There's lots of speculation about what will be the core narrative for the Obama campaign, in the buildup to his convention speech. Today, the "Are you better off today...?" meme is running pretty hard in the media, and getting good pushback. It strikes me as a distraction - Romney trying to be Reagan.
The main critique of Romney's speech is that he didn't really say much about what policies he would commit to, what actions he would take. He cut & pasted the CBO's employment numbers in, and that was about it. The core Republican criticism of the Obama campaign, in a textbook case of attacking your opponent on your main weakness, is that Obama is running an Anyone But Romney campaign, rather than proposing a clear vision for his reelection.
We could wait for Obama's speech to find out whether that's the case or not, or we could just read his interview with Time's Michael Sherer on August 30: http://swampland.time.com/..., where (I believe) all is revealed, and it's awesome!
I fully recommend reading the full interview, since Fair Use doesn't let me post enough content to really make the case...
1-What happened to the Hope and Change?
Obama campaigned in 2008 on providing economic stability and opportunity for the middle class because that's what he's committed to, and will continue to do so:
...everything I’ve done — most of the time in cooperation with Congress, but sometimes working around Congress — has been geared toward that central goal of making sure that we have a strong, vibrant, growing middle class and we got ladders of opportunity for people who are willing to work hard to get into the middle class.
2-What's the platform for 2012?
Immigration, energy independence (with an emphasis on efficiency and alternative energy), infrastructure, and increasing government efficiency. Immigration is a great issue to open with, since after Romney's defeat, it will be obvious to Republicans that they have to do more to win over Latinos, and can score political points by supporting immigration reform. Energy independence is a soft approach, given the looming environmental crisis, but promoting energy efficiency and alternative energy is a good step in the right direction, adds jobs, and promotes industry. Obama will likely use current oil & gas subsidies for negotiation. Investments in infrastructure are necessary, create jobs, and lubricate the economic engine. Government efficiency/reducing waste should in theory align with Republican goals, but even if it doesn't, Obama can reduce costs and increase effectiveness:
I think we can get immigration reform done. The time is right for it. We used to have bipartisan support for it. That will continue to be a top priority for me.
I think there’s a lot more progress that we can make on the energy front, not only developing traditional sources of energy — the natural-gas boom, I think, could have huge impact on our energy independence as well as geopolitical implications, making us less reliant on other countries for energy. But also the work that we need to do to become more energy efficient — building on the doubling of fuel-efficiency standards on cars — I want to make sure that we’re increasing energy efficiency in buildings and schools and hospitals, which could put people back to work and save us money in the long run.
We still need to rebuild our infrastructure. And I think there’s still a lot we can do to reform our government — the whole government reorganization, streamlining it to eliminate paperwork, make government more customer-friendly — have one-stop shopping for businesses that want to export that need a credit line, that need technical assistance. All those things, I think, we can make government as consumer-friendly as an Apple store and Amazon.
There's a lot more good stuff in here about Obama's approach to Republican obstructionism, increasing taxes for the rich, the role of the progressive grassroots movement, Citizens United, Obamacare, and so on. No mention of military/defense, foreign policy, or women's health issues, but I'm pretty sure they'll be in the speech too. I doubt he's going to target the Supreme Court, and don't know if he'll put gay rights issues in play. It's possible that he calculates that he's already earned that vote, along with low-income voters.
As a general summary, the Obama 2012 campaign is going to be about jobs and the middle class. It's not a perfectly progressive platform, and I don't expect this to be a perfectly progressive 2nd term. The Obama campaign is lining up a very effective counter to the Romney/Ryan campaign, and I think they'll get a good bounce from their convention. Polls still show it to be a close election, so a centrist position emphasizing jobs and the middle class, while pushing Romney to the right, makes sense. And in his 2nd term, I think that Obama will entrench in the center, while providing support as he can for progressive ideals.
Given the demographics and the Romney money machine, I'm fine with a centrist approach. This is probably the last time Republicans can win by carrying the white vote, and apparently they're going all-out. And while Romney's getting tons of 1% money thrown at him, it's not moving the polls signficantly, and it's becoming obvious that they need a new narrative.
Another 4 years gives Obama enough time for his political investments in the economy and health care to pay off and build a strong platform for 2016. Similar to Clinton, I think that Obama is genuinely committed to creating a stable path of long-term success for America. His willingness to compromise with the right is part of that vision, and I respect that.
I think that Obama's convention speech will effectively challenge the Romney 2012 narrative, make strong, positive commitments for his reelection, and provide an inspirational vision for the future. It's not over till it's over, but I think that the main issue now is who gets majorities in Congress.