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Leading Off:

MI-11: The race for ex-Rep. Thad McCotter's now-vacant House seat must be setting off Geiger counters, because it seems neither major party wants to touch the candidates they've nominated. I don't know what the D-Trip's beef with Syed Taj is, but he's notably been left off even their broadest lists (like "DCCC robocalls target 50 Republicans over Medicare" or what have you). Kerry Bentivolio, though, keeps turning even more toxic by the day:

On the first day of school last year, Kerry Bentivolio told students in his English class at Fowlerville High School that he had one goal: to make each one of them cry at least once.

Bentivolio, now the Republican candidate in Michigan's 11th Congressional District—which includes western Wayne and Oakland counties—also told the students that they were "just a paycheck to me," according to a description of incidents in his personnel file.

Much, much more at the link, including the fact that Bentivolio was reprimanded for "intimidating and threatening students by grabbing their desks and yelling in their faces or for slamming his fists on their desks" and then later claimed that the allegations were false and "politically motivated." The saga (which lasted throughout the school year) ended in June with Bentivolio's resignation under pressure. You'd think with a record like this, it'd be worth the Democrats' trouble to try to steal a win here, no? (h/t: RBH)

Senate:

CT-Sen: Rasmussen: Chris Murphy (D): 46, Linda McMahon (R): 49.

MT-Sen: The DSCC's second Montana ad uses a notorious clip of wealthy GOP Rep. Denny Rehberg saying his family's been "struggling like everyone else" as a hook to attacking him for voting to raise his own pay five times, and voting against a minimum wage increase 10 times. (According to his personal financial disclosure forms, Rehberg's net worth is likely into the eight figures.)

MT-Sen: Rasmussen: Jon Tester (D-inc): 43 (47), Denny Rehberg (R): 47 (49).

NV-, ND-Sen: The conservative American Future Fund's new Nevada ad hits Dem Rep. Shelley Berkley on a familiar theme, ethical issues regarding the kidney transplant center she saved. AFF also has another spot going after Heidi Heitkamp for supporting Obamacare. Politico sez the Nevada buy is for $472K, North Dakota for $163K.

WI-Sen: The first two polls of Wisconsin's Senate race after last week's primary both show Republican Tommy Thompson leading Democrat Tammy Baldwin. PPP has Thompson up by 5, while Marquette has Thompson up by 9—but it was actually PPP, not Marquette, which saw Mitt Romney doing better in the presidential race. Click through for all the numbers, as well as our full analysis, at Daily Kos Elections. (David Jarman)

WI-Sen: I like this new Tammy Baldwin ad a lot. The spot hammers Republican ex-Gov. Tommy Thompson over his refusal to release his tax returns, using recent footage of Thompson barking "N-O" at reporters who dared to ask for them. EMILY's List is also running a new ad that also features clips of Thompson—and remarkably, they're from one of Thompson's own commercials! You may remember that ridiculous spot Thompson ran during the primary featuring his own bad self riding a motorcycle—well, that's exactly what EMILY uses, in portraying Thompson as a pol who "left Wisconsin" (on his chopper, natch) and went Washington. EMILY's ad is backed by a hefty $652K buy.

Gubernatorial:

IN-Gov: LOVE this new ad from Democrat John Gregg ("the guy with two first names running for governor"), which features him down at "Carol's Clip 'n' Curl beauty shop" explaining that the women there "don't wanna hear anymore from Mike Pence." Hilariously, the customers are all having their hair dried under those giant, old-school blowers, so they can't hear a word Gregg says even when he yells at them, "Right, ladies?"—and then, later, "Right, MOM?" Gregg cites Pence's votes against equal pay for women and, interestingly, his vote to defund Planned Parenthood for breast cancer screenings, which is not necessarily the sort of message you'd expect to see in a state this red. Gregg stage whispers at the end, "They don't wanna hear about it again!" One of my favorite ads so far this cycle, no question.

MT-Gov: A DGA front group called Montana Jobs, Education and Technology PAC (JET PAC, har har) is out with a new ad slamming Republican ex-Rep. Rick Hill as a lobbyist, DC insider, and insurance industry exec—an encapsulation of all the reasons that make him "wrong for Montana." No word on the size of the buy, but the DGA recently seeded JET PAC's coffers with half a million bucks.

House:

AZ-02: Republican Martha McSally's new internal poll (from OnMessage) strikes me as nothing but awful news for her. If you just looked at the margin and saw that Dem Rep. Ron Barber leads her by five points, you might think she has a shot. The problem—and it's a serious one—is that Barber's at 50 and she's at 45. So even if this poll is accurate, how is she supposed to win with only 5% undecided and the incumbent already at 50? And if anything, these numbers are probably tilted toward here—there are no presidential toplines to offer a sanity check. The real tell will be whether the NRCC or other outside GOP groups spend here, but I suspect they can read a poll better than McSally can.

AZ-06: National Horizon really seems to enjoy tweaking GOP Rep. Ben Quayle in exactly the way you'd want to, too, if you had your own super PAC. Their latest ad mocks him as a "lightweight" for repeatedly mis-stating the size of the annual federal budget, then finishes with a flourish that any fans of Quayle's pops will surely enjoy. Quayle's buddies are also helping him out, though: Friends of the Majority is throwing in another $230K on ads attacking his primary opponent, Rep. David Schweikert. All told, the group has spent almost $600K on his behalf.

AZ-09: With the primary less than a week away, EMILY's List is coming in with a tiny, last-minute TV buy for Democrat Kyrsten Sinema. They actually spent more on production costs—$17K—than on broadcasting it (just $14K). Considering that the ad, a generic positive spot, uses nothing but still photos and title cards that look like they were generated in WordPad, I don't really understand why it cost so much, either.

In other primary news, Sinema—for the first time publicly, I believe—is accusing opponent Andrei Cherny of engaging in a whisper-type smear campaign regarding her sexuality. (Sinema is bisexual.) Sinema, however, didn't offer anything in the way of proof or corroboration, and Cherny denies the allegations. On a more meta level, I have to wonder why she'd bring something like this up so late in the game, especially given its potential to backfire. (Lots of Cherny supporters rushed to his defense over the charges.) Does it mean the race is tight?

FL-26: The "Lamar!" story just keeps getting crazier:

Fueled with $43,000 in secret money, Republican Rep. David Rivera helped run a shadow campaign that might have broken federal laws in last week's Democratic primary against his political nemesis Joe Garcia, according to campaign sources and finance records.

As part of the effort, a political unknown named Justin Lamar Sternad campaigned against Garcia by running a sophisticated mail campaign that Rivera helped orchestrate and fund, campaign vendors said.

Among the revelations: The mailers were often paid in envelopes stuffed with crisp hundred-dollar bills.

Rivera and Sternad have denied working together in his campaign, which ended Aug. 14. But Hugh Cochran, president of Campaign Data, told The Herald this week that Rivera contacted him in July and requested he create a list of voters who were ultimately targeted in the 11 mailers sent by Sternad's campaign.

"David hired me to run the data," said Cochran, who is a retired FBI agent.

Much, much more at the link—and props to the Miami Herald for staying on top of this. I suppose I shouldn't be amazed that Rivera would try something so manifestly corrupt, given what a scumbag he is. But given all the ethical scrutiny he's been under, you'd think he'd at least try to avoid any more shadiness for a little while. It's remarkable that he just can't stop himself.

GA-12: Tuesday night's Republican runoff in Georgia's 12th Congressional District was ultra-tight, with state Rep. Lee Anderson edging businessman Rick Allen 50.3% to 49.7%, or just 154 votes. However, the final tally is not yet certified, and a recount is possible if the margin remains under 1%. Allen's campaign says that "all options are open." Dem Rep. John Barrow is obviously hoping for a bitter, protracted recount. (Meanwhile, in the GA-09 GOP runoff, state Rep. Doug Collins defeated radio host Martha Zoller 55-45; he'll cruise in November.)

IA-03: The American Association of Orthopaedic Surgeons (no, I have no idea why they go for the treasonous British spelling) is making their first foray into the independent expenditure world this cycle, with $50K worth of radio ads on behalf of GOP Rep. Tom Latham. Latham is locked in an incumbent-vs.-incumbent battle with Dem Rep. Leonard Boswell, and before entering politics he was a businessman, so it's not clear why a bunch of orthopedists are interested in him. Indeed, they didn't make any IEs at all last cycle, so it's hard to say what their proclivities are.

IA-04: GOP Rep. Steve King is feeling the heat. A day after claiming he'd never heard of young victims of statutory rape or incest becoming pregnant, he's lashing out, saying: "I never said, nor do I believe, a woman, including minors, cannot get pregnant from rape, statutory rape or incest. Suggesting otherwise is ridiculous, shameful, disgusting and nothing but an attempt to falsely define who I am."

But King being King, he's landed himself in some more hot water. The trackers at CREDO scored a nice bit of footage at a recent town hall King conducted. Here's a key excerpt:

King, who recently sponsored a bill to make English the national language, launched into an extended rant on the perils of multiculturalism—which was only reinforced by a visit to Iowa State University, where he says he encountered 59 different student groups rooted in the idea. Merlin's pants! As he put it, "It started with Asians and it ended with Zeitgeist. So from A to Z. And most of them were victims groups, victimology, people that feel sorry for themselves. And they're out there recruiting our young people to be part of the group that feels sorry for themselves."
IL-08: I hope there's more where this came from. I mean, who do you want defending you, even in backhanded fashion, more than Joe Walsh?
"What he said was offensive, insulting and wrong, but I'm bothered by this rush to pile on," Walsh said. "And I'm bothered by the silence of members of our own party to stand up for him."
But actually, I think I might like this quote from another Illinois Republican, Rep. Peter Roskam, even more:
"There's nobody who is saying Todd Akin is unworthy to serve," Roskam said. "There is no one saying he is immoral or incapable. He's not; he made a poor decision. The question is: Can he win in November? … This is an election about a generational change. If we squander this one opportunity we have, we will all look back and say: 'Oh, if only.' "
Roskam is flat-out admitting that the GOP doesn't care about Akin's beliefs, just whether he can win. Of course, we all knew this, but it's always revealing when the other side actually cops to pure expediency.

IL-12: The pro-Republican New Prosperity Foundation, which had spent money attacking pretty much every Democrat in a competitive House race in Illinois, has finally targeted the one guy they'd previously left untouched, retired Maj. Gen. Bill Enyart. They're hitting him with $61K in TV ads.

IN-02: In a new TV ad, A fellow soldier of Democrat Brendan Mullen, an Iraq vet, praises his courage and excoriates Republican Jackie Walorski for "smearing" Mullen, calling her "downright un-American." It's a response to this new, cheaply-produced Walorski spot which attacks Mullen as a "DC insider" who was recruited by "liberals." Interesting that Walorski, who should have all the advantages here, feels the need to go negative so early.

MI-01, NC-07: The DCCC just filed small re-ups of its first two ads, for $31K and $36K in MI-01 and NC-07, respectively. That roughly doubles their buy in each district.

MO-02: Just a thought: If Ann Wagner, the GOP nominee in Todd Akin's old 2nd District, were to swap places with Akin and let him run for his old seat while she took up the Senate mantle, Democrats would also have a shot at switching candidates in the 2nd, too. Right now, Some Dude Glenn Koenen looks to have the nomination (believe it or not, his Some Other Dude opponent is actually seeking a recount), but perhaps he could be persuaded to step aside for a stronger Democrat, like Rep. Russ Carnahan. Okay, I did say "stronger," so maybe former state Rep. Sam Page? This suburban/exurban district is quite conservative, though it got slightly less so in redistricting, becoming a 53-46 McCain seat (down from 55-44). Those 2008 Obama numbers are definitely a Democratic high-water mark, but with Akin running, anything would be possible.

NY-11: The AFL-CIO just issued endorsements in 24 of  New York's 27 congressional races, but one omission really stands out: They're refusing to get behind Democrat Mark Murphy because a number of their member unions are supporting GOP freshman Mike Grimm. (All of their other endorsements have gone to Dems.) I'm sort of amazed anyone would want to stand with Grimm when his career stands at the precipice; indeed, the Grimm campaign's persecution fantasies have reached hallucinatory new heights, with de facto spokesman Guy Molinari accusing Chuck Schumer of "calling up" Eric Holder and asking him to sic the FBI on Grimm. Is this a guy labor really wants to see remain in office?

NY-27: Some nice work by Dem Rep. Kathy Hochul: She responded to a new negative ad from Republican Chris Collins so quickly that Collins hadn't even blasted the spot out to his full press list yet. The ad is actually a compare-and-contrast, with Collins taking credit for creating jobs while deploying generic attacks against Hochul. But Hochul was able to slam Collins because, after buying a plate manufacturing plant in upstate New York back in 2004, he "cut the work force by a third, reduced wages and benefits and ousted the union," according to a news report at the time.

PA-12: The pro-Dem House Majority PAC's new ad targets "millionaire Wall Street lawyer Keith Rothfus" because he "represented a Wall Street bank that received a bailout from taxpayers." HMP doesn't appear to have filed an IE report yet, though.

RI-01: In his newest ad, Dem Rep. David Cicilline complains that we've spent "billions of dollars building roads, bridges, and more"—in Afghanistan and Iraq, instead of in the U.S., which is where he'd like to see us "start rebuilding."

Grab Bag:

AFP: The Koch brothers' Americans for Prosperity says it's launching a round of ads in five different Senate races worth $2.7 million in total. Their spot attacking Democrat Tammy Baldwin is available at the link; the actors they found to read their boring "stop wasteful spending" script are comically stiff and inauthentic. Their ads against Tim Kaine and Shelley Berkley are very similar. The airwaves in Indiana and New Mexico are reportedly the next two lucky victims.

Maps: Here's a terrifying animated map of the growth of Walmart (and their kid cousin, Sam's Club), from 1970 to present. If you zoom in on the New York City area, you'll see that we are still Walmart-free, though the company has long been trying to break in here.

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Thu Aug 23, 2012 at 05:00 AM PDT.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  PA-12...I don't understand that ad (0+ / 0-)

    Our party supported the bailout of Wall Street banks.

    Mitt Romney '12: Berlusconi without the sex and alcohol!

    by Rich in PA on Thu Aug 23, 2012 at 05:08:06 AM PDT

  •  Looks like the new NYT/Q-poll results are up (15+ / 0-)

    State Obama/Romney

    FL      49/46

    OH     50/44

    WI     49/47

    LV, 8/15-21

    Not bad, overall.

    Ok, so I read the polls.

    by andgarden on Thu Aug 23, 2012 at 05:13:24 AM PDT

    •  Would I trade WI for FL? (7+ / 0-)

      Not an exchange I love to entertain, but yes, I would. Romney simply can't win without Florida.

      Ok, so I read the polls.

      by andgarden on Thu Aug 23, 2012 at 05:17:59 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I Think It's High Time For OFA.... (6+ / 0-)

      ....to hit the airwaves in the Badger State.  Otherwise, very impressive.

      •  Considering how long this poll was in the field, (5+ / 0-)

        I think you might be right.

        Ok, so I read the polls.

        by andgarden on Thu Aug 23, 2012 at 05:33:30 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Nope (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          LordMike, itskevin, stevenaxelrod

          Romney's not on the air, either.  He would be, if his own numbers were showing this.  In fact he'd be more anxious to get on the air in Wisconsin because OFA isn't, since if he's surging and he would have the airwaves to himself for awhile, he would surge ahead because of it.  He would air ads featuring Ryan particularly, if Ryan's favorables are this good.  But he's not doing any of this...because his numbers aren't showing this.

          Both sides' private polling so far isn't showing this.

          We've gone through this a lot lately, first in 2010 and again this year, with a spate of polls in a given race in a given state saying things that are counterintuitive.  And the counterintuitive polls have been consistently wrong.

          44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Thu Aug 23, 2012 at 06:05:01 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Frankly, that's a pretty thin reed (6+ / 0-)

            Campaigns can take a long time to turn around on their media buys.

            WI may shake out differently, but at a minimum, the polling indicates that it has tightened considerably.

            Ok, so I read the polls.

            by andgarden on Thu Aug 23, 2012 at 06:13:40 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  I think both sides may (7+ / 0-)

              be seeing some tightening, but both may recognize it is likely a temporary bump.  No spending by either campaign here ever, and it has been two weeks since the Ryan selection and who knows how many weeks since Romney knew he would be the pick.  I'll believe it when I see it.

              White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "Who let the dogs out? Who? Who?" - Mitt Romney, MLK Day 2008.

              by spiderdem on Thu Aug 23, 2012 at 06:22:44 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  The problem with your hypothesis is... (5+ / 0-)

                ...Romney currently is losing the election and knows it, and if there's a bump in Wisconsin (or anywhere else), he needs to make it stick.

                If you're winning, you can stall, you can hope a bump subsides.

                If you're losing, and you get a bump in a state that you were previously on track to lose, you need to take action to make it stick.

                And since any bump now obviously is because of Ryan, you at least go ahead and run a soft bio ad, hell maybe featuring Ryan instead of Romney even though that's unorthodox......but you run a damn ad, with real points behind it.

                To me, next week is the "tell."  If Romney doesn't make an ad buy for Wisconsin next week, or announce one for the week after that, then this is all a fiction.

                44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                by DCCyclone on Thu Aug 23, 2012 at 09:15:30 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  Probably right (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  DCCyclone, stevenaxelrod

                  especially given the vastness of Romney's resources.  I suppose it depends on the size of the bump and where the internals were before it occurred, assuming it occurred.

                  White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "Who let the dogs out? Who? Who?" - Mitt Romney, MLK Day 2008.

                  by spiderdem on Thu Aug 23, 2012 at 09:36:05 AM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  Here's one more HUGE point...... (6+ / 0-)

                    One week from tonight, Romney becomes the official GOP nominee.  A week from tomorrow, he can spend all his general election dollars (unavailable before he's the official nominee) and open the spigot totally.

                    If he's not spending in Wisconsin the week of Labor Day, then these public polls showing "tightening" were exaggerated.

                    44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                    by DCCyclone on Thu Aug 23, 2012 at 09:40:39 AM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                •  I'm waiting eagerly to see what happens. (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  DCCyclone

                  "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

                  by bjssp on Thu Aug 23, 2012 at 10:19:59 AM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

            •  yup, have to agree (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              Mark27, LordMike, aamail6

              Tracking where campaign money is currently going is certainly one important indicator of the state of the race, but it can't be the only one. Unlike in Michigan we're not talking about the odd outlier with whacky internals. Even if you exclude Rasmussen the 4 recent polls of WI by respected pollsters show an average Obama lead of just 2 points. That makes a strong case that the race is very close right now.

              You can make the case that OFA should wait for Romney to make the first move in WI, I have no problem with that, but I would be really amazed if Romney doesn't make a play for it. You could even just about make a case for him spending money there even if his internals are showing a less close race than the public polls. There is such a thing in marketing as a "loss leader", and Romney and backers have sufficient cash on hand that it  is worth them appearing to expand the map even if they don't believe they'll ultimately be successful in the targeted state, because: a) it drives narrative. Media organisations will pick up on it as a sign of the Romney campaign's confidence. DCCyclone will pick up on it. Republicans will be encouraged. Democrats will be worried. b) It will force the Obama campaign to respond, and may divert some of its attention and resources from other key states. If you have a money advantage, as Romney appears to have, you should do your best to bleed your opponent dry.

              •  Question is, did Romney intend (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                wishingwell, DCCyclone

                to compete in Wisconsin the whole time? If his money advantage will keep up, why wouldn't he do so?

                "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

                by bjssp on Thu Aug 23, 2012 at 06:44:38 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  he could be waiting until after the conventions (0+ / 0-)

                  that is always an important inflection point in the campaign.

                  •  It's not an inflection point anymore because... (6+ / 0-)

                    ...neither side is taking public financing.

                    It was an inflection point in the past when one or both candidates took public money, which they couldn't get or use until post-convention.  So of course the convention is an inflection point, you go from broke to flush overnight!

                    That's not true anymore, this is the first time no candidate is taking public money.

                    And that means neither candidate is waiting to decide on the map.  They've already decided, with tweaks to add states possible but not likely.

                    There are real and dire opportunity costs that these campaigns are considering, too, before they try to expand the map.  A dollar in Wisconsin is a dollar not spent in Ohio or Florida, and that matters.  And it matters more for Romney than Obama because Romney is clearly losing and knows it.  So going after Wisconsin is very risky.  But if these recent polls were right, then Wisconsin is just as close as states where he's spending millions every week.......which tells me private polling says it's not quite this close.

                    44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                    by DCCyclone on Thu Aug 23, 2012 at 07:38:21 AM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

              •  You don't remember Michigan correctly (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                orlbucfan

                Michigan didn't have odd outliers saying it was close, it was almost all the polls that said it was a tossup a few months ago.  In fact only PPP and, ironically, Rasmussen had Obama up by more than a couple points, while everyone else over FIVE months said anything from Romney+2 to Obama+5.  Three of them had Romney up, a couple more said Obama+1, and 3 more had Obama up 4 or 5...all these were margin-of-error.

                The Wisconsin polls are actually fewer than Michigan in saying this.

                Wisconsin isn't a blowout, definitely not a double-digit lead, but neither is it this tight if both campagins aren't running any ads there.

                Your point about Romney running ads there is right insofar as he has reason to do so if it's really tightening this much.  We'll see if he does next week, or the week after.  If not, then this "bump" is a fiction.  And I bet he doesn't.

                And yes his support groups are running ads, but they did before, too.  And again, OFA and Dem support groups haven't run any ads in Wisconsin, ever.

                44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                by DCCyclone on Thu Aug 23, 2012 at 06:51:10 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

            •  Not a thin reed, no they don't take a long time (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              orlbucfan, stevenaxelrod

              At this time of the cycle, they're not going to waste time like that.  One side might sit tight, not both.

              What Romney is doing is especially telling.  He's the one who is still losing and needs to make a move.  If Wisconsin is tight and it's because of his running mate, he needs to make it pop there, some ads to nudge it are a perfect thing to do.  Romney's not cash-poor anymore, he's advertising in the same 8 states as Obama.  He might still trail in what he can spend pre-convention acceptance, but not by a lot anymore.

              When both sides are refraining from ad spending in a state, it's because that state isn't competitive enough to flip it.

              44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

              by DCCyclone on Thu Aug 23, 2012 at 06:38:36 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  Might They Simply Be Holding Their Fire.... (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                aamail6

                ....until after the conventions?  I find it hard to believe that with Romney's 2-1 cash advantage that he's gonna continue to not invest in Wisconsin.

                •  Why wait? (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  DCCyclone, EcosseNJ

                  He knows he has X dollars to use in this or that place, and while he can't be sure of the future, he has the outside spending advantage (plus, if it makes a difference, a huge personal fortune) now and will continue to do so unless Buffett drops $200 million for Obama. Basically, it's not as if he's insure of his inheritance; he's just waiting for the check to come in. And since he needs to try to expand the map in some way, with Pennsylvania and Michigan being off the table...

                  "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

                  by bjssp on Thu Aug 23, 2012 at 06:47:58 AM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  "Why wait" is right (0+ / 0-)

                    "Hold fire" for what?

                    Why is it a problem to advertise during the conventions?  They are partisan events, not unifying national events lilke the Olympics...and they aired ads during the Olympics!

                    44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                    by DCCyclone on Thu Aug 23, 2012 at 06:52:35 AM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  I don't think it's a problem (1+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      DCCyclone

                      to advertise during the conventions. As I said below, a big part of me thinks that this is when the really brutal attacks on Romney-Ryan will start. After all, why give these guys any breathing room?

                      "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

                      by bjssp on Thu Aug 23, 2012 at 06:54:29 AM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

                    •  Plenty of money to saturate the airwaves now (1+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      DCCyclone

                      Just ballparking -- say a 30 sec ad costs 1k. At that rate million can buy 1000 spots.

                      That's probably plenty for one ad run for most individual states (except maybe Florida).

                      With both campaigns taking in around $100m/month now (round number) -- split mostly over 8 states, there's plenty of money to "carpet bomb" all swing states with different kinds of ads.

                      It's not that hard to redeploy an ad buy here and there.

                      "I hope; therefore, I can live."
                      For SSP users, see my Tips for Swingnuts diary

                      by tietack on Thu Aug 23, 2012 at 07:36:56 AM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

                    •  Preserving Money For the Late Deluge..... (0+ / 0-)

                      Tom Emmer came within a hair's breadth of becoming the Governor of Minnesota in 2010 by waiting until the final few weeks and then saturating the airwaves with endless ads.  If Romney were to do the same in Wisconsin, it would likely have an impact.

                      •  No, you don't do that unless you're cash-poor (1+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        stevenaxelrod

                        Mitt has plenty of money to get on the air right away.  There's nothing to wait for.  And his general election funding can start getting spent just one week from now! A late deluge is always worse than an earlier deluge.

                        And you can't compare MN-Gov or any other downballot with a Presidential, because a Presidential develops very early and voters are already 100% tuned in and really have been all summer.

                        Mitt is not going to win Wisconsin, difficult for the GOP in Presidentials, with a few weeks of ads.  He needs to start now.  If any bump is real, he needs to be on the air to solidify it.

                        This is why I'm skeptical.

                        I guess we'll find out Monday as the convention is starting where the GOP convention week's ad buys are.  We'll see then if anything has changed.  For now, it hasn't.

                        44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                        by DCCyclone on Thu Aug 23, 2012 at 09:38:23 AM PDT

                        [ Parent ]

                •  In PA, only super pacs are running ads for both (0+ / 0-)

                  Mitt and Obama....several of the Rovian big money groups and the Obama super pac and that is it.

                  It has been a few weeks since I saw an ad by Mittens or Obama, but a ton of anti Obama ads by these groups.

                  Follow PA Keystone Liberals on Twitter: @KeystoneLibs

                  by wishingwell on Thu Aug 23, 2012 at 07:14:42 AM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  Romney himself never ran ads in Pennsylvania (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    wishingwell

                    If Pennsylvanians saw any Romney campaign ads, not by his support groups, then they had to be national ad buys.  Romney never bought Pennsylvania air time.

                    44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                    by DCCyclone on Thu Aug 23, 2012 at 07:39:19 AM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

          •  Have they attacked on the Romney-Ryan plan (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            wishingwell

            in any new way yet? As jncaa said, I am obsessed with that, but only because it seems like such a ripe target.

            My current thinking is the relative dearth of ads is because the Republicans haven't had the convention yet. Once that starts, and specifically once Romney starts spending his general election money, it'll be a mess for them.

            "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

            by bjssp on Thu Aug 23, 2012 at 06:42:58 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Did you hear of the radio ads? (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              stevenaxelrod

              They're doing different radio ads in different states attacking different specified aspects of the Ryan plan, tailored to each state.

              I do think radio ads could be underappreciated, people still listen to the radio.

              But TV ads are king.

              The education ad attacking Ryan is on TV, they seem to think that's as potent as Medicare.

              44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

              by DCCyclone on Thu Aug 23, 2012 at 06:54:26 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  I live in New York and wouldn't have (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                stevenaxelrod

                heard anything, unless it was part of a national ad buy. Nor did I catch anything online.

                There are plenty of worthy topics, student loans being one of them. (If I am at OFA, I'm blasting that on every college campus in the country from now until election day.) But, as always, I think the real meat is with Romney-Ryan. The voters most likely to care about it are the biggest part of the electorate. They also happen to be the ones we might struggle with the most, specifically seniors.

                It does seem odd to me that they haven't been savaging him just yet, given what they can actually say without exaggerating. Perhaps there isn't a plan, and I am wrong. I, of course, hold no special knowledge. I just can't help but think that they are waiting for some particulate date. If they are in fact waiting, Monday or Tuesday seems as good a time as any, given that could be the point where more people begin to form an impression of these guys.

                "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

                by bjssp on Thu Aug 23, 2012 at 07:00:34 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

    •  As a Buckeye Stater (5+ / 0-)

      I am finding it rather hard to believe that Obama is doing better, and has a better chance of winning Ohio than Wisconsin right now.  

      For all of you concerned about Wisconsin and other states, I implore you not to take your eyes off of Ohio.  Romney losing Ohio = Romney is dead meat.

      •  My mantra for years has been (6+ / 0-)

        to trust the polls over intuition and punditry.

        I don't think Wisconsin has settled out just yet, but most polls are in agreement that the President is doing surprisingly well in Ohio.

        Ok, so I read the polls.

        by andgarden on Thu Aug 23, 2012 at 05:42:21 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  I can believe that right now (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike, gramofsam1, pademocrat

        Romney may be closer in WI than in OH, because of two very special factors there - the recall election, and the Ryan pick. Unfortunately the WI polling suggests strongly that the recall election was a double loss for Dems - not only did Walker survive, Obama's numbers also took a big hit from which they had not recovered even prior to the Ryan pick, and the "home state" effect of that seems to have netted another 3 points or so for Romney.

        I expect Obama's position in WI to recover a little prior to the election, but I don't think it is going to be anything like the 9+ points more democratic than OH that it was in 08. The two could really run very close.

        •  I'm not sure the recall has anything to do with it (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          wishingwell, DCCyclone, itskevin

          Obama lead in most polls by a decent margin, after the recall.

          Marquette, I think, had him up in high single digits in June and/or July.

          I do think this is mostly a Ryan bounce. But I'm cautious to not just right it off as a bounce. I think the election might be closer as a result, but I think Obama will still win.

      •  OFA has done a sterling job (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike, askew, MBishop1

        of making him unappealing to that state, it seems. Like really, really good.

        "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

        by bjssp on Thu Aug 23, 2012 at 06:48:38 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  I think Ohio is pretty good for Obama (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Christopher Walker

        Because of the auto bailout.

        24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Gregg/Simpson for Governor! Donnelly for Senate! Mullen for Congress!

        by HoosierD42 on Thu Aug 23, 2012 at 08:20:44 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  What is going (5+ / 0-)

      What is going to kill Romney in Florida is the Hispanic and the black vote.  

      I also believe Bill Nelson will be spending a ton of money counteracting the Medicare BS put out by the Republicans.  Bill Nelson has always had a large war chest and Florida is ground zero for the Medicare fight.  

      •  One important factor in Florida (3+ / 0-)

        That people often forget is that Cuban Hispanics are NOT the same as Mexican or Puerto Rican Hispancs. Cuban Hispancs make up a huge chunk of Florida's Hispanic population. Not that there are no Mexicans or Puerto Ricans, but they are small by comparison. So if Obama is winning Hispanics overall 70-30, it will be something like 55-45 in Florida.

      •  If OFA also pounds home the message on Medicare (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        orlbucfan, MBishop1

        and Social Security, I would expect seniors to move toward Obama as well.

        The voter ID crap will make Florida and Ohio closer than they should be, but shouldn't make more than a point or so difference in the outcome. I don't see Romney winning without both Florida and Ohio.

        NC-4 (soon to be NC-6) Obama/Biden 2012

        by bear83 on Thu Aug 23, 2012 at 07:14:18 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  What I worry about in Florida is voter (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike, BroadwayBaby1

        disenfranchisement and so many being thrown out of the voting rolls and more dirty tricks and ways to keep people from voting.  I worry about it too in PA but more so in Florida as the President won PA by 13 points and this state has gone blue since 88 for President.  Florida is truly a swing state.

        Follow PA Keystone Liberals on Twitter: @KeystoneLibs

        by wishingwell on Thu Aug 23, 2012 at 07:18:30 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I'm a long time central FL resident. (4+ / 0-)

          Even though I watch very little TV, I've seen ads for both sides. My hubby and I read the fine print so we can spot Karl Rove whom we detest.

          Retch Scott is still extremely unpopular here. That will help Obama. The big key is my area: what they call "the I-4 corridor." Both Obama and Gore won Orlando. POTUS will probably win Tampa again. A lot of folks over there hate the RNC convention cos it's causing a lot of headaches w/road closings, etc. The corridor runs between Tampa on the west and Daytona on the east.

          It's always been said that the American voting public generally starts paying attention after Labor Day. We'll see.

          Inner and Outer Space: the Final Frontiers.

          by orlbucfan on Thu Aug 23, 2012 at 08:07:07 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  i know what Bentivolio looks like... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike

    but now i can't stop picturing him as sam kinison in back to school. i wonder how many of Bentivolio's former students are campaigning for taj, just for spite.

    "...i also also want a legally binding apology." -George Rockwell

    by thankgodforairamerica on Thu Aug 23, 2012 at 05:14:53 AM PDT

  •  National Journal house race rankings (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, DCCyclone, SLDemocrat, thurst

    “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

    by Paleo on Thu Aug 23, 2012 at 05:16:00 AM PDT

    •  Hard to take this early take too seriously... (0+ / 0-)

      When they have David Rivera's seat at #44 and stress Garcia's baggage {???!!!!}.  Well, it will likely break one way -- for one party or the other in a month or so, and with the Ryan plan front and center, do feel strongly that by October, we'll see way more R seats in the top 50.  

      •  Rivera had major baggage last time & won big (0+ / 0-)

        He won a surprisingly big victory, even taking into account the anti-Dem wave, in an election after he was clearly already exposed as a crook.

        Hopefully this new round of trouble will tip the scales, but we should know not to be overconfident in this district, we've been burned badly a few times in recent years here.

        44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Thu Aug 23, 2012 at 09:18:10 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Dr. Syed Taj for MI-11 (13+ / 0-)

    He is the real deal, but an unconventional candidate. (Muslim, and a naturalized US citizen.)

    He would be an excellent Congressman, and would work to defend and enhance the Affordable Care Act. He needs our help.  

    If you live in the 11th, volunteer.  If you don't, send some cash.  The Ron Paul PAC has already committed over $300K to this race.

    tajforcongress.com

    •  I've been tooting the horn for Dr. Taj for months (8+ / 0-)

      ...here on dKos and elsewhere, and while everyone has been amused by the McCotter trainwreck story, there doesn't seem to be much actual support.

      The ActBlue page that I set up for Dr. Tajhas, to date, only garnered a whopping...$21.00.

      He's a fantastic candidate, guys, and a progressive's dream: He supports single payer, is likeable on the campaign trail, has a solid base of support and, thanks to McCotter's meltdown and the subsequent GOP comedy of errors, is in a position to pick up an otherwise solidly Republican seat!

      Now, I'll be the first to admit that if he wins, it's also quite likely to be a one-term wonder, but so what? If he helps us retake the majority in the House, it'll still hold the fort for another 2 years, and he would have the power of incumbency by that point, so he might be able to stick it out for a few terms after all.

      •  Well, the primary for this seat was (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike, wishingwell

        just held on August 7 and there was another Democrat in the field.  Together, the two Democrats got fewer votes than the Republican, whose looking for a more lucrative public job.

        I suppose sending failures off to Congress has it's advantages.  A failure is then beholden to whoever paid for or engineered his electoral success.  We have one of those in NH, too, in Frank Guinta.

        Anyway, Taj looks good, especially if the other Dem joins forces.  One reason bullies have more success than they deserve is because, when nobody stands up to them, the intimidation works.

        Willard's forte = "catch 'n' cage". He's not into "catch and release."

        by hannah on Thu Aug 23, 2012 at 06:18:16 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Strategic longterm decision? (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike

        MI-11 is just slightly red: The PVI is about R+2.

        Maybe the DCCC assumes that they can easily beat Benvolio with a stronger candidate in 2014 who is able to keep the seat for a couple of terms.

        The most dangerous worldview is the worldview of those who never viewed the world - Alexander von Humboldt

        by germanliberal on Thu Aug 23, 2012 at 07:06:19 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Obama isn't on top of the ticket in 2014 (7+ / 0-)

          There will never be a better time than now, not until redistricting.

        •  If that's their thought process, they're idiots. (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          LordMike, Marcus Graly

          2 years is an eternity in politics. We need to retake the House NOW, not in 2 years.

          Plus, who the hell knows what the situation will be in 2 years, either locally or nationally?

          For that matter, Dr. Taj is about as strong a candidate as I've seen given the new district (Gary Peters would've been ideal if he'd decided to run in MI-11 instead of MI-14, but he didn't, so that's moot).

        •  No (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          LordMike, jncca, Christopher Walker

          They don't plan ahead like that under any circumstances, they make decisions only for right now, this election.

          And even if one hypothetically wanted to consider that, doing so here would be patently stupid.  There is no "better" candidate to plan on finding in 2 years.

          They will invest in this race if they think they have something close to a 50-50 shot at winning.

          And honestly, the GOPer's new troubles here make it hard to believe Taj can't win and might not be at least 50-50 odds to actually win.

          44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Thu Aug 23, 2012 at 08:41:29 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Living in the area myself (I'm about 50 feet... (0+ / 0-)

            ...from the border of Bloomfield Hills proper), I'd give him about 40% odds under the circumstances.

            If McCotter hadn't fucked up, I'd have given Taj about a 5% chance.

            If Cassis had won the GOP primary, I'd have given Taj about a 20% chance.

            With Bentivolio as his opponent, I give him about a 40% chance.

            Not fantastic, but certainly worth coughing up some green.

  •  Bill Clinton cuts an ad for Obama (12+ / 0-)

    “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

    by Paleo on Thu Aug 23, 2012 at 05:30:10 AM PDT

  •  NV Sen SUSA: Heller 44-39 (6+ / 0-)

    With Heller leading among Latinos by 10.  Right.

    http://www.lvrj.com/...

    “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

    by Paleo on Thu Aug 23, 2012 at 05:33:31 AM PDT

  •  The Dems who are supposed to be winning (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, pademocrat

    a national majority in Congress to go with the President's win are just not very bright.

    You can't make this stuff up.

    by David54 on Thu Aug 23, 2012 at 05:44:52 AM PDT

  •  Daily Kos Elections Trivia: (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, pademocrat

    Is this the first time since we've been doing the morning digest that the highlight story has been the first story from yesterday?  

  •  IL-10 Brad Schneider attacks Bob Dold! on ENDA (6+ / 0-)

    Amazingly enough, given the approval message I'm guessing he's actually running this on the air? Not sure if it will be effective, but good for Schneider. hopefully it will erode Dold!'s "socially moderate" image.

    Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

    by sapelcovits on Thu Aug 23, 2012 at 06:10:27 AM PDT

  •  LA Times national poll: Obama 48-45 (11+ / 0-)

    48-46 among likelies.

    http://www.latimes.com/...

    “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

    by Paleo on Thu Aug 23, 2012 at 06:10:56 AM PDT

  •  Sheriff candidate in my county advocate violence (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    SLDemocrat, wishingwell, KingofSpades

    Sheriff Candidate OK With Deadly Force To Stop Abortions. This is in NH!

    For those who don't know this in NH largest county. It contains the two largest cities Manchester, and Nashua, as well as it's 5 and 6th biggest.

    -1.63/ -1.49 "Speaking truth to power" (with snark of course)!

    by dopper0189 on Thu Aug 23, 2012 at 06:19:53 AM PDT

    •  County sheriffs don't have a lot of power (0+ / 0-)

      New Hampshire, like most New England states is more organized by towns than counties.

      But I agree that's batshit crazy. Incumbent sheriff James Hardy is probably going to win reelection though, County Sheriff is among the lowest of low-information offices.

      24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Gregg/Simpson for Governor! Donnelly for Senate! Mullen for Congress!

      by HoosierD42 on Thu Aug 23, 2012 at 08:31:09 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  RAss CT: Obama 51-43 (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike

    “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

    by Paleo on Thu Aug 23, 2012 at 06:27:12 AM PDT

    •  ras up to his old tricks (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      wishingwell

      Show some outrageous polls then throw the democrats a bone like the NM poll yesterday showing Obama up 14. The people in Ct are not going to elect a GOP senators while voting for Obama by a good margin.

      •  That is a narrow margin for Obama in CT (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Mark27

        so I think it is consistent with the senate result.

      •  I'm orginally from CT (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike, Mark27

        CT's wealth is driven by Fairfield County which is all financial people. I am sure they have switched from Obama to Romney because of Dodd Frank etc. Also, it appears from here in NY that McMahon is running a much better campaign than last time.

        2012: It's about the Supreme Court. Follow me on Twitter @farrellmcmanus

        by HarlemUSA on Thu Aug 23, 2012 at 07:25:48 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I am from CT too but (0+ / 0-)

          Fairfield County is not "all financial people"--you're focusing on Darien, New Canaan, Westport, Fairfield, and parts of Greenwich and Stamford, but there's also Bridgeport, Stratford, Danbury, Bethel, Norwalk, and less-than-ritzy parts of Greenwich and Stamford.  It probably has a heavier concentration of finance types than many regions but that doesn't mean there are enough to dictate the voting.  And the financial people that are there didn't all vote for Obama and won't all vote for Romney.

          27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

          by Xenocrypt on Thu Aug 23, 2012 at 07:58:15 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Obviously (3+ / 0-)

            I was writing in broad strokes. But Obama is not going to rack up the huge margin he did in 08. I realize Bridgeport is part of Fairfield County. What made his margin as big as it was in CT in 08 was that he was winning in traditionally GOP areas. He was winning college educated voters. That will be diminished this time. My guess is that Romney may win college educated white voters this time. It'll be interesting to watch. I think the Akin/rape flap will help Obama in places like NH and CT. Con voters in NE rabid social conservatism.

            2012: It's about the Supreme Court. Follow me on Twitter @farrellmcmanus

            by HarlemUSA on Thu Aug 23, 2012 at 08:23:50 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  It's true that Obama (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              Tiger in BlueDenver

              did well in much of Greenwich, in Rowayton, and in Southport and some of back Fairfield.  But those areas might be trending D anyway, or they might have reflected--more than caused--Obama's strong overall performance.  I'm not sure.

              27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

              by Xenocrypt on Thu Aug 23, 2012 at 08:49:46 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

      •  Especially Linda McMahon (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        itskevin

        If she couldn't buy her way in in 2010, its not happening in 2012.

  •  First Read ranks the swing states. (12+ / 0-)

    1. North Carolina
    2. Iowa
    3. Florida
    4. Colorado
    5. Virginia
    6. Nevada
    7. Ohio
    8. Wisconsin
    9. New Hampshire

    I think this is a pretty good list.  I have been saying for weeks that NH seems to be slipping away from Romney based on the spending patterns.  Nice for my armchair punditry to be validated by the pros.

    IA for its size is probably the most vigorously contested state and I think it is genuinely close.  This also validates my general sense on that.

    Also some validation for Obama doing well in OH.  Good public and private polling there.  I read somewhere that private polling on both sides in OH is in the mid single digits for Obama.

    And I still don't think WI belongs on this list.  I think there is a temporary Ryan bump, but until one or both campaigns starts spending I won't worry about it.

    White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "Who let the dogs out? Who? Who?" - Mitt Romney, MLK Day 2008.

    by spiderdem on Thu Aug 23, 2012 at 06:49:05 AM PDT

    •  Should clarify (5+ / 0-)

      this is likelihood of flipping from blue to red.

      White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "Who let the dogs out? Who? Who?" - Mitt Romney, MLK Day 2008.

      by spiderdem on Thu Aug 23, 2012 at 06:49:40 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I would have something close to this (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        sacman701, MBishop1

        (I guess they're assuming that IN's already flipped). Slight tweaks  I'd make:

        1. NC
        2. FL
        3. IA
        4. CO
        5. VA
        6. OH
        7. NH
        8. NV
        9. WI

        OH as a more likely hold than NV I just don't believe. It's probably improved its relative position some but it has 9 points to make up. NV has very positive demographic trends which have only got stronger since 2008. Even with its poor economy I think Romney has a mountain to climb there.

        •  NV has a history of terribly (0+ / 0-)

          skewed public polling in favor of Republicans as I'm sure you know.  Public pollsters also effed CO pretty hard in 2010 in favor of Ken Buck.  I am thinking it has to do with the dynamic Hispanic populations in those states.  So I am holding out some hope that both of those are better for Obama than the public polling suggests, but I'm not necessarily banking on it.  They are both very hard fought in terms of advertising dollars.

          White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "Who let the dogs out? Who? Who?" - Mitt Romney, MLK Day 2008.

          by spiderdem on Thu Aug 23, 2012 at 07:10:15 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  I'd put NV below WI (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          LordMike

          Not only do the demographics suck for Romney, the Nevada Republican Party is in serious disarray while the Republican Party of Wisconsin is one of the stronger parties.

          Male, 22, -4.75/-6.92, born and raised TN-05, now WI-02, remorseless supporter of Walker's recall. Pocan for Congress and Baldwin for Senate!

          by fearlessfred14 on Thu Aug 23, 2012 at 08:08:33 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Agreed. I'd Also Put Florida Above Iowa..... (0+ / 0-)

            ....but believe both of them are very much in play.  Still surprising how much Obama's star has dimmed in Iowa given that it's farm and wind energy economy would be reduced to rubble in the Romney-Ryan budgets saw the light of day.

      •  Mines (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Skaje, MBishop1

        1. NC
        2. FL
        3. IA
        4. CO
        5. VA
        6. OH
        7. NV
        8. NH

        I will include Wisconsin when either campaign starts treating it like a swing state.

        White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "Who let the dogs out? Who? Who?" - Mitt Romney, MLK Day 2008.

        by spiderdem on Thu Aug 23, 2012 at 07:19:53 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  You've got my list right there (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MBishop1, spiderdem

          At this point, I think the election is hovering right between #1 and #2, which of course would point to an Obama landslide.  It could get closer, but I would be surprised if it gets much further than #5.

          Ohio is the interesting one, earlier in the year I would have placed it much more likely to go red than Colorado or Virginia.

      •  This list is along the lines of what I have been (0+ / 0-)

        thinking. And I wonder why these super pacs of Rove are spending all this money to air anti Obama ads in PA , one right after another ...day and night.  ?  

        Follow PA Keystone Liberals on Twitter: @KeystoneLibs

        by wishingwell on Thu Aug 23, 2012 at 07:28:18 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  They are trying to soften up (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          DCCyclone, itskevin, wishingwell

          MI, WI, and PA for Romney in the hope that the election will shift and they will become competitive.  They have more money than they know what to do with.

          White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "Who let the dogs out? Who? Who?" - Mitt Romney, MLK Day 2008.

          by spiderdem on Thu Aug 23, 2012 at 07:35:11 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  Mine (0+ / 0-)

      North Carolina
      Iowa
      Florida
      Colorado
      Ohio
      Wisconsin
      Virginia
      New Hampshire
      Nevada

      “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

      by Paleo on Thu Aug 23, 2012 at 06:54:37 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  you do realise you just made WI (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        DCCyclone

        the tipping-point state? DCCyclone is going to have words...

        •  As of now. I guess (0+ / 0-)

          But I expect the margin in the state to widen in polls taken after Labor Day.

          “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

          by Paleo on Thu Aug 23, 2012 at 07:43:12 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Wisconsin should be at the bottom or... (0+ / 0-)

            ...off the list altogether.

            Trust me, it's not more likely to flip than Virginia, where I live.  We have a slight advantage here, but it's not nearly as strong as in Wisconsin.

            I realize people want to trust multiple public polls saying the same thing, but we've been burned by public polling so much the past couple cycles, even where it looks consistent, that trusting it requires pause.

            44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

            by DCCyclone on Thu Aug 23, 2012 at 09:22:10 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

    •  Iowa is strange (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jj32, LordMike

      This was a Bush 2004 state, yet it was CONSISTENTLY in the "solid Obama" column, all throughout 2008, even during the GOP convention bounce! Yet now it's basically break even. Very odd.

    •  I do some scrambling with that list (0+ / 0-)

      I think CO & NV are better for Obama, and North Caroline is better for Romney.

      1. Florida
      2. Iowa
      3. North Carolina
      4. Virginia
      5. Colorado
      6. Ohio
      7. Wisconsin
      8. New Hampshire
      9. Nevada

    •  If they have Ohio that far down (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      itskevin

      Romney's road is super, super tough. He will have to flip NC, Iowa, FL, CO and WI to win. That's a lot of states to flip.

      2012: It's about the Supreme Court. Follow me on Twitter @farrellmcmanus

      by HarlemUSA on Thu Aug 23, 2012 at 07:35:55 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Some surprises to me...... (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      spiderdem, itskevin

      You're right about NH, I had not paid close attention to the ad spending pattern there and am surprised to see it listed as least-likely to flip by NBC.

      But I'd still put it above Wisconsin.  Both campaigns are spending in NH, neither in Wisconsin, and that's conclusive to me until ad spending changes.

      I'm surprised to see Iowa above Florida.  I do believe Iowa is in grave jeapordy, but that's unusually grave when a Democrat is more likely to win Florida.  I realize public polling has had Florida in better shape the past couple months, but I'm not sure anymore how much to trust public polls...but then Mark Halperin reported once way back that a Romney campaign official admitted Mitt had slipped there due to advertising effects at the time.

      One last surprise to me is to see Nevada above Ohio.  All the public polling and demographic data suggest Nevada is almost impossible for Romney, that it would be a huge upset for him to win there.  Ohio, much less so.  Obama is always 48% or higher in Nevada ballot testing, and often breaking 50.  Nonwhite vote growth continues unabated.  And Ohio has had many more tighter results and less evenness in Obama's numbers.

      But on the other hand, this is one more tea leaf that maybe Ohio is becoming something of a real firewall, surprisingly one of Obama's strongest swing states.

      I really think the bottom 4 on that list are virtually unwinnable for Romney, although it's still hard for me to get around New Hampshire being in that category.

      44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Thu Aug 23, 2012 at 08:55:33 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  NH may be experiencing some buyers remorse (4+ / 0-)

        on the Republicans.  They elected an enormously Republican legislature.  The districts are so small there that every underfunded bozo flying under the Tea Party banner was able to win.  These Reps are crazy and many completely unqualified.  They have sought a hard right social agenda that does not reflect New Hampshire voters' values at all.

        White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "Who let the dogs out? Who? Who?" - Mitt Romney, MLK Day 2008.

        by spiderdem on Thu Aug 23, 2012 at 09:24:49 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Pure Michigan nt (0+ / 0-)

    Note to self, stop before I emulate the habits described in this diary.

    by Rustbelt Dem on Thu Aug 23, 2012 at 06:56:46 AM PDT

    •  Living in Northern Indiana.. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Rustbelt Dem

      (less than a mile from the Michigan border, in fact), I hear these radio/TV ads all the time. Between those and Chevrolet/Campbell's ads, I'm getting tired of Tim Allen's voice.

      24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Gregg/Simpson for Governor! Donnelly for Senate! Mullen for Congress!

      by HoosierD42 on Thu Aug 23, 2012 at 08:33:29 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Cincy U Ohio poll: Obama 49-46 (6+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, LordMike, askew, lina, itskevin, EcosseNJ
    These findings are based on the most recent Ohio Poll conducted by the Institute for Policy Research at the University of Cincinnati between August 16 and August 21, 2012.

    A random sample of 847 likely voters from throughout the state was interviewed by landline telephone and cellular telephone

    http://www.latimes.com/...

    But Brown only up 48-47.

    Note:  Obama gets 100% of the AA vote.

    “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

    by Paleo on Thu Aug 23, 2012 at 06:58:45 AM PDT

  •  MO Sen RAss: McCaskill 48 Akin 38 (15+ / 0-)

    “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

    by Paleo on Thu Aug 23, 2012 at 07:02:02 AM PDT

  •  About MI-11 Dr. Taj needs to step up his game... (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Amber6541, IndianaProgressive

    I agree, this race could be a wonderful pick-up opportunity for the Democrats.

    Disclaimer:  I live in area, and have been familiar with Mr. McCotter for many years.

    While I am not surprised at his "flame-out", albeit after the fact, you have to remember Thad McCotter had been very active and successful in Republican politics for many years, with deep ties to the Plymouth-Northville community he represented for many years, both in the house, and prior to that in the State Senate and as a county commissioner.   Remember too McCotter was in the House leadership at least through 2008.  With the Republicans winning governor's seat and both houses of state legislature, they certainly shored up McCotter's seat in terms of base R vote.

    Dr. Taj went into this race under that scenario.  Now ask why he would run in such "underdog" settings.  Is he what you would call a "serious" candidate, or was the whole basis for running a chance to build his public profile in either the private or public sector, as many "sacrificial lamb" candidates do in races where they stand little chance of winning.

    Going into 2012, who knew McCotter would resign in shame?  Taj likely didn't.  

    However, has he the personal resources (or inclination) to run a serious race?  I don't know Dr. Taj, but if he wants the seat, despite a few yards signs, I've seen little evidence he wants it post-McCotter resignation.  For those seeing this, please tell me wrong (and good news if you can provide it).  

    •  Good points (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, Christopher Walker

      Let's not just assume the fact that Bentivolio is a stark raving lunatic is going to be self-evident enough to cost him the election.  Dr. Taj is going to have to go out and win it.

    •  Build his profile? (0+ / 0-)

      Dr. Taj was the Chief of Medicine of a hospital. He stepped down to run for congress. He is also 66 so it would be easy for him to just retire.

      The reason you don't see much now is because it is August. The primary just ended and he probably needs to replenish his coffers. The campaigns focus right now probably is (and it should be) on fundraising. Save these attacks for September and October when people pay more attention.

      M, 22, School: MI-12(new) (Old MI-15), Home: NY-18 (new) (Old NY-19)

      by slacks on Thu Aug 23, 2012 at 09:01:11 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Document Mr Bentivolio’s behavior (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Amber6541

    There may be a good chance one of his students recorded his behavior.

    If so, the video footage should be run as a political ad by a PAC/SuperPAC. He ain’t gonna have much credibility left after that. You betcha!

  •  PA Pres: Obama 49, Romney 40 (14+ / 0-)

    Morning Call/Muhlenberg College poll (422 LV's), 8/20-8/22

    Solid numbers for Obama

    http://politicalwire.com/...

  •  NE 2: Romney 47-43, Terry 46-40 (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    aamail6, askew

    We ask America.

    http://watchdog.org/...

    “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

    by Paleo on Thu Aug 23, 2012 at 08:28:33 AM PDT

    •  Seems plausible (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingTag

      24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Gregg/Simpson for Governor! Donnelly for Senate! Mullen for Congress!

      by HoosierD42 on Thu Aug 23, 2012 at 08:34:33 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  The numbers, at least (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingTag, DCCyclone

        Always skeptical of WAA

        24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Gregg/Simpson for Governor! Donnelly for Senate! Mullen for Congress!

        by HoosierD42 on Thu Aug 23, 2012 at 08:34:51 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  A realistic chance (0+ / 0-)

          Not an Indiana situation.

          “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

          by Paleo on Thu Aug 23, 2012 at 08:36:54 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  ...Are you trying to bait me? (0+ / 0-)

            24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Gregg/Simpson for Governor! Donnelly for Senate! Mullen for Congress!

            by HoosierD42 on Thu Aug 23, 2012 at 08:39:44 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Ha! (0+ / 0-)

              But it would be nice if we actually see a poll from the state.  The last real poll was done nearly 5 months ago.  

              “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

              by Paleo on Thu Aug 23, 2012 at 08:46:15 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  The anti-robopoll law (0+ / 0-)

                Is quite irksome.

                I'm not saying Obama is going to win Indiana in 2012, because OFA has quite obviously abandoned it. But Indiana is not trending red like everyone assumes. If there is a trend at all, it's blue. Democrats just need to put in the effort at the grassroots to make sure than 2008 wasn't a fluke. The legislative gerrymander will probably keep the General Assembly Republican for the decade, but that doesn't mean we shouldn't try.

                24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Gregg/Simpson for Governor! Donnelly for Senate! Mullen for Congress!

                by HoosierD42 on Thu Aug 23, 2012 at 09:06:23 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  trends (0+ / 0-)
                  But Indiana is not trending red like everyone assumes.
                  People assume this? Why? I don't see a reason to think that there's a single state outside the south/border south that is trending red.
                •  Can anyone post a definitive list of states, (0+ / 0-)

                  and their trends?

                  Just looking at voting history, it seems like it is rending red, as they seemed quite democratic in the late 80s to 2000s just by looking at what party held statewide offices as well as the spread on congressional seats.  Looking at this now, it's all red.

                  I know the states like AR and LA are trending away from us, and states like NV and CO are trending towards us, but maybe someone should write a diary analyzing all 50 states, their trends, strength of the trend and why they are trending.

                  Swingnut since 2009, 21, Male, Democrat, CA-49 (home) CA-14 (college) Join r/elections on reddit! Support Sukhee Kang for CA-45!

                  by Daman09 on Thu Aug 23, 2012 at 12:51:05 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

              •  Howey will poll in September (0+ / 0-)

                They're doing to do IN-Sen, and I'm sure will do Presidential numbers, too.  Oh, and the Governor's race I'm sure, FWIW.

                44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                by DCCyclone on Thu Aug 23, 2012 at 09:28:07 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

    •  I want to buy it but don't (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      itskevin

      I don't trust WAA as a rule.

      And I don't trust that Obama is this close to par with 2008 in this district, given it's Nebraska and he's slipped quite a bit from 4 years ago in next-door Iowa.

      That Ewing is that close to Terry is a bit more believable, only because Terry has never been popular, I think he has plenty of reluctant center-right voters who don't like him.  But still, I have a hard time believing Obama isn't unpopular here, and as shit flows downhill, it's hard to believe Ewing is doing quite this well.

      I'll tell ya, though, if Ewing pulls off an upset, it's one helluva coup for us to elect a black Democrat to Congress from Nebraska!

      44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Thu Aug 23, 2012 at 09:31:18 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  About some positive SC and Georgia polls for (0+ / 0-)

    Obama, while I understand skepticism, with the even still increasing African American vote for Obama, and GOP attempts at abortion news control (hurting Evangelical turnout? with already some latent anti-LDS sentiment) is it that unlikely one or both could be in play, at least enough to distract Republican time and money.

    An all-blue east and West Coast?

    "A young man who wishes to remain a sound Atheist cannot be too careful of his reading. There are traps everywhere ". C. S. Lewis

    by TofG on Thu Aug 23, 2012 at 09:27:55 AM PDT

  •  I am on the train right now, so I cannot watch (0+ / 0-)

    streaming video, but the title "Morris: Akin story is now 'a big plus for Romney'"

    http://video.foxnews.com/...

    Might Morris outdo his 2008 predictions this year?

    Registered in NY-02, College CT-01, Spent most of the rest of my life on the border of NY-08 and NY-15

    by R30A on Thu Aug 23, 2012 at 12:17:53 PM PDT

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