So, as it happened, Thursday was the day when pretty much every November race got polled. And, for the first time, a few of those polls were ones conducted after a weekend and early week dominated by the Todd Akin controversy.
Is it having a polling impact? The short, and easy answer is: perhaps. Without question, after two days of fairly mediocre polling (enough to bring an avalanche of Eeyores into the comments section of the Wrap), Thursday's numbers for the Democrats and for the president were markedly more positive than the ones that preceded them earlier in the week. However, it is most definitely premature to insist on the cause-and-effect of today's better polling news for the blue team.
With that, on with the (shitload of) numbers:
PRESIDENTIAL GENERAL ELECTION TRIAL HEATS:
NATIONAL (Fox News): Romney d. Obama (45-44)
NATIONAL (Gallup Tracking): Obama tied with Romney (46-46)
NATIONAL (LA Times/USC): Obama d. Romney (48-45)
NATIONAL (Rasmussen Tracking): Obama tied with Romney (45-45)
CONNECTICUT (Rasmussen): Obama d. Romney (51-43)
FLORIDA (Quinnipiac/CBS News): Obama d. Romney (49-46)
MICHIGAN (Glengariff Group for local media): Obama d. Romney (48-42)
MISSOURI (PPP): Romney d. Obama (52-42)
NEBRASKA 2nd DISTRICT (We Ask America—R): Romney d. Obama (47-43)
OHIO (Quinnipiac/CBS News): Obama d. Romney (50-44)
OHIO (Univ. of Cincinnati "Ohio Poll"): Obama d. Romney (49-46)
PENNSYLVANIA (Muhlenberg College/Allentown Morning Call): Obama d. Romney (49-40)
WISCONSIN (Quinnipiac/CBS News): Obama d. Romney (49-47)
DOWNBALLOT POLLING:
FL-SEN (Quinnipiac/CBS News): Sen. Bill Nelson (D) 50, Connie Mack IV (R) 41
MI-SEN (Glengariff Group for local media): Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) 48, Pete Hoekstra (R) 40
MO-GOV (PPP): Gov. Jay Nixon (D) 46, Dave Spence (R) 37
MO-SEN (Rasmussen): Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) 48, Todd Akin (R) 38
NE-02 (We Ask America—R): Rep. Lee Terry (R) 46, John Ewing (D) 40
NV-SEN (SurveyUSA): Sen. Dean Heller (R) 44, Shelley Berkley (D) 39
NM-SEN (Rasmussen): Martin Heinrich (D) 48, Heather Wilson (R) 41
NC-02 (PPP for the Wilkins campaign): Rep. Renee Ellmers (R) 44, Steve Wilkins (D) 28
NC-08 (Anzalone-Liszt for the Kissell campaign): Rep. Larry Kissell (D) 43, Richard Hudson (R) 39
OH-SEN (Quinnipiac/CBS News): Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) 48, Josh Mandel (R) 41
OH-SEN (Univ. of Cincinnati "Ohio Poll"): Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) 48, Josh Mandel (R) 47
TX-14 (Anzalone Liszt for the Lampson campaign): Nick Lampson (D) 44, Randy Weber (R) 40
VA-SEN (PPP): Tim Kaine (D) 46, George Allen (R) 46
WI-SEN (Quinnipiac/CBS News): Tommy Thompson (R) 50, Tammy Baldwin (D) 44
A few thoughts, as always, await you just past the jump...
Arguably the most optimistic poll in the bunch of presidential polls for the Democrats today is the Muhlenberg College/Morning Call poll which shows Barack Obama up by nine points over Mitt Romney in Pennsylvania.
It is worth noting that the last time that Muhlenberg College tested the presidential race, in April, they gave Obama a lead of just five points. The lead in today's poll release is more comparable to the one the president enjoyed in a late February Muhlenberg poll, at a time when his national numbers were a bit more robust than they have been as of late.
But amid all of the data points in today's Muhlenberg survey, this one might be the most instructive:
The poll of 422 likely voters was conducted Monday Aug. 20 through Wednesday Aug. 22 and has a margin of error of +/- 5 percent.
Aside from the one-day samples by the House of Ras, and the Rasmussen daily tracking poll, this is the only poll in today's set of polls that was conducted entirely after the Todd Akin story broke as the weekend drew to a close. A couple of days ago, when I noted on Tuesday that the GOP was in the midst of a run of pretty decent polling (especially downballot), I also speculated that the GOP taking it on the chin for a couple of news cycles courtesy of Akin's interview might halt that spurt of momentum. This is the first poll that might speak to that, since it is the first multi-day sample I've seen (outside of the Rasmussen tracker) that was conducted entirely after Akin's interview became part of the public conversation.
Of course, there is a tremendous potential for error in drawing conclusions from a single poll. But this may be something to watch as the week wears on, prior to the GOP gathering in Tampa next week. The single-day polls, for what it is worth, have been much more equivocal this week, with Democrats doing worse than one might expect in Missouri (PPP) and Connecticut (Rasmussen), but a bit better than one might expect in New Mexico (Rasmussen).
So, this is worth watching. It might amount to nothing, but given that the public quite clearly does not see the world the way Akin does (the polls on this, even in reddish Missouri, have been astoundingly clear, no matter the identity of the pollster), it is worth keeping an eye on it.
In other polling news...
- Both daily tracking polls also moved in the president's direction today, with Gallup moving for the first time in over a week. But another poll, this one from Fox News, went sharply the other direction. After giving the president a nine-point lead (and leading to an avalanche of snickering on Twitter about Fox News having to report on a poll with Romney getting smoked), their newest poll has Mitt Romney up by a single point. Notably, this is their first poll with a likely voter sample. Among registered voters, which would provide an apples-to-apples comparison to their previous poll, Romney continued to trail Obama, albeit by a considerably smaller edge (two points).
- Two House internal polls out today provide head scratchers, but for entirely different reasons. In the case of the poll out of the Lone Star State showing Democrat Nick Lampson leading in the GOP-held open seat in TX-14, the head scratcher is: why did team Lampson wait three months to drop this poll? The poll was in the field until late May, though the polling memo was released this week. A guess? They polled the best against Weber, and sat on it because they didn't want to jeopardize his standing in the GOP runoff, which happened two full months after the primaries in late May. But that is purely a guess on my part.
The second head scratcher (which I initially forgot about...sorry Daily Kos Elections readers!) comes from that Nebraska poll. The write-up for the poll says it was released by the Ewing campaign, which makes sense, as it is a pretty good poll for the Democrat in what is seen as a second-tier pickup opportunity for the Democrats. But the pollster is We Ask America, which is (as regular Wrap readers well know) a Republican outfit. Does this mean they did an unsponsored poll in Nebraska, and Ewing was sending around the results? Or does this mean that the Democratic nominee in NE-02 decided to sign up a Republican pollster? Very odd.
- About that Rasmussen poll in Missouri, the one that has Claire McCaskill up double digits on Todd Akin. To be sure, it has garnered a ton of attention today. One notable skeptic, however? Check out the comments of the woman out in front:
Comment. Of. The. Day.