I hate to be the bearer of any bad news, but I think it's important to discuss the bad as well as the good.
As Greg Sargent explains at his blog, while today’s big New York Times/CBS/Quinnipiac poll found plenty of good news for Barack Obama, there was some puzzling, negative stuff too.
The positive Greg notes:
In Ohio, Wisconsin, and Florida, voters think Obama would do a better job than Mitt Romney handling Medicare by margins of eight to 10 points.
But taking a closer look is revealing:
In two out of the three states, voters over 65 prefer Romney on Medicare, and in the third, Obama leads, but by a smaller margin. The breakdown sent over by CBS:
* In Florida, 48 percent of seniors say Romney would do a better job on Medicare, versus 44 percent who say that about Obama (the Ryan pick was supposed to be particularly problematic in this state).
* In Ohio, 49 percent of seniors say Romney would do a better job on Medicare, versus 43 percent who say that about Obama.
* In Wisconsin, 49 percent say Obama would do a better job on Medicare, versus 46 percent who say that about Romney. Close.
Few more comments under the squiggly.
Greg adds
What’s striking is that the poll also finds very big majorities of seniors in all three states support leaving Medicare as it is, while small minorities support changing it so government provides fixed amounts to spend on insurance. In Florida, it’s 67-24; in Ohio it’s 68-22; and in Wisconsin it’s 60-25. Yet in two of the three states — ones that could decide the presidency — seniors support Romney over Obama on the issue. (A Post poll also found seniors view Ryan favorably by 50-35.)
In one sense, this may not be that big a deal. As Ed Kilgore has written, seniors have already become a very pro-Republican demographic in any case, and Ryan has only been on the ticket for a short time. But it still seems worth noting seniors’ willingness to trust Romney on Medicare, particularly given that his vice president is the chief architect behind the very type of changes they overwhelmingly oppose.
Of course, this is just one negative tidbit within a generally favorable poll. Still, I find it frustrating, if not puzzling, that Romney appears to be winning the Medicare argument
anywhere.
The question is whether the negative findings also indicate an opportunity for Obama. It's tempting to say that the results are merely a matter of insufficient education, and that a sustained campaign will change minds.
Or perhaps their views are intractable?
What do you think?