous stuff the Republicans are saying.  We, unlike Republicans, do not need to resort to faux, that is false, outrages.  

      Just cut it out.

  •  excellent link on 17th amendment push (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike

    I wonder how much of the effort is in the GOP "states rights" vein and how much is really in a power grab for the Senate.

    With GOP controlling state legislatures and gov seats now 3:2, it fits as part of their overall strategy of voter suppression, citizens united, etc.

    Not to mention that anytime voters lose direct power in the fed government, Republicans are likely to gain more than the Dems.

    I'm not liberal. I'm actually just anti-evil, OK? - Elon James White

    by Satya1 on Wed Aug 15, 2012 at 08:28:28 AM PDT

  •  Anyone know what the polls or odds (0+ / 0-)

    currently are in the Illinois House contests.  I'm trying to figure out where my time and money might be most effective.  I would give more to Duckworth, but I rather think she has it easier than some of the others.  So many people hate Walsh.

    I'm not liberal. I'm actually just anti-evil, OK? - Elon James White

    by Satya1 on Wed Aug 15, 2012 at 08:30:19 AM PDT

    •  Gill (6+ / 0-)

      If you're going to help only one of them, Gill is the most likely to lose. Duckworth is a shoo-in. Foster and Schneider look like strong favorites, and Bustos should also win although Schilling did throw out that one internal showing him ahead. Enyart should be able to beat Plummer, who looks like a really weak candidate. That leaves Gill, who unlike Enyart is running in a district that has mostly been represented by Republicans in the past.

      SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

      by sacman701 on Wed Aug 15, 2012 at 08:50:26 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  That would be my resume (0+ / 0-)

      IL-08
      PVI: D+9
      Democratic candidate strenght: OK
      Fundrasing: D lead
      Polls: ---

      IL-11
      PVI: D+8
      Democratic candidate strenght: OK
      Fundraising: Little disadvantage
      Polls: ---

      IL-13
      PVI: D+2
      Democratic candidate strength: OK
      Fundraising: Little disadvantage
      Polls: +1.33% for D (+10% D poll, -12% R poll, +6% D poll)

      IL-10
      PVI: D+10
      Democratic candidate strength: A little weak
      Fundraising: Disadvantage
      Polls: = 0.00% for D (=0% D poll)

      IL-12
      PVI: D+2
      Democratic candidate strength: OK
      Fundraising: Disadvantage
      Polls: -14.00% for D (-11% R poll, -17% R poll)

      IL-17
      PVI: D+7
      Democratic candidate strength: A little weak
      Fundraising: Disadvantage
      Polls: -16.00% for D (-16% R poll)

      First thank you for the help for these seats. Like you can see it is necessary some help here. The most solid Democratic prospect is in IL-08, that seems not to need the help.

      I think all the rest are competitive and winnable, despite some bad polls from Republican sources (basically internals). But not easily.

      This link will help you with more concrete data about the money of every candidate in all these seats:

      http://www.thegreenpapers.com/...

      My advice would be you share out your money amongst all except IL-08. All the rest need it.

Subscribe or Donate to support Daily Kos.

Click here for the mobile view of the site