Edit #2: Mea culpa. The NHC decided to go with 70 MPH instead of the 75 MPH everyone thought they would. I've changed the title to reflect it.
Edit: Isaac will very likely be upgraded to a hurricane in the next NHC update. Hurricane Hunter aircraft have found an area of hurricane-force winds.
Too much information to cohesively put it into an essay-type diary, so here's the skinny:
- Isaac is still a Tropical Storm with 65 MPH winds. It's getting deeper though, with pressure down to 988 millibars last I checked. It's strengthening but pulling an Irene -- spreading out its wind field in exchange for intensity. In other words, it's strengthening by extending its winds out for hundreds of miles, instead of having a smaller, consolidated core of very intense winds.
The estimated wind field for Tropical Storm Isaac.
Probability of tropical storm force winds (39+ MPH sustained for at least one minute) as Isaac moves through.
- The models are almost perfectly agreed that it will make landfall on the Mouth of the Mississippi River in Louisiana during the day Tuesday.
The 11AM forecast track and 1PM stats on Tropical Storm Isaac.
- Isaac (and its eventual remnants) will move inland the rest of the week and cause immense rains and bring a risk of tornadoes.
- Isaac is expected to produce upwards of 15-20+ inches of rain along the northern Gulf Coast.
Rainfall forecast over the next 5 days, in inches.
- Isaac will produce a 6 to 12 foot surge in parts of the northern Gulf Coast, including the New Orleans area. Remember that surges can be amplified due to microgeographical effects such as shallower waters or focused bays and inlets.
STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL
CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING
WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF
THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...
* SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI...AND ALABAMA...6 TO 12 FT
* SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA...3 TO 6 FT
* FLORIDA PANHANDLE...3 TO 6 FT
* FLORIDA WEST COAST INCLUDING APALACHEE BAY...1 TO 3 FT
The probability of seeing a storm surge greater than 2 feet during Isaac.
- There are more evacuations and school/government closings than I can list, so check with your local news sources for the latest on that front.
- There is a tornado threat each day as Isaac moves northwest. Even though they're going to be on the smaller side, even the weakest tornado can do damage to property and people.
Severe weather outlook for Tuesday. The risk is tornadoes (in addition to tropical storm/hurricane force winds).
I've got classes and other things that I need to get done today, so I won't be able to tend to the diary as closely as I normally would. Be safe, everyone.
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